ATL: MARIA - Models

[gatorcane]

Almost a 1.5 degree shift South at 93 hours on the HWRF from 06z to 12z.

Yep big shift:

[Voltron]

Now that all of that was said, when do the new Euro's come out. Interested to see how far shift We we may get this period and tonight will be interesting.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z HWRF is over a full degree farther south through 96 hours than the 06Z run.

Edit: I see others have noticed this too

It's just one run, but perhaps the models are starting to latch onto the idea that Jose won't be as strong as they originally thought.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON has a big shift SW at the end of its run as well. No one on the East Coast is out of the woods yet with this deal. We just went through this with Irma with west shift after west shift.

[tolakram]

Now that all of that was said, when do the new Euro's come out. Interested to see how far shift We we may get this period and tonight will be interesting.

1:45 it starts, usually about 1:55 before we get the 24H frame.

You can also follow it on weather.us Just refresh until you see the run description, at the bottom of the image, change to 12z.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/62 ... 1800z.html

[Aric Dunn]

Figured the models would start to shift west not that JOSE is weaking much much faster.

Agreed. Any sense on what Maria's intensity could be on a possible track to NC?

way to early to say.. will depend on track..

[tolakram]

12z init already.

[AutoPenalti]

12z init already.

Right on schedule

Should give us a general consensus about Jose might do also.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Oh Boy! Seen this happen way...way..to many times. We will be talking about florida in 48 hours. Models did not do to hot with Irma (UKMET was the exception)

[RL3AO]

Models did not do to hot with Irma (UKMET was the exception)

This is NOT TRUE. The models did incredibly well with Irma.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF riding just east of the bahamas and not turning due north.. that a big shift.. +

[pokkeherrie]

Ridge building back in. Not good for the CONUS.

[tolakram]

Oh Boy! Seen this happen way...way..to many times. We will be talking about florida in 48 hours. Models did not do to hot with Irma (UKMET was the exception)

IRMA models thread, first post has a bunch of runs archived. Not too bad from this distance, but past performance is not a guide to future results.

viewtopic.php?f=85&t=119059

[tolakram]

[BYG Jacob]

There's no way Jose is close to that strong in 24 hours, he might actually be gone by that point.

[SFLcane]

Ok now this place is popping...I'll be watching those models next few days .

[Aric Dunn]

There's no way Jose is close to that strong in 24 hours, he might actually be gone by that point.

yeah noticed that too already.... may have to wait another 12 to 24 hours until the models catch on..

[RL3AO]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/YjlhNXI.png]

There's no way Jose is close to that strong in 24 hours, he might actually be gone by that point.

It won't be gone. It'll take some time for that windfield to spin down. However, I don't see Jose deepening 10 mb in 24 hours. We'll see how that impacts the track of Maria here.

[AutoPenalti]

Something to note compared to yesterday's Euro run is that a 591 isobar formed in the ridge on this run, I guess implying that the ridge is stronger?

[tolakram]