ATL: MARIA - Models

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banksmanforever
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#241 Postby banksmanforever » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:09 pm

The track of the system seems to be going west and not west north west will this affect the projected path?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#242 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:10 pm

Slower and stronger than last 12Z run.

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#243 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:13 pm

Image

You can step through the frames here: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/62 ... 0600z.html

Note the run time at the bottom of the image. 0Z is early this morning, 12Z is the current run. Refreshing the page will load newer images.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#244 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:16 pm

How's this for a closeup.

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#245 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#246 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:17 pm

Models appear to be targeting Puerto Rico
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#247 Postby forecasterjack » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:18 pm

tolakram wrote:
You can step through the frames here: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/62 ... 0600z.html

Note the run time at the bottom of the image. 0Z is early this morning, 12Z is the current run. Refreshing the page will load newer images.

Glad you're enjoying the site :) you can get many other parameters via those menus to the left of the image as well, for example simulated satellite:
Image
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/623-w-130-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170919-0000z.html
or 700mb RH:
Image
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/623-w-130-n/relative-humidity-700mb/20170919-0000z.html
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#248 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:22 pm

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#249 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:23 pm

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#250 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:23 pm

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#251 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:27 pm

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#252 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:However it seems to be magically plowing through the very large expansive ridge that surrounds it from bermuda all the was to texas and up to canada.. must be some other mechanism turning it. start looking in the upper levels.
The gfs does that sometimes, lol
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#253 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:29 pm

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#254 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:Could be another example of the GFS being too right-biased and we could see more west shifts especially with the CMC shifting west.
Days and days with irma it was too far right
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#255 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:31 pm

ECM leaving Jose behind this run?
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#256 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:32 pm

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#257 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:32 pm

Models seem to be working well after a rough start earlier in the season. Harvey and Irma were both handled fairly well, though no one really forecast Irma running over the Cuban coast as it did - that spared SE Florida a much worse fate.

During my weather days, the 1970's operational models had a very wide margin of error - not so now...
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#258 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:33 pm

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#259 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:33 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Could be another example of the GFS being too right-biased and we could see more west shifts especially with the CMC shifting west.
Days and days with irma it was too far right

It's a known bias with it turning storms straight into ridges. It did it with Irma for days until shifting west.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#260 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:35 pm

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