ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I think its safe to say we have a fairly well established TS likely around 50 to 60 mph..

From 4 hours sgo.. its improved even more since then woth deeper convection in that large curved band wraping around the center..

[Sciencerocks]

Looks to be around 50knts and this could very well become a major hurricane based on the low shear the models are forecasting.

[drezee]

I think its safe to say we have a fairly well established TS likely around 50 to 60 mph..

From 4 hours sgo.. its improved even more since then woth deeper convection in that large curved band wraping around the center..

Nice curvature, deep convection will start the ramp. It is stacked for it. I would expect t hurricane watches by this time tomorrow at the latest

[CrazyC83]

I'd honestly change the TS watches to Hurricane watches, at least for most of the islands. Agreed this is likely a 45-50 kt Maria, and I definitely think it could start RI'ing. I wouldn't be surprised to see it be a major hurricane before the Leewards, and a very intense hurricane in the NE Caribbean.

[GCANE]

Pink Donut.
Likely prelude to RI

[stormreader]

I think its safe to say we have a fairly well established TS likely around 50 to 60 mph..

From 4 hours sgo.. its improved even more since then woth deeper convection in that large curved band wraping around the center..

Sure looks that way!

[GCANE]

Closest Buoy
Going Fast

[Aric Dunn]

Pink Donut.
Likely prelude to RI

and that was 5 plus hours ago.. its improving quite fast now..

[jlauderdal]

I'd honestly change the TS watches to Hurricane watches, at least for most of the islands. Agreed this is likely a 45-50 kt Maria, and I definitely think it could start RI'ing. I wouldn't be surprised to see it be a major hurricane before the Leewards, and a very intense hurricane in the NE Caribbean.

wow, RI, major hurricane before the islands...pretty aggressive stuff there...could happen

[jlauderdal]

When will we know if this will be a threat to Florida peninsula?

its a threat, we just dont know it will materialize..its also a threat to many other places, islands, gulf, nc, maine and the fishes in the atlantic....give it a few days for the modeling to settle down hopefully

[GCANE]

Waaay Off

[jlauderdal]

MIA more bullish discos...lets say it does come to florida, anyplace in florida, the city crews better keep moving on the debris pickup because there are piles of it everywhere in sofla and we know its worse in the keys and sw florida


AS WE PUSH OUT INTO THE EXTENDED, THINGS BECOME LESS CERTAIN. THE
TROPICS ARE BUSY AND WE ARE IN THE PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON. WE ARE STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO BE SURE OF ANYTHING
EVEN WHEN IT COMES TO GENERAL TRENDS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
WE LICK OUR WOUNDS FROM IRMA, IT IS ALWAYS A GOOD POINT TO REMAIN
PREPARED FOR ANY OTHER TROPICAL ACTIVITY THAT MAY COME THIS
SEASON.

[Aric Dunn]

lets see.. NHC probably just going to go to 40mph... but then mention it could be stronger.

[Kazmit]

It's listed as 45mph on Tropical Tidbits. IMO, it visibly appears much stronger.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARIA...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 52.6W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for Antigua,
Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

[Aric Dunn]

wow no they went with 50 mph.. im surprised..

[GCANE]

With the RI and 37GHz way south of forecast points, I wonder if they scramble recon.

[gatorcane]

Ouch now NHC is forecasting 120 knots. Hope Leewards and Puerto Rico are preparing.

[Aric Dunn]

Really wish the NASA site was working.. probably wont get fixed till monday though

[northjaxpro]

With the RI and 37GHz way south of forecast points, I wonder if they scramble recon.

It would really be beneficial to get Recon out there asap!