ATL: MARIA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

nope due north.. well the entire upper levels are different than the last. jose does a loop comes back to meet maria almost.. which is the opposite of the Euro.. the trough over the moutains out west is slightly negative tilted two upper low over the east and pretty strong ridging in the mid levels to the north of it.. ..

this is really funky..

[AutoPenalti]

GFS says, "let's plow through the ridge! "

[Alyono]

BS. Jose CANNOT linger in place for days and intensify. This is why ocean coupling is required

[Aric Dunn]

im just going to completely disregard this run of GFS.. ..........

[RL3AO]

Jose lingering is helping to keep the sub-tropical ridge and the mid-latitude ridge over the US/Canada from connecting up. The big question will be if Jose will actually be there in 7 or 8 days.

[RL3AO]

GFS says, "let's plow through the ridge! "

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/hrnhh3.png[/g]

The mid-level background flow is from the south there. Why would you be surprised the model brings the storm north?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Gotta love how the GFS takes Jose into the 970's after sitting there for days.

[Alyono]

Jose is also far too strong in the GFS. It's not going to approach Cape Cod sub 950mb

[AutoPenalti]

GFS says, "let's plow through the ridge! "

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/hrnhh3.png[/g]

The mid-level background flow is from the south there. Why would you be surprised the model brings the storm north?

Disregarding the background mean flow, are we really expecting José to not only linger but intensify while being up there?

[jlauderdal]

im just going to completely disregard this run of GFS.. ..........

so the last two runs of the gfs are bunk and the euro was suspect at best...we are in great shape, will reboot and start over over tomorrow

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ATCF

What is atcf

Reading back from page 1 i just noticed your question.
18z


Automated tropical cyclone forecast system provides tracks for tropical low pressure systems as named by the National Hurricane Center from up to 50 computer forecast models at the same time.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/

So early in the forecasts i dont look past the NHC.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/NHChtml/ts.html

[Aric Dunn]

well technically the 18z HWRF has it at a hurricane in 3 to 6 hours..

[AutoPenalti]

well technically the 18z HWRF has it at a hurricane in 3 to 6 hours..

Wait, what?

[Alyono]

well technically the 18z HWRF has it at a hurricane in 3 to 6 hours..

Wait, what?

HWRF also sends it to St. Martin

Same model that said Barbuda would not see hurricane force winds from Irma. Massive right bias

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF like the GFS is well to the right this run..

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1709161200

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1709161200
Edit this needs deleting doubled for some reason.

[Aric Dunn]

and it has a 185 mph cat 5 sitting over the US/british VI.. 90 hrs

[Michele B]

and it has a 185 mph cat 5 sitting over the US/british VI.. 90 hrs

Do the models have "hurricane fatigue" too?

[SouthDadeFish]

and it has a 185 mph cat 5 sitting over the US/british VI.. 90 hrs

????? The 18Z HWRF? I'm not seeing this.