ATL: MARIA - Models

[Ian2401]

Why do the models show Jose strengthening in the NE? Are the not taking into account the SSTs?

[Aric Dunn]

Why do the models show Jose strengthening in the NE? Are the not taking into account the SSTs?

nobody knows... lol thats one of the big issues right now.

[tgenius]

So far in the 00z run in 24 hours GFS has Jose millibars going down 15! Doesn't seem right. Wonder if it needs to be discarded already due to that?

[Aric Dunn]

So far in the 00z run in 24 hours GFS has Jose millibars going down 15! Doesn't seem right. Wonder if it needs to be discarded already due to that?

going down ? why wrong ?

oh nevermind i read that wrong..

yeah 15 mb drop in pressure in 24 hours from a non tropical system over cold water is silly.

[tgenius]

So far in the 00z run in 24 hours GFS has Jose millibars going down 15! Doesn't seem right. Wonder if it needs to be discarded already due to that?

going down ? why wrong ?

Going down as in from 974 to 959, I.e stronger right?

[Aric Dunn]

So far in the 00z run in 24 hours GFS has Jose millibars going down 15! Doesn't seem right. Wonder if it needs to be discarded already due to that?

going down ? why wrong ?

Going down as in from 974 to 959, I.e stronger right?

yeah I edited it .. read it wrong :p

so yes trash it,... maybe 12z tomorrow the models might be realisitc..

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS has Maria missing Puerto Rico to the north...I don't see that happening.

[MWatkins]

FWIW: GFS shows Jose about a full 2 degrees east of the 18Z solution through half of day 5 (39/66)

MW

[Aric Dunn]

FWIW: GFS shows Jose about a full 2 degrees east of the 18Z solution through half of day 5 (39/66)

MW

Yeah, though I dont think anyone is buying the strength of Jose through the period.

[RL3AO]

The water is warm enough where Jose is. It's approaching the gulf stream in about 12 hours which is near 28C. I'm just wondering if the water is still 28C after a day of rain, choppy seas, and strong winds. The problem is once the clouds are there the satellites can't get new sea surface temperatures.

[Aric Dunn]

The water is warm enough where Jose is. It's approaching the gulf stream in about 12 hours which is near 28C. I'm just wondering if the water is still 28C after a day of rain, choppy seas, and strong winds. The problem is once the clouds are there the satellites can't get new sea surface temperatures.

half the circ will be over stable air and colder water. while the other half over stable air and warm water.. all the while not being fully tropical and under high shear..

hmmm let me think..

[MWatkins]

FWIW: GFS shows Jose about a full 2 degrees east of the 18Z solution through half of day 5 (39/66)

MW

Yeah, though I dont think anyone is buying the strength of Jose through the period.

Can't say I'm thrilled with the 0Z run through 5 days. Maria's more or less in the exact spot from 18Z at the same V-time, but Jose connecting still to the westerlies instead of fully cut off. And, still, 0Z is stronger w/ Jose even with the eastward progression. Hopefully a new round of P3/G-IV data tomorrow will help.

MW

[floridasun78]

you think jose weaking faster and forecast or slower and forecast ?

[RL3AO]

The water is warm enough where Jose is. It's approaching the gulf stream in about 12 hours which is near 28C. I'm just wondering if the water is still 28C after a day of rain, choppy seas, and strong winds. The problem is once the clouds are there the satellites can't get new sea surface temperatures.

half the circ will be over stable air and colder water. while the other half over stable air and warm water.. all the while not being fully tropical and under high shear..

hmmm let me think..

The GFS has shear dropping quite a bit by tomorrow. Obviously, I don't think 10 to 15 knots of shear + dry air + mediocre SSTs make a 20 mb pressure drop, but for some reason the GFS (and the Euro a little bit) think it does.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW: GFS shows Jose about a full 2 degrees east of the 18Z solution through half of day 5 (39/66)

MW

Wow. This is going to have huge ramifications for Maria, if it verifies.

[MWatkins]

you think jose weaking faster and forecast or slower and forecast ?

In real time, faster. In the GFS - not so much.

If it does deepen via non-tropical forcing then the odds of it getting picked up in the westerlies increases, I would think. Otherwise, how would it baroclinically deepen?

So in that way, the 0Z GFS seems to be a little more realistic w/ Jose. Concern now is with the 588/591 DM ridge looking stronger at D5+ dropping down out of the eastern US.

If Jose gets far enough away, it could leave Maria behind floating around in/east of the Bahamas.

MW

[Aric Dunn]

FWIW: GFS shows Jose about a full 2 degrees east of the 18Z solution through half of day 5 (39/66)

MW

Yeah, though I dont think anyone is buying the strength of Jose through the period.

Can't say I'm thrilled with the 0Z run through 5 days. Maria's more or less in the exact spot from 18Z at the same V-time, but Jose connecting still to the westerlies instead of fully cut off. And, still, 0Z is stronger w/ Jose even with the eastward progression. Hopefully a new round of P3/G-IV data tomorrow will help.



MW

Agreed. we need more data for sure... though the models might be having a difficult time with the SST's. the majority of the circ will be over the stable air and cooler water for long period of time. That in itself is not conducive, then you add on the upwelling which is where I think the models are having the biggest issue.

is there even an input for upwelling in the models ?

[RL3AO]

is there even an input for upwelling in the models ?

No. I don't think any global model is coupled with the ocean. I know for sure the GFS isn't. Models like HWRF do have oceanic coupling and the HMON does but it got turned off in the Atlantic because it caused issues.

[Aric Dunn]

The water is warm enough where Jose is. It's approaching the gulf stream in about 12 hours which is near 28C. I'm just wondering if the water is still 28C after a day of rain, choppy seas, and strong winds. The problem is once the clouds are there the satellites can't get new sea surface temperatures.

half the circ will be over stable air and colder water. while the other half over stable air and warm water.. all the while not being fully tropical and under high shear..

hmmm let me think..

The GFS has shear dropping quite a bit by tomorrow. Obviously, I don't think 10 to 15 knots of shear + dry air + mediocre SSTs make a 20 mb pressure drop, but for some reason the GFS (and the Euro a little bit) think it does.

Agreed. though I'm not convinced with the shear dropping. could be more of baroclinic transition. becasue clearly an upper high is not going to build over it. the shear dropping is suspect and likely not a tropical set up.

[RL3AO]

half the circ will be over stable air and colder water. while the other half over stable air and warm water.. all the while not being fully tropical and under high shear..

hmmm let me think..

The GFS has shear dropping quite a bit by tomorrow. Obviously, I don't think 10 to 15 knots of shear + dry air + mediocre SSTs make a 20 mb pressure drop, but for some reason the GFS (and the Euro a little bit) think it does.

Agreed. though I'm not convinced with the shear dropping. could be more of baroclinic transition. becasue clearly an upper high is not going to build over it. the shear dropping is suspect and likely not a tropical set up.

When you look at the 200 mb wind forecast, you can see the jet streak leaving Jose behind. That may lessen shear, but it will also remove a lot of the upper-level divergence Jose has had.