ATL: MARIA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

Not looking good for NE Caribbean again and Mid Atlantic, model trends looking better for FL/GOM...

dont get too caught up in the models after the 3 to 4 day period.. the uncertainity is near 100 percent ...

It feels like we were just here...

It sure does .... I'm still recovering from Irma. I can't afford another one. Let's hope Maria is a fish.

[Aric Dunn]

00 Euro is a decent shift SW in the short term. lets see how it reacts in the long term.

[bamajammer4eva]

dont get too caught up in the models after the 3 to 4 day period.. the uncertainity is near 100 percent ...

It feels like we were just here...

It sure does .... I'm still recovering from Irma. I can't afford another one. Let's hope Maria is a fish.

Hopefully for the US overall we are done for the year! I think we have more than made up for the hurricane drought.

Euro is quite a bit South of the 12z run and actually approaches Hispaniola from the SE vs tracking 50 or so miles to the North

[RL3AO]

Looks like a weaker Jose is being moved into the eastern US this run. This at least looks a little more realistic.

[Aric Dunn]

Just a massive massive shift in setup and track of jose.. just like the GFS have to throw out the run after 3 to 4 to 4 days... have to wait and see what happens with jose before we will know what Maria is going to do.

[bamajammer4eva]

Just a massive massive shift in setup and track of jose.. just like the GFS have to throw out the run after 3 to 4 to 4 days... have to wait and see what happens with jose before we will know what Maria is going to do.

If both storms remain in the picture like models show are they ever going to be reliable for this storm or is it going to come down to nowcasting and how the forecaster analyzes things??

[Aric Dunn]

Just a massive massive shift in setup and track of jose.. just like the GFS have to throw out the run after 3 to 4 to 4 days... have to wait and see what happens with jose before we will know what Maria is going to do.

If both storms remain in the picture like models show are they ever going to be reliable for this storm or is it going to come down to nowcasting and how the forecaster analyzes things??

this run looks a little more manageable. but the 12z would be not so much fun..

[Aric Dunn]

the change this run is so crazy different.. lol

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like Euro listened to this board and is answering the question of what happens if there is a weaker Jose hanging around LOL

[Brent]

hard to see how this run doesn't at least get very close to the US

[WeatherHoon]

Looks like Euro listened to this board and is answering the question of what happens if there is a weaker Jose hanging around LOL

Euro always has an answer.

[Aric Dunn]

with JOSE dead and ridging building in.. SE landfall looks likely. unless that upper level feature is there in the gulf.

[LarryWx]

At hour 192, Jose is practically nonexistent though a slight upper weakness has been left behind. She's now moving NNW.

[Brent]

Headed for the Carolinas at 216

[LarryWx]

Near Wilmington, NC, landfall on 9/26.

This isn't just a weaker Jose lingering. This is a Jose that dies.

[RL3AO]

It probably goes without saying, but the track forecast of Maria is much more uncertain than usual. Jose will make a huge impact.

[Aric Dunn]

So we finally have a halfway reasonable run.. still a lot can change .. especially if JOSE actually just lifts out .. then ridging would be stronger and a continued WNW track likely..

[RL3AO]

Also, the Euro has shifted 1500 miles with Jose in only two runs. Keep that in mind the next time someone complains about the GFS and the "windshield wipers".

[AxaltaRacing24]

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS members similar to the 12Z EPS with many hits from S FL to NC late 9/24 through 9/29 and even 2 in the Gulf. The mean is much further SW than the 0Z GEFS mean at hour 192.

Edit: Note that the timing of any potential SE US hits is quite spread out, implying a much greater than usual level of uncertainty.