ATL: MARIA - Models

[Blinhart]

THe crazy thing is. IF Jose was not there. this would be a classic setup of a trough out west and a large building ridge on the east coast. maria could have been a gulf store or a west runner easy.

Still of course a chance of gulf..

I really don't know what to think, models are going crazy with Jose and whats left of Lee, so who knows what Maria is going to do.

[Blinhart]

THe crazy thing is. IF Jose was not there. this would be a classic setup of a trough out west and a large building ridge on the east coast. maria could have been a gulf store or a west runner easy.

Still of course a chance of gulf..

If Maria ends up landfalling in Florida or worse, heading into the Gulf, that will be one heck of a colossal forecast error by the NHC at days 4 and 5.

But it wouldn't be at day 4 or 5 it would be at day 6/7 at the earliest. So not that much of error. If you notice the cone already has most of the Bahama's in it so just a jog of say 200 miles to the West in the next 2 days of advisories would have Florida in the cone, so not that crazy.

[AutoPenalti]

THat is a big change with the GFS though. it slowly weakens jose out of the 500 mb range and does not turn it back west... but its too late on this run was not enough time for the ridge to build back.. ITs a sign though that there is still great great uncertainty and a narrow window. everyone is still in play from florida to the NE..

lets see what the members do. probably a shift back west with some of the members.

No surprise here, we are still 5 or 6 days outS

[Aric Dunn]

Euro is running..

[gtalum]

THe crazy thing is. IF Jose was not there. this would be a classic setup of a trough out west and a large building ridge on the east coast. maria could have been a gulf store or a west runner easy.

Still of course a chance of gulf..

If Maria ends up landfalling in Florida or worse, heading into the Gulf, that will be one heck of a colossal forecast error by the NHC at days 4 and 5.

But it wouldn't be at day 4 or 5 it would be at day 6/7 at the earliest. So not that much of error. If you notice the cone already has most of the Bahama's in it so just a jog of say 200 miles to the West in the next 2 days of advisories would have Florida in the cone, so not that crazy.

The Day 5 forecast point would have to be at least something like 500 miles off for this to go to Florida. More for the Gulf.

I'm certainly not saying it can't possibly happen, but it would definitely be a surprisingly large error by the NHC.

[TheStormExpert]

Why is it so hard for some to understand that there is a huge weakness thanks to Jose off the east coast which will allow Maria to follow out to sea? We should be be thankful that Jose exists in this case or else much more land would be at threat.

[Ken711]

Why is it so hard for some to understand that there is a huge weakness thanks to Jose off the east coast which will allow Maria to follow out to sea? We should be be thankful that Jose exists in this case or else much more land would be at threat.

I'm thankful for it.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles are tightly clustered east of Bahamas and well east of Florida. Good run-to-run consistency provides high confidence especially since the EPS shows something similar.

[hurricaneCW]

Why is it so hard for some to understand that there is a huge weakness thanks to Jose off the east coast which will allow Maria to follow out to sea? We should be be thankful that Jose exists in this case or else much more land would be at threat.

Less about Jose and more about the synoptic pattern that led to these series of events.

Ironically the blocking pattern, which can often send storms westward into the US will be the reason this time that they'll likely go OTS.

[Aric Dunn]

Why is it so hard for some to understand that there is a huge weakness thanks to Jose off the east coast which will allow Maria to follow out to sea? We should be be thankful that Jose exists in this case or else much more land would be at threat.

It is not hard to understand. It is however not set in stone as their is very low confidence in the models given the situation.

[txwatcher91]

Why is it so hard for some to understand that there is a huge weakness thanks to Jose off the east coast which will allow Maria to follow out to sea? We should be be thankful that Jose exists in this case or else much more land would be at threat.

Because if Jose weakens much faster than expected or scoots off to the east similar to the CMC depiction then the HP builds in and keeps Maria moving WNW to NW towards the US. We are still 6+ days out so a lot will change.

[Aric Dunn]

for instance on this eueo run if jose stays north and does not drop back south the ridging that develops behind it likely wont break and maria likely to stay on a more wnw course. but the 00z has jose drop back to the south weakening the ridging again and thus maria goes through it.

['CaneFreak]

Through 48 hours, the ridge in the Midwest is a bit stronger this run than previous, Jose is a bit stronger but farther east, and the ridging to the north of Maria is a bit less than the previous run.

[AutoPenalti]

This Euro run looks a bit different compared to the midnight run...

[Craters]

First let me say that I'm not a modeler. Most of my understanding is very simplified. Ocean coupling just means the model has some physics to relate how the top layer of the ocean changes during the model run. So a slow moving hurricane mixes the top layer of the ocean and results in colder water. The HWRF attempts to account for this. The global models don't have ocean coupling because it adds additional calculations that really only matter when you have a slow moving hurricane. 99.5% of global model runs are just fine assuming the sea surface Temps are constant on a day to day basis.

Ah. Okay, got it -- thanks!

[Ken711]

for instance on this eueo run if jose stays north and does not drop back south the ridging that develops behind it likely wont break and maria likely to stay on a more wnw course. but the 00z has jose drop back to the south weakening the ridging again and thus maria goes through it.

So basically we need Jose to make the loop south that NHC is forecasting?

[RL3AO]

This is very likely to stay away from the east coast. However, with Jose being modeled oddly at times, I'm still gonna be watching for signs of significant westward shifts.

[Voltron]

Why is it so hard for some to understand that there is a huge weakness thanks to Jose off the east coast which will allow Maria to follow out to sea? We should be be thankful that Jose exists in this case or else much more land would be at threat.

Because if Jose weakens much faster than expected or scoots off to the east similar to the CMC depiction then the HP builds in and keeps Maria moving WNW to NW
towards the US. We are still 6+ days out so a lot will change.

I agree, this is just one solution and a good one, but it could close and US here we come

['CaneFreak]

Looks like this will be another out to sea run from the Euro. Maria is a bit north of the previous run by HR 72 and Jose is a bit stronger and farther west than the previous run.

[Ken711]

This is very likely to stay away from the east coast. However, with Jose being modeled oddly at times, I'm still gonna be watching for signs of significant westward shifts.

I'm trying to understand besides Jose and the ridging, is there an approaching trough as well to aid in keeping Maria away from the east coast as it moves north?