ATL: MARIA - Models

[OntarioEggplant]

A small group of GEFS members now getting uncomfortably close to South Florida

Where are y'all pulling the GEFS data from??? I haven't seen it updated on TT as of yet.

I have wxbell premium

[hurricaneCW]

I'll worry about possible US impacts after Puerto Rico, there's going go be a ton of uncertainty before that.

Probably a 50/50 shot right now at a LF near the Carolinas. The ridging is too far north and east for this to impact anyone further south and the additional weakness from a dying Jose nearly guarantees this to not impact Florida.

[RL3AO]

nearly guarantees this to not impact Florida.

Why do some feel the need to make declarations like this so soon? This probably doesn't impact Florida (beyond rip currents), but I certainly wouldn't nearly guarantee that it does.

[Ken711]

I'll worry about possible US impacts after Puerto Rico, there's going go be a ton of uncertainty before that.

Probably a 50/50 shot right now at a LF near the Carolinas. The ridging is too far north and east for this to impact anyone further south and the additional weakness from a dying Jose nearly guarantees this to not impact Florida.

Another question is how powerful Maria will be, Cat3 - Cat4 when it makes landfall?

[gatorcane]

Wow the GEFS is really changing its tune - look at the cluster near SE Florida:

[Voltron]

Ok we have finally come to a concensus that jose is not gonna help, think we have been saying this for some time but hoping. Having said that the GFS is always bias rogjt and does not build ridge enough even the 500 mb. The CMC has this blowing into SC/NC from the 00rez, bit has maintained that all thru which is wierd given it is the CMC. Guys, this is looking to be a mid state solution but still time to go back and forth. I still discount the GFS, cant go to NC inland and all of a sudden do an about face

[sma10]

nearly guarantees this to not impact Florida.

Why do some feel the need to make declarations like this so soon? This probably doesn't impact Florida (beyond rip currents), but I certainly wouldn't nearly guarantee that it does.

Especially when 20% of the most recent GEFS run impacts Florida directly

[Hurricaneman]

I'll worry about possible US impacts after Puerto Rico, there's going go be a ton of uncertainty before that.

Probably a 50/50 shot right now at a LF near the Carolinas. The ridging is too far north and east for this to impact anyone further south and the additional weakness from a dying Jose nearly guarantees this to not impact Florida.

Wouldn't be so sure about that, if Jose decays faster than modeled then most certainly Florida isn't out of the woods and until no ensembles or fewer ensembles show Florida I'm definitely not giving an all clear until it's north of 28n

[OntarioEggplant]

I can't tell for sure, but I think the same GEFS member that has Maria traveling westward across the gulf is the same one that has Jose booking it out towards Iceland.

Interesting scenario considering how off the models are with Jose so far.

[Evil Jeremy]

People writing off Florida must have amnesia, we literally just did this dance two weeks ago.

Not liking the trends. Someone in the SE going to receive direct impacts. PR unfortunately about to the the wallop they were expecting what feels like yesterday.

Hopefully the models get clarity on Jose very soon.

[AutoPenalti]

I'll worry about possible US impacts after Puerto Rico, there's going go be a ton of uncertainty before that.

Probably a 50/50 shot right now at a LF near the Carolinas. The ridging is too far north and east for this to impact anyone further south and the additional weakness from a dying Jose nearly guarantees this to not impact Florida.

Reword all of that please.

[Ken711]

Expecting a big shift west by the Euro these next couple of runs.

[jdjaguar]

I'll worry about possible US impacts after Puerto Rico, there's going go be a ton of uncertainty before that.

Probably a 50/50 shot right now at a LF near the Carolinas. The ridging is too far north and east for this to impact anyone further south and the additional weakness from a dying Jose nearly guarantees this to not impact Florida.

Wouldn't be so sure about that, if Jose decays faster than modeled then most certainly Florida isn't out of the woods and until no ensembles or fewer ensembles show Florida I'm definitely not giving an all clear until it's north of 28n

I'm not giving an all clear until its north and well east of 30.28n 81.39W

[hurricaneCW]

nearly guarantees this to not impact Florida.

Why do some feel the need to make declarations like this so soon? This probably doesn't impact Florida (beyond rip currents), but I certainly wouldn't nearly guarantee that it does.

Especially when 20% of the most recent GEFS run impacts Florida directly

And some of those had Irma hitting the Florida panhandle. The ridge is displaced much further N/E than it was when Irma got sent to Florida and it's not as strong/expansive. There will also be a weakness left by Jose that should be more than enough to take it east of Florida.

The ridge would have to become stronger and extend much further south to send Maria to Florida, I'll give at 10 percent chance of that happening.

[RL3AO]

The ridge would have to become stronger and extend much further south to send Maria to Florida, I'll give at 10 percent chance of that happening.

I don't consider a 10% chance of something to be "nearly guaranteeing that it doesn't", but thanks for clarifying.

[Aric Dunn]

Figured the models would start to shift west not that JOSE is weaking much much faster.

[tolakram]

Why do some feel the need to make declarations like this so soon? This probably doesn't impact Florida (beyond rip currents), but I certainly wouldn't nearly guarantee that it does.

Especially when 20% of the most recent GEFS run impacts Florida directly

And some of those had Irma hitting the Florida panhandle. The ridge is displaced much further N/E than it was when Irma got sent to Florida and it's not as strong/expansive. There will also be a weakness left by Jose that should be more than enough to take it east of Florida.

The ridge would have to become stronger and extend much further south to send Maria to Florida, I'll give at 10 percent chance of that happening.

Just cut it out. You aren't the expert model reader here and claiming areas are out of the woods is silly, ok? Just plain silly. This is not a prediction thread, it's not what this thread is about so let's move on.

[Ken711]

Figured the models would start to shift west not that JOSE is weaking much much faster.

Agreed. Any sense on what Maria's intensity could be on a possible track to NC?

[SouthFLTropics]

Almost a 1.5 degree shift South at 93 hours on the HWRF from 06z to 12z.

[ChucktownStormer]

Hoo boy! Here we go again. Watch FL be back in the conversation in a couple of days. I've heard some local personalities already dismiss this storm as a fish already.

Still too soon. Jose is a BIG unknown variable that's salting some of the models.