ATL: MARIA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/909762546382639105

[gtalum]

Perhaps this all has a very benign, undramatic ending, but too many unknown variables at this point

The islands won't have a benign ending, that's for sure.

Hopefully CONUS will be spared, but I'm thinking that at least everyone from NC north has to watch carefully. I'm in Florida and still holding my breath re Maria, but hopeful...

[northjaxpro]

I would not be comfortable in any model solutions right now beyond 5 days. Way too much uncertainty pertaining to the 2 storms (Jose and Maria).

There are simply too many variables still on the table down the road!!

[Voltron]

This scenario does not make sense based on the strength of the ridge and the dissipation of Jose. The models do not have a good understanding. Models are only as good as the input so garbage in garbage out. I would wager on Jose leaving and dying. I would further with support of the strong ridge suggest that GA up through Maine needs to start to have a plan and maintain that plan, Jose may not be that savior, remember past models and the issues they have all had.

[artist]

12Z Guidance. There would have to be quite a big shift or series of consecutive west shifts over the next several days to put Florida at risk here. I am feeling good about Florida still. Bahamas still at risk though.

did you not notice its only the TAB's that are 12z? Also, more importantly, notice their track ! steering currents clearly die no longer north they start looping around.

toggle the last 2 images..

pretty clear with the shifts..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=15

Hey Aric, do you know if there is an animation from Irmato compare? I just remember a lot of windshield wiper action going on.

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn't say "slim" but it could be worse I guess. I still think it's a bit premature to say "preventing a major hit" though. Did we at least learn something with Irma?

I guess I should've said lesson the chances as there looks like there will be enough of a weakness leftover despite how long or intense Jose is.

There is nothing wrong with acknowledging a favorable trend for the CONUS. It's there, it's substantial and growing. Of course it comes with the usual caveats but this is good news for us. I'll drink to that. In the nearer term things are looking bad for our friends in the NE Caribbean. Here's to hoping Maria's small core dances around as many landmasses as possible.

We still have about 2½ months left of this already dangerous and destructive hurricane season and we've already seen many tropical cyclone landfalls and 2 U.S. major hurricane hits. Besides even though Irma was about 100 miles to the west along the west coast of Florida up here in NE Palm Beach County along the immediate east coast of Florida we saw more than enough from Irma with widespread hurricane conditions (at least in gusts) and widespread power outages. In total I went through a good day or two without power at least and numerous legit power surges and things are just now getting back to normal as of today with schools reopening. Sorry to get off topic.

Anyways the trend is your friend in this case!

[utweather]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/909762546382639105

Makes sense. Jose has been something else with the loops. I wonder if Maria will loop as well?

[Aric Dunn]

12Z Guidance. There would have to be quite a big shift or series of consecutive west shifts over the next several days to put Florida at risk here. I am feeling good about Florida still. Bahamas still at risk though.

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/u964eb2ft/storm_15.gif[/ig]

did you not notice its only the TAB's that are 12z? Also, more importantly, notice their track ! steering currents clearly die no longer north they start looping around.

toggle the last 2 images..

pretty clear with the shifts..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=15

Hey Aric, do you know if there is an animation from Irmato compare? I just remember a lot of windshield wiper action going on.

im sure if you searched through flhurricane or you googled flurricane irma it would probably come up

[gatorcane]

12Z Guidance. There would have to be quite a big shift or series of consecutive west shifts over the next several days to put Florida at risk here. I am feeling good about Florida still. Bahamas still at risk though.

https://s26.postimg.org/u964eb2ft/storm_15.gif

did you not notice its only the TAB's that are 12z? Also, more importantly, notice their track ! steering currents clearly die no longer north they start looping around.

toggle the last 2 images..

pretty clear with the shifts..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=15

Yes the TABs are turning west now east of Bahamas. We'll see if this is a start to a new trend or not. This graphic shows this better:

[CourierPR]

I just saw a "the trend is your friend' post. The trend is your friend now but it may change later. Model trends, like human friends can and do sometimes betray us.

