ATL: MARIA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

GFS so far, still insisting Maria hits PR on the east side.

and still insisting that Jose will intensify, sigh..

[RL3AO]

GFS so far, still insisting Maria hits PR on the east side.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QVlb39j.gif[g]

Has a really odd jump to the NW between hours 6 and 12. It's had something similar in the NE Caribbean. Not sure if I believe it.

[tolakram]

I don't mind comparing model performance to past storms but please do not embed the images, just post links and clearly state these are from another storm. The entire page was full of Irma and quoted Irma pictures which could be very confusing to folks looking for quick answers. Thanks.

[northjaxpro]

Tabs not turning west lthey are looping indicating weak steering currents possibly in the area. Again till this point models in good agreement on a substantial weakness left by Jose allowing Maria to turn away. Let's hope this keeps up

Yes so far the modeling looks good for FL..key words so far. Not trying to be a doom and gloomer as I think this scenario is still unlikely but IF steering collapses and Maria is in the vicinity of the Bahamas, then that could allow HP to build in north of the system. Then all bets are off the table with a CONUS impact from Maria.

I 100% completely agree with you on this. I just posted a moment ago that people would be wise to not get comfortable with model solutions beyond 120 hours. Period!! There are too many uncertainties right now and what you point out ronjon is my biggest concern down the road.

[chris_fit]

GFS so far, still insisting Maria hits PR on the east side.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QVlb39j.gif[g]

Has a really odd jump to the NW between hours 6 and 12. It's had something similar in the NE Caribbean. Not sure if I believe it.

That's a great graphic - Did you make or can we access somewhere? And for other models?[/quote]

[RL3AO]

The GFS forecast for Jose is absurd. It has a hurricane that intensifies 30 mb in the next 36 hours with a symmetric precip field and eyewall. This will not happen. That changes so much with potential impacts on Maria that I don't see how you can use this run of the GFS beyond days 3 or 4.

[RL3AO]

Has a really odd jump to the NW between hours 6 and 12. It's had something similar in the NE Caribbean. Not sure if I believe it.

That's a great graphic - Did you make or can we access somewhere? And for other models?

[/quote]

Brian Tang's page.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

Maria is a bit further west and Jose a bit further NE at hour 96 of the 12Z GFS vs the 102 of the 6Z GFS. So, I'm guessing Maria will at least be closer to the east coast of the US than it was on the 6Z run.

[tolakram]

East Coast view

[tolakram]

My thought is Jose gets the top blown off and the low level swirl spins down. The GFS seems to have issues with this and keeps something at the 500mb level which seems a bit off, but reading models is not my best skill.

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

East Coast view

mg]

Even at this point it's already made Jose into a category 3 hurricane with an eyewall in two days and has it still spinning down. That's probably keeping the ridge over SE Canada too far west. I just don't trust anything from this run beyond day 3 or 4.

[LarryWx]

A somewhat ominous change on the 12Z GFS vs earlier runs for the US east coast. Not good if you don't want a hit there. But it is very early.

[NFLnut]

Please don't post Irma graphics - some might miss the Irma label (especially if they're looking at this from a phone or in the car) and think it's for Maria.

Admin, please consider this...

Thanks

I would suggest also refrain from posting Jose graphics and in discussions (I know that Jose has some bearing in Maria's track) to be VERY clear that you are talking about JOSE and not Maria! Yesterday, I was going nuts with all of the people saying "the satellite shows it's going NNE" and they were talking about JOSE in this MARIA models thread but not making it clear they were talking about JOSE!

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Trend GIF

[chris_fit]

GFS - Last 5 runs Tendency. The last/longest frame is the current 12Z

[gatorcane]

Looks like a decent shift west on the 12Z GFS as it near or just east of the Bahamas.

[Voltron]

The GFS forecast for Jose is absurd. It has a hurricane that intensifies 30 mb in the next 36 hours with a symmetric precip field and eyewall. This will not happen. That changes so much with potential impacts on Maria that I don't see how you can use this run of the GFS beyond days 3 or 4.

Thank you for saying this!, cold not agree more with you. We have others indicating that because of this, the all clear may happen. I caution you that we need to look at these errors along with the NHC who will have a very difficult decision as this affects millions on the EC. Models are just in illogical conclusions right now.