ATL: MARIA - Models

[Nimbus]

Models seem to be working well after a rough start earlier in the season. Harvey and Irma were both handled fairly well, though no one really forecast Irma running over the Cuban coast as it did - that spared SE Florida a much worse fate.

During my weather days, the 1970's operational models had a very wide margin of error - not so now...

the gfs was way right all the way until the end and intensity was garbage too, consistently at 900mb or below..ukmet and euro did the best job overall

So from that we learn the current GFS does not do well with an evolving central atlantic ridge getting pumped by a major hurricane. I can't be too judgemental I saw my benchmark points starting to slip west as Irma rail slid 17.

I agree the GFS tends to be a little hyper with the intensity forecast though.

[Shell Mound]

One should examine the ensemble mean instead of a single operational (EC) run. Notably, the 00Z EC ensembles are more progressive with the mid- to upper-level pattern through day five, allowing Jose to exit the scene, with a more retrogressive and blocking pattern setting in afterward. As Jose exits, a strong ridge builds in over the eastern U.S. and Hudson Bay, which prevents prospective Maria from curving early and instead forces a track toward the Bahamas and Southeastern U.S.; however, the amplitude and orientation of the ridge would affect which area(s) Maria would impact, according to the ensemble mean. Most of the EC ensembles take Maria toward the Southeastern U.S., suggestive of a threat anywhere between the Florida peninsula and the Carolinas, to not mention yet another threat to the Bahamas and northeastern Caribbean. The blocking pattern, if valid, would strongly support a threat to the U.S., though the islands would be and are first in line. The question is how fast Jose exits and whether shortwave ridging north of the islands is oriented along an axis from northeast to southwest or from north to south, which would determine the degree to which Maria interacts with Hispaniola, a key factor in later intensity. ... The 12Z ensembles should arrive shortly and will be interesting to monitor.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS has only ~10 of 50 members having Jose linger. That's our best hope for SE US protection. Otherwise, there are lots of hits from S FL to NC and even 2 that go way out into the GOM.

[Voltron]

Don't forget we have a REPORT button. For those who haven't been around a while, we do not need reminders that these are just model runs because WE KNOW, this is the models thread. If you'd rather just know what the NHC says then the discussion thread is for you. The model threads exist to discuss model runs, and topics related to those runs.

Thanks.

My apologies if I offended anyone, not intentional. Please dont take things personally. Back to the true models.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z EPS has only ~10 of 50 members having Jose linger. That's our best hope for SE US protection. Otherwise, there are lots of hits from S FL to NC and even 2 that go way out into the GOM.

Yep EPS is much more west of the EC op:

[jlauderdal]

Models seem to be working well after a rough start earlier in the season. Harvey and Irma were both handled fairly well, though no one really forecast Irma running over the Cuban coast as it did - that spared SE Florida a much worse fate.

During my weather days, the 1970's operational models had a very wide margin of error - not so now...

the gfs was way right all the way until the end and intensity was garbage too, consistently at 900mb or below..ukmet and euro did the best job overall

So from that we learn the current GFS does not do well with an evolving central atlantic ridge getting pumped by a major hurricane. I can't be too judgemental I saw my benchmark points starting to slip west as Irma rail slid 17.

I agree the GFS tends to be a little hyper with the intensity forecast though.

its not just a matter of a strong hurricane pumping the ridge, the gfs tends to underestimate the ridge and aslo allows hurricanes to head right into ridges and we know that doesnt work..anyway, the euro run wasnt exactly a winner either, looks like we are good out to 5 days, the models can agree we have a hurricane next week, heading thrugh the islands, then r/hispanola area then towards the usa(brownsville to maine all in play and OTS)..other modeling drives it west gulf to nc so in practical terms thats where we should be looking at least until the next euro run

[Voltron]

Hi, can someone tell me how to post a pic of models?

[xironman]

Hi, can someone tell me how to post a pic of models?

Right click what the pic of whatever model site you are on and save it someplace on your device. Then go to a site like imgur.com and click new post and upload the image. Once uploaded they will give you share links for a bulletin board that you can copy.

[AdamFirst]

Hi, can someone tell me how to post a pic of models?

Get an account on an image hosting site, like Imgur

Either save the picture to your computer or copy/paste the link

Upload the picture onto your account, then copy/paste the uploaded image link onto here

[clipper35]

What's with the 12z euro that was interesting to see Maria and Jose merge.

[jlauderdal]

What's with the 12z euro that was interesting to see Maria and Jose merge.

Yeah, hurricanes don't merge, toss the end of that run

[Aric Dunn]

18z. quite a bit more north than the 12z out to 72 hours.

[SouthDadeFish]

18z. quite a bit more north than the 12z out to 72 hours.

Yes, which doesn't seem to make too much sense given recent motion trends.

[Aric Dunn]

18z. quite a bit more north than the 12z out to 72 hours.

Yes, which doesn't seem to make too much sense given recent motion trends.

nope or the strength of the ridging..

it s a good deal slower and more north at 90hors.

[Alyono]

GFS laughably too far north at hour 6

We need to be careful not to use modelology and use meteorology with this one

[Aric Dunn]

The upper levels have a much weaker and flatter trough over the northern gulf.. I dont think its going to pinch off on this run..

by the way at 132 hours its now slower and farther south .. switched places.

[Aric Dunn]

and out of no where the trough over the gulf is stronger and farther west.. hmmm

[perk]

GFS laughably too far north at hour 6

We need to be careful not to use modelology and use meteorology with this one

Glad to here that.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS laughably too far north at hour 6

We need to be careful not to use modelology and use meteorology with this one

"modelology"

What to use to describe the 18z initialization...

[Aric Dunn]

168 hours.. tutt pinches off in gulf. and another pinches of over the mid atlantic.. both retrograding.. should see a more wnw motion.. ?