ATL: MARIA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Euro dive jose back south and SW again completely breaking the ridge again. maria is heading out.

honestly jose's strength is still the biggest issue. only time will tell..
right now JOSE is only a 100 miles from being over upper 60 to lower 70 degree water. the recent convection likely wont last and jose will beging to wind down once it passes over the water..

though some of the models insist on it strengthening which is why there is low confidence with jose at the moment.

[Blown Away]

96 hours the HP in the W Atlantic vaporizes, nowhere to go but OTS at that point...

[Michele B]

THe crazy thing is. IF Jose was not there. this would be a classic setup of a trough out west and a large building ridge on the east coast. maria could have been a gulf store or a west runner easy.

Still of course a chance of gulf..

I really don't know what to think, models are going crazy with Jose and whats left of Lee, so who knows what Maria is going to do.

I don't think the models know what to think, either!

I guess they've never had to figure out what to do with TWO systems influencing a major hurricane: one east of it, one north of it. The models are probably as confused as we are!

Again proves so much of what I am always saying: there's so much we don't understand about projecting the future of these things.

[txwatcher91]

By hour 120 the Euro has a much stronger Atlantic ridge... Also of note the Euro has consistently been too strong with Jose, off by 10-15mb at times and that's critical as Jose starts to weaken.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm 120 hours.. Jose weakening fast and ridging building off east coast.. maybe carolinas on this if jose weakens quicker.

the only hard thing to predict is the circulations interacting again..

['CaneFreak]

Jose much weaker but still farther west than the previous run at hour 120...

[JBCycloneStan]

for instance on this eueo run if jose stays north and does not drop back south the ridging that develops behind it likely wont break and maria likely to stay on a more wnw course. but the 00z has jose drop back to the south weakening the ridging again and thus maria goes through it.

Yeah... not sure why posters are so convinced of an OTS scenario for Maria given all the confounding factors with Jose. cranky gives a great synopsis of this in his tweet:

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/910166896095498242




Seems like the only way Maria will go OTS is if Jose loops back around, but cranky also point out that factors are converging to kick Jose OTS for good.

['CaneFreak]

WOW. A baby remnant Jose goes into southern NJ / coastal DE at hour 144. Ridge builds in over top. Hmmmmm. Incredibly complex setup here.

[tolakram]

12z Euro so far

[Aric Dunn]

WOW. A baby remnant Jose goes into southern NJ / coastal DE at hour 144. Ridge builds in over top. Hmmmmm. Incredibly complex setup here.

yeah but looks like they are going to do some fujiwhara this run..
but if jose is weaker earlier than this then its a much bigger threat.

[Ken711]

Looks like Outer Banks, VA beach, MD possible landfall.

[tolakram]

Trend. Different solution from 0Z and previous 12Z runs.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro over PR

[tolakram]

[txwatcher91]

Instead of turning NNE to NE this run the Euro takes Maria more N/NNW bringing her a bit closer to the Carolina coast. If the Euro is still overdoing the intensity of Jose like it has in previous runs then that would put Maria dangerously close to the US as the ridge would build in a little stronger than currently modeled.

[tolakram]

Will this run be known for the famous left turn?

[RL3AO]

This is very likely to stay away from the east coast. However, with Jose being modeled oddly at times, I'm still gonna be watching for signs of significant westward shifts.

Sometimes I should just shut up.

[txwatcher91]

Wow by hour 192 it turns NW and is heading for Jersey. The 00z run had it near Bermuda... Just goes to show how sensitive the steering pattern is to a weaker Jose...

[SunnyThoughts]

Oh my. Jose didn't lead her away this time. Hope this doesn't happen.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/910212982608625664




HRD/AOML/NOAA ✔ @HRD_AOML_NOAA
The G-IV jet is in route to collect data around Hurricane Maria https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/1 ... ane-maria/ …
2:44 PM - Sep 19, 2017