ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

we have been watching this intently in Barbados, is it just me or has she take a west track over the last hr+??

not according to recon..

[1900hurricane]

It's interesting to see Maria appear to be dropping in pressure so quickly, as least based on these two passes. Overall structure as revealed by microwave imagery is actually pretty good, but convective presentation leaves much to be desired.

[GCANE]

They hit a high rain-rate cell at 18:52Z
35 mm/hr
14.050N 55.967W
That actually may pull some energy away from the core.

[Aric Dunn]

What is this 2 pass crap from recon.. its clearly deepening right now.. pressure has been falling winds will eventually respond..

[TJRE]

boy oh boy!!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

4hrs total

[Aric Dunn]

That was weird.. recon climbed quite a bit flew far away then dropped back to operational and turned back to storm.. maybe they read my post lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/re ... -MARIA.dat

[SouthDadeFish]

What is this 2 pass crap from recon.. its clearly deepening right now.. pressure has been falling winds will eventually respond..

What do you mean? Recon is going in for another center fix.

[wxman57]

It does look more impressive on satellite now. Much better than 2 hours ago. Appears to be strengthening. May not be far from hurricane intensity now.

[chaser1]

It's interesting to see Maria appear to be dropping in pressure so quickly, as least based on these two passes. Overall structure as revealed by microwave imagery is actually pretty good, but convective presentation leaves much to be desired.

Great point. I'm just wondering if NHC is sitting back to see whether the recent convective bursting will collapse or finally maintain a building CDO? As I said earlier though, whether pulling the trigger now, at 11:00pm, or morning.... does anyone see how this system with 984mb and an impressive Microwave signature does not further organize and intensify in the short term?? All in all, I'd guess that NHC just tags it a hurricane at 5:00pm with the pretty safe assumption that surface winds catch up to the falling pressures

[Aric Dunn]

What is this 2 pass crap from recon.. its clearly deepening right now.. pressure has been falling winds will eventually respond..

What do you mean? Recon is going in for another center fix.

read my previous post right above... they climbed for a good bit thought they were heading out..

[chaser1]

That was weird.. recon climbed quite a bit flew far away then dropped back to operational and turned back to storm.. maybe they read my post lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/re ... -MARIA.dat

Aric, maybe they took an unexpected beating or downdraft and decided to temporarily buy themselves a little real estate before continuing with their mission??

[Aric Dunn]

That was weird.. recon climbed quite a bit flew far away then dropped back to operational and turned back to storm.. maybe they read my post lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/re ... -MARIA.dat

Aric, maybe they took an unexpected beating or downdraft and decided to temporarily buy themselves a little real estate before continuing with their mission??

actually I think I saw the temp and dew points dropping steadily as usually happens when they are climbing at leaving but after looking at their altitude it appears they never climbed.. my bad..

[Dave C]

You definitely need time to regroup after being slapped around, I know from personal experience!

[Dave C]

It does look more impressive on satellite now. Much better than 2 hours ago. Appears to be strengthening. May not be far from hurricane intensity now.

Sure seems to be reclaiming some ground on its western flank.

[Aric Dunn]

Wonder if the NHC will wait till this last pass before the advisory..

[SouthDadeFish]

Wonder if the NHC will wait till this last pass before the advisory..

I was thinking this as well. I think they will at least be able to get a surface pressure extrapolation.

[colbroe]

Looks like Maria has expanded tremendously over the last three hours ,seems to me that hurricane warnings will be going up for other islands at five o'clock

[GCANE]

That high rain-rate cell far removed from the CoC seems to have dissipated quickly.
Seeing a lot of VHTs on the wall.
I think she may rip.

[galaxy401]

Wonder if the NHC will wait till this last pass before the advisory..

Not sure if there is enough time for that.

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall coming into view ..

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre