Aric Dunn wrote:RL3AO wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:
That makes sense. Then you have to wonder as MW just mentioned without the forcing how is it going to strengthen? There is definately something missing here. we just have to wait a couple days I suppose.
It looks like pure tropical convection and latent heat release. The GFS redevelops a symmetric precip pattern and a full eye in the simulated IR. The cross-sections also show a remarkable increase in temperatures with the core of the storm and a fully developed eyewall with four strong quadrants. That has to be caused by poor SST data.
Agreed. though there was epsilon back in 2005.. maybe some annular characteristics?
I love the part from Avila
lol
"A few hours after reaching hurricane status, the NHC thought Epsilon reached peak winds, as the storm was about to move over cooler water temperatures. Additionally, the hurricane was expected to stall near the Azores, in contrast to the original forecast of continued acceleration to the northeast.[14] On December 3 it turned due eastward, still maintaining an eye, modest amounts of convection, and outflow.[15] Despite moving into an area of cooler waters and generally unfavorable atmospheric conditions, Epsilon retained its hurricane status; the only entity supporting its intensity was its warm upper-level temperature.[16] By late on December 3, its presentation was described as "remarkably well-organized for a hurricane at high latitude in December... embedded in a strong upper-level westerly wind environment and moving over [70–72 °F (21–22 °C)] water."[17]
As it continued eastward, Epsilon developed characteristics of an annular hurricane;[1] such cyclones, more often found in the deep tropics with greater intensity, have circular eyes, surrounded by a nearly uniform ring of convection and a general lack of thunderstorms outside the ring.[18] For several days, the intensity fluctuated in a narrow range,[1] and although Epsilon was briefly downgraded to tropical storm status on December 4,[19] the NHC assessed it as remaining a hurricane.[1] After it was thought to have weakened, the eye became more symmetric as the ring of convection became stronger. The hurricane remained difficult to forecast, as NHC forecaster Lixion Avila remarked, "There are no clear reasons... and I am not going to make one up... to explain the recent strengthening of Epsilon."[20]"
maybe something like this .. but of course western atlantic
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
