ATL: MARIA - Models

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#121 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:27 pm

That ain't going OTS
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#122 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:29 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:GFS shifts a bit north, avenue for OTS looks to close.


The avenue is blocked so long as this overall pattern manifests itself in conjunction with Jose traveling far eastward.

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#123 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:31 pm

96L is quicker and further west in the 00z run:

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#124 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:33 pm

Close call
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#125 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:35 pm

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#126 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:35 pm

Ouch Major hurricane for Northern Florida...We dont need this really. :spam:
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#127 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:37 pm

After seeing the 18z GEFS Ensembles I'm not surprised by this 00z GFS operational. I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day! Didn't we just do this like a week and a half ago???
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#128 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:37 pm

Landfall near Jacksonville on the 00z GFS. Threat to EC grows:

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#129 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:38 pm

Landfall (We know this won't happen right? right?)
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#130 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:39 pm

00z GFS going for the rare Jax hit...Not saying it's impossible, just doesn't happen very often.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#131 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:39 pm

I'd bet major disruption if it goes over Haiti so GFS is likely way over done.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#132 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:39 pm

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#133 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:40 pm

SFLcane wrote:I'd bet major disruption if it goes over Haiti so GFS