00z Intensity Guidance.
ATL: MARIA - Models
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
AJC3 wrote:Over the next few days, continue to keep a close eye on the on any trend/continuity the various globals and their ensembles have in the handling of Jose. Up until now, there appears to have been pretty significant run to run disparity on how fast the system lifts out, and how deep/strong the circulation is, with those two variables likely being somewhat related. A faster weakening/spin down and lift out will leave less of a weakness and lessen the chance of Maria making a quicker and more easterly poleward turn.
What do you think about the current steering and jose's odd ene to NE motion the last few hours.. ? that should allow the ridge to build back if it lifted out in that direction.
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AJC3
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:AJC3 wrote:Over the next few days, continue to keep a close eye on the on any trend/continuity the various globals and their ensembles have in the handling of Jose. Up until now, there appears to have been pretty significant run to run disparity on how fast the system lifts out, and how deep/strong the circulation is, with those two variables likely being somewhat related. A faster weakening/spin down and lift out will leave less of a weakness and lessen the chance of Maria making a quicker and more easterly poleward turn.
What do you think about the current steering and jose's odd ene to NE motion the last few hours.. ? that should allow the ridge to build back if it lifted out in that direction.
Certainly alarming for the Lesser Antilles, increasingly so for the Windwards. Jury's still out on any longer term implications through, being 8+ days away from any CPA to the CONUS.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
GeneratorPower wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.
By all means, the Carolinas can HAVE Maria. But we go down this road every single time. Let the never ending west shifts begin.
Yeah really...Where have I seen models like this before???
Oh that's right, about 10 to 14 days ago.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Looks Iike sharp recurve on tonight's models after unfortunately impacting the islands.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
otowntiger wrote:. Wow- that is very good looking for at least Florida and the southeast. The islands obviously are under the gun unfortunately.TheStormExpert wrote:18z GEFS Ensembles, targeting the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. for now.
Here is what the GFS ensembles showed for Irma around the same timeframe. Looks similar to the above doesn't it?
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invest man
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
My question is didn't NHC mention cooler waters ahead for Jose along with 30kts of shear? How then could Jose stay around in those conditions a week out to impact anything? Shouldn't it die a slow death? The models seem to be keeping the system around but really makes no sense either with the aforementioned conditions! Any thoughts on this!
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AubreyStorm
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
What time running HWRF?
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Not looking good for NE Caribbean again and Mid Atlantic, model trends looking better for FL/GOM...
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Blown Away wrote:Not looking good for NE Caribbean again and Mid Atlantic, model trends looking better for FL/GOM...
dont get too caught up in the models after the 3 to 4 day period.. the uncertainity is near 100 percent ...
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Blown Away wrote:Not looking good for NE Caribbean again and Mid Atlantic, model trends looking better for FL/GOM...
dont get too caught up in the models after the 3 to 4 day period.. the uncertainity is near 100 percent ...
It feels like we were just here...
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Blown Away wrote:Not looking good for NE Caribbean again and Mid Atlantic, model trends looking better for FL/GOM...
dont get too caught up in the models after the 3 to 4 day period.. the uncertainity is near 100 percent ...
It feels like we were just here...
A little bit.. but with IRMA at least there was a fairly straightforward concept.. this situation is very very very uncertain..
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Blown Away wrote:Not looking good for NE Caribbean again and Mid Atlantic, model trends looking better for FL/GOM...
That's what we said with Irma in this location.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
and the lovely GFS 00z is running.... everyone run and hide.. lol
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Is everyone out partying or just catching up on rest for the next coming days ? lol
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
and now the GFS is back to being faster.. sheesh
quite a bit faster
quite a bit faster
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
That Irma vibe again..... and model watching. Not saying this would be a repeat but it's looking similar (like westerly and intensity trends all over again) to Irma
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