[Ken711]

Looking at the latest track guidance it is looking more and more likely that Maria may very well take a similar track to Jose cutting between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda on its way out to sea. Thank you Jose for leaving behind such a big weakness to prevent yet another U.S. major hit. Not saying a U.S. landfall can't happen but it's looking slim at the moment.

I'd say far from slim this far out. I think you'll see the models trend west starting tonight, and over the next few days once they start accounting for less of any Jose affect.

[SFLcane]

Tabs not turning west they are looping indicating weak steering currents possibly in the area. Again till this point models in good agreement on a substantial weakness left by Jose allowing Maria to turn away. Let's hope this keeps up

[artist]

I guess I should've said lesson the chances as there looks like there will be enough of a weakness leftover despite how long or intense Jose is.

There is nothing wrong with acknowledging a favorable trend for the CONUS. It's there, it's substantial and growing. Of course it comes with the usual caveats but this is good news for us. I'll drink to that. In the nearer term things are looking bad for our friends in the NE Caribbean. Here's to hoping Maria's small core dances around as many landmasses as possible.

We still have about 2½ months left of this already dangerous and destructive hurricane season and we've already seen many tropical cyclone landfalls and 2 U.S. major hurricane hits. Besides even though Irma was about 100 miles to the west along the west coast of Florida up here in NE Palm Beach County along the immediate east coast of Florida we saw more than enough from Irma with widespread hurricane conditions (at least in gusts) and widespread power outages. In total I went through a good day or two without power at least and numerous legit power surges and things are just now getting back to normal as of today with schools reopening. Sorry to get off topic.

Anyways the trend is your friend in this case!

Palm Beach county as well. The Acreage, specifically. 5 days no power.
We have to be realistic and realize at this point there are too many variables. Even more than with Irma, I believe.
We have to just be prepared, in the off chance she heads this way. Are you ready for at least 5 days without power?
We can hope for the best, but must prepare for the worse. Below find Irma's predicted track at one point

[ img]http://i68.tinypic.com/alp8ht.png[/img]

[RL3AO]

t

[i mg]http://i68.tinypic.com/35bs3r4.png[/img]

"Why spaghetti plots can be terribly misleading in one image"

The most important line in the figure, the NHC forecast is the "outlier". Naturally, it turned out to be the most accurate. When TV stations showed plots like this on TV, it gave viewers the impression that Irma was most likely to stay east of Florida. People even began returning supplies.

[artist]

t

[i mg]http://i68.tinypic.com/35bs3r4.png[/img]

"Why spaghetti plots can be terribly misleading in one image"

The most important line in the figure, the NHC forecast is the "outlier". Naturally, it turned out to be the most accurate. When TV stations showed plots like this on TV, it gave viewers the impression that Irma was most likely to stay east of Florida. People even began returning supplies.

Yep, and I changed the image after you were posting, which actually showed the official going into the gulf at one point and a wider spread in the spaghettis further east of Florida- not into Marco Island/Everglades City as it ended up doing. Here it is
[i mg]http://i68.tinypic.com/alp8ht.png[/img]

[ronjon]

Tabs not turning west they are looping indicating weak steering currents possibly in the area. Again till this point models in good agreement on a substantial weakness left by Jose allowing Maria to turn away. Let's hope this keeps up

Yes so far the modeling looks good for FL..key words so far. Not trying to be a doom and gloomer as I think this scenario is still unlikely but IF steering collapses and Maria is in the vicinity of the Bahamas, then that could allow HP to build in north of the system. Then all bets are off the table with a CONUS impact from Maria.

[Frank2]

Please don't post Irma graphics - some might miss the Irma label (especially if they're looking at this from a phone or in the car) and think it's for Maria.

Admin, please consider this...

Thanks

[SouthDadeFish]

Tabs not turning west they are looping indicating weak steering currents possibly in the area. Again till this point models in good agreement on a substantial weakness left by Jose allowing Maria to turn away. Let's hope this keeps up

The Tabs feature those cyclonic loops because the circulation associated with Maria is not being properly removed. Thus the model falsely assumes there is some sort of cyclonic background flow. I think this issue will be corrected in future hurricane seasons.

[tolakram]

GFS so far, still insisting Maria hits PR on the east side.

[tolakram]