ATL: MARIA - Models

[gatorcane]

Could be another example of the GFS being too right-biased and we could see more west shifts especially with the CMC shifting west.

[srainhoutx]

However it seems to be magically plowing through the very large expansive ridge that surrounds it from bermuda all the was to texas and up to canada.. must be some other mechanism turning it. start looking in the upper levels.

and here is why..

looks like a mid to upper level trough that is extending from the far southern gulf up to the mid atlantic.

its very narrow though.. if that feature was not there.. florida straights would be in play..

Which is exactly why we cannot trust the guidance beyond 3 to 5 days, especially without added low level and high altitude RECON data and a clearly defined center of circulation. While a cursory interest in the guidance is ok, trying to predict where future Maria will eventually move at hour 186 of any model run is for entertainment purposes.

[M3gaMatch]

What I don't get is why isn't the GFS shearing this thing at all? Is it riding the boundary of that upper trough north so it's ideally positioned just south of the trough and using the trough to expand its outflow channel? I don't know...looks even more complex than Irma was.

[N2FSU]

"Slight" west shift on the 12z Canadian. From just east of Jax to Pensacola.

[Blown Away]

Like with Irma, models showing HP blocking 15L into CONUS...

[northjaxpro]

Unfortunately yes.

Remember, GFS has a tendency of always underestimating the strength of High Pressure ridges which steer these cyclones. Irma is a perfect example.

I do not like this potential set up at all. I am so ready for this terrible hurricane season to end. I am storm weary after Irma afflicted her fury in this region.

[invest man]

Like with Irma, models showing HP blocking 15L into CONUS...

12z GFS shows landfall at Morehead City NC and basically stalling in the coastal areas around New Bern then slowly raining itself out near VA border. This has the appearance to make Floyd of 1999 look like a day at the park as far as flooding . But this is the GFS and it is 9 days out so we should feel good about things! IM

[bamajammer4eva]

Difference between GFS and Canadian. Canadian makes ULL cutoff quicker and drop SW out of the way allowing storm to cross S FL and enter Gulf

[Voltron]

Guys,

Chill out!!! We are like 14 days away here, massive changes. Not a FL hot. Just yesterday models show a NC hit. Big ridge folks, but lots can change. No wishcastinf and doomsday here!! Models will be back and forth. Chill

[tailgater]

Family vacationing in Punta Cana, They are supposed to leaving Tuesday evening. I think I'll shoot them a text after watching these model runs having it arriving Wednesday evening.

[northjaxpro]

Guys,

Chill out!!! We are like 14 days away here, massive changes. Not a FL hot. Just yesterday models show a NC hit. Big ridge folks, but lots can change. No wishcastinf and doomsday here!! Models will be back and forth. Chill

Actually, we are only 8-9 days out, not 14 days.

[Voltron]

Guys,

Chill out!!! We are like 14 days away here, massive changes. Not a FL hot. Just yesterday models show a NC hit. Big ridge folks, but lots can change. No wishcastinf and doomsday here!! Models will be back and forth. Chill

Actually, we are only 8-9 days out, not 14 days.

My point is stiil the same, stop and watch the models as they progress

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least the HWRF does not have a Cat4/5 coming into the islands and PR this run.. at least there is that

[northjaxpro]

Guys,

Chill out!!! We are like 14 days away here, massive changes. Not a FL hot. Just yesterday models show a NC hit. Big ridge folks, but lots can change. No wishcastinf and doomsday here!! Models will be back and forth. Chill

Actually, we are only 8-9 days out, not 14 days.

My point is stiil the same, stop and watch the models as they progress

I am always watching my friend, and just lived through Irma. You are preaching to a choir full of weather experts, pros and amateurs on here.

[AutoPenalti]

Actually, we are only 8-9 days out, not 14 days.

My point is stiil the same, stop and watch the models as they progress

I am always watching my friend, and just lived through Irma. You are preaching to a choir full of weather experts, pros and amateurs on here.

Well, It is a models thread, so making observations based on runs is going happen at some point...

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC 1 week position:

[Voltron]

Actually, we are only 8-9 days out, not 14 days.

My point is stiil the same, stop and watch the models as they progress

I am always watching my friend, and just lived through Irma. You are preaching to a choir full of weather experts, pros and amateurs on here.

That is what I like, logical model watching. Thanks buddy. I do believe from the past model runs we are looking at a CONUS landfall, however it really has more plausibility to be a mid EC event. This is only an opinion based on ridging and of course Jose. Now I will also draw your attention to the fact the GFS is not that great this year and the Euro should be highly considered

[Ivanhater]

What's strikes me the most...models have lows spinning up everywhere....something will pop in the NW Caribbean based on the signals

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is the 12z UKMET text output. For some reason, the graphic from SFWMD is not updating the plots. Can one of you plot the coordinates and post a graphic??

TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.09.2017 12.8N 53.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 17.09.2017 13.5N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.09.2017 14.1N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.09.2017 14.5N 57.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.09.2017 15.0N 58.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.09.2017 15.8N 59.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.09.2017 16.6N 61.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.09.2017 17.4N 62.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.09.2017 17.8N 64.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.09.2017 18.0N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.09.2017 18.9N 66.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.09.2017 20.0N 67.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE


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[CYCLONE MIKE]

NorthJax,

To add to your statement about the gfs always underestimating high pressure, Norma over in the Pacific is another good example. For days it showed Norma going right at Cabo or even east of there, while the euro showed much stronger ridge and nw movement past the southern Baja. Well after days of both showing their solutions over and over, guess which one has started giving in and leaning towards the western solution, you guessed it the gfs.