ATL: MARIA - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFS kills off Jose and all but stalls Maria tgru 204h

[Alyono]

jose is still just sitting there over 60 to 65 degree water for days.. sorry not happening..

it would be so shallow with convection none likely that there wouldbe little to no influence on the mid to upper level ridging building back in.

Logically, your post makes sense. But ALL models flubbing this? Seems very unlikely

they did with Hermine last year up by New England

[Alyono]

GFS vaporizes the building ridge this run

[sma10]

jose is still just sitting there over 60 to 65 degree water for days.. sorry not happening..

it would be so shallow with convection none likely that there wouldbe little to no influence on the mid to upper level ridging building back in.

Logically, your post makes sense. But ALL models flubbing this? Seems very unlikely

they did with Hermine last year up by New England

Granted - there is certainly a chance that all models are incorrect on Jose as they were with Hermine. Unfortunately, this time the ramifications would be enormous.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS vaporizes the building ridge this run

Yeah, no...

[jlauderdal]

GFS vaporizes the building ridge this run

gfs either plows into ridges like yesterday or if that is unsuccessful then it just waves a wand and makes them disapear

[Dean4Storms]

I'm just not buying into Jose hanging around that long and be able to hold back the ridge in 60'sF water. lol

[LarryWx]

GFS vaporizes the building ridge this run

Yeah, no...

Yeah, maybe. Why dismiss it as at least a possibility? None of us know what will happen. Are the models that bad? Remember when some were dismissing Jose even lingering as unrealistic and saying it wasn't going to happen? Now it has shifted to accepting Jose lingering but him being modeled too strongly to help keep Maria offshore the SE US.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS vaporizes the building ridge this run

Yeah, no...

Yeah, maybe. Why dismiss it as at least a possibility? None of us know what will happen. Are the models that bad? Remember when some were dismissing Jose even lingering as unrealistic and saying it wasn't going to happen? Now it has shifted to accepting Jose lingering but him being modeled to strongly too help keep Maris from staying offshore the SE US.

Models continue to have no idea what to do with Jose...dont think they will be useful beyond 96 hrs till they do.

[Alyono]

we need to stop using modelology and get back to meteorology

Is the Jose solution physically possible? That is the question we need to ask ourselves If the answer is yes, Maria likely misses. If no, then Maria likely hits the East Coast

[wxmann_91]

Logically, your post makes sense. But ALL models flubbing this? Seems very unlikely

the strength of jose over that water temp? yes.. all we need to do is look at the eastern pacific when a full on hurricane moves nw hits the cold current and dies down to nothing but a low level swirl with zero convection within 24 two 36 hrs.. the models have jose over cold temps for longer..

But all it takes sometimes is a little weakness in a 500 mb ridge to allow for a TC to move north into it.

I don't get why people aren't realizing this more. This is not the subtropical EPAC, Jose will get injected with baroclinic energy that will allow it to maintain a mid-level reflection longer. That's all we need to steer Maria out.

[Aric Dunn]

the strength of jose over that water temp? yes.. all we need to do is look at the eastern pacific when a full on hurricane moves nw hits the cold current and dies down to nothing but a low level swirl with zero convection within 24 two 36 hrs.. the models have jose over cold temps for longer..

But all it takes sometimes is a little weakness in a 500 mb ridge to allow for a TC to move north into it.

I don't get why people aren't realizing this more. This is not the subtropical EPAC, Jose will get injected with baroclinic energy that will allow it to maintain a mid-level reflection longer. That's all we need to steer Maria out.

That would only really work if it was moving and transitioning .. it will no be moving very fast over very cold water you can look at the upper synoptics over JOse at the time. not much forcing going on..

for instacne ( though not exactly the right map) you can see all the energy is long gone and well to the north.. nothing to keep it as strong as the models are showing ... unless the models have the water temps all wrong..

[SFLcane]

I don't get what's in doupt? Jose hangs on long enough to produce enough of a weakness for Maria to head north. Most models as of today in rather good agreement of this outcome. Hoping it continues

[Dean4Storms]

we need to stop using modelology and get back to meteorology

Is the Jose solution physically possible? That is the question we need to ask ourselves If the answer is yes, Maria likely misses. If no, then Maria likely hits the East Coast

And that is what I'm pondering. How does a TC arriving off the NE Coast this Tuesday in sub 77F SST's with hardly any heat content at depth survive with enough convection to pump into the mid levels a weakness until Sunday going by the latest GFS? I don't think we see much more than a naked swirl decaying by Friday.

[wxmann_91]

But all it takes sometimes is a little weakness in a 500 mb ridge to allow for a TC to move north into it.

I don't get why people aren't realizing this more. This is not the subtropical EPAC, Jose will get injected with baroclinic energy that will allow it to maintain a mid-level reflection longer. That's all we need to steer Maria out.

That would only really work if it was moving and transitioning .. it will no be moving very fast over very cold water you can look at the upper synoptics over JOse at the time. not much forcing going on..

for instacne ( though not exactly the right map) you can see all the energy is long gone and well to the north.. nothing to keep it as strong as the models are showing ... unless the models have the water temps all wrong..

[im g]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091718/gfs_shear_atl_18.png[/img]

Jose is under the right-entrance region of a 200mb jet, which will help with outflow and ascent near the storm center. This looks more like a recipe for extratropical transition than slow degradation into a remnant low.



I think the GFS is overdone as usual, but it's difficult to discount many runs of the Euro and GFS that indicate Jose will steer Maria. It's still a tossup to what extent, but the idea at least, has merit.

[Ken711]

I don't get what's in doupt? Jose hangs on long enough to produce enough of a weakness for Maria to head north. Most models as of today in rather good agreement of this outcome. Hoping it continues

Isn't it supposed to be a strong ridge though? How can the remnants of Jose have that much of an affect on it to open an escape route for Maria.

[Alyono]

I don't get what's in doupt? Jose hangs on long enough to produce enough of a weakness for Maria to head north. Most models as of today in rather good agreement of this outcome. Hoping it continues

10 day ensemble probabilities favor a landfall more than out to sea. But out to sea is most certainly a viable track

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF fairly steady each run through 3 days.. still has a Cat 5 ( with a blend of 850mb and 10m. since it more accurately represents intense hurricanes ability to mix down those higher winds) clipping the NE tip of PR putting San Juan in the SW inner EYEwall.

[sma10]

I don't get what's in doupt? Jose hangs on long enough to produce enough of a weakness for Maria to head north. Most models as of today in rather good agreement of this outcome. Hoping it continues

I'm guessing the issue at play is that there is disbelief that Jose could maintain a strong enough presence at 40n to totally eradicate ridging.

[Alyono]

I don't get why people aren't realizing this more. This is not the subtropical EPAC, Jose will get injected with baroclinic energy that will allow it to maintain a mid-level reflection longer. That's all we need to steer Maria out.

That would only really work if it was moving and transitioning .. it will no be moving very fast over very cold water you can look at the upper synoptics over JOse at the time. not much forcing going on..

for instacne ( though not exactly the right map) you can see all the energy is long gone and well to the north.. nothing to keep it as strong as the models are showing ... unless the models have the water temps all wrong..

[im g]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091718/gfs_shear_atl_18.png[/img]

Jose is under the right-entrance region of a 200mb jet, which will help with outflow and ascent near the storm center. This looks more like a recipe for extratropical transition than slow degradation into a remnant low.



I think the GFS is overdone as usual, but it's difficult to discount many runs of the Euro and GFS that indicate Jose will steer Maria. It's still a tossup to what extent, but the idea at least, has merit.

the models aren't really showing ET though (at least the GFS). I could buy it if it weren't showing a well formed eye and eyewall structure. It's possible the models are getting this right for the wrong reason though