ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

18z HWRF has an impressive storm system making landfall near New Orleans.



18z HMON has makes landfall along the Florida Bend.

[johngaltfla]

What is this talk of final battle? I could easily see another storm out of the Caribbean later this month or November.

To quote the famous philosopher Bluto from Animal House:

"Over? Did you just say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is!"

(Or December 1st)

It's time for the GFS to win one for America!

[johngaltfla]

18z HWRF has an impressive storm system making landfall near New Orleans.


18z HMON has makes landfall along the Florida Bend.

Thankfully it's not good on undeveloped systems in my opinion. If that track remains constant and other models follow, that would be very, very bad for the West Coast of Florida...

[Dean4Storms]

HMON goes into Panama City in the Panhandle.

[gatorcane]

NASA model EGOM:

[hurricaneCW]

I just hope this doesn't suddenly erupt like Harvey did, not liking the stronger trend on the models.

[USTropics]

Intensity guidance is one of the hardest aspects to forecast, but looking at current model presentation and forecasted conditions, a significant number have limited convection in quadrants two and three (i.e. convection remains on the eastern side, a direct result of shear and continental dry air). A moderate hurricane (cat 1/2) isn't out of the question, though.

[ronjon]

Just awesome....18Z GFS hits me with a weakening depression and then brings a hurricane just to my west....guess I'm leaving for Universal Orlando a day earlier than planned.....MGC

You know MGC, if you go to Orlando one day early, that means the storm will follow you there. Just sayin...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032306
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[CrazyC83]

8PM update out pretty early, development chances up to 50/70%:

https://i.imgur.com/GJg1q9x.png

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

That's quite conservative; I would have it at 60/90 personally.

[USTropics]

8PM update out pretty early, development chances up to 50/70%:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

That's quite conservative; I would have it at 60/90 personally.

I agree, the chances of development are much higher given recent satellite trends. Just 12 hours ago (8AM update) the NHC had this at 0/30% chance of forming though, so per usual they will make gradual shifts instead of one major adjustment.

[TexasSam]

Oh well heck, I truly was hoping the Gulf was done for the year.

[1900hurricane]

Going to ACL in ATX this weekend and don’t want to miss out on a potential hurricane hit. GFS is up on SELA Sunday morning per 12Z. I wouldn’t be home until Monday. Ugh

What's ACL? Tell them you gotta secure your property and prep your home so that you can be there during the potential hurricane.

ACL is Austin City Limits, one of the city's big music festivals.

[SoupBone]

Oh well heck, I truly was hoping the Gulf was done for the year.

So far Texas appears to be outside of the threat chances all things considered.

[chaser1]

Just an observation but its been a few hours since firing up any new convection over (or anywhere near) center.

[psyclone]

Intensity guidance is one of the hardest aspects to forecast, but looking at current model presentation and forecasted conditions, a significant number have limited convection in quadrants two and three (i.e. convection remains on the eastern side, a direct result of shear and continental dry air). A moderate hurricane (cat 1/2) isn't out of the question, though.

A right loaded half-a-cane is a very realistic possibility. Should that happen areas 150 miles east would get more weather than areas 50 miles to the west or so...

[chaser1]

Wow? With a developing system in the W. Caribbean you'd think there'd be a bit more chatter here. I think everyone is somewhat drained from the season thus far lol.

[LarryWx]

Just an observation but its been a few hours since firing up any new convection over (or anywhere near) center.

Dmin?

[GCANE]

TROPICAL-CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[sunnyday]

I've never heard the term "half cane". Could someone pls explain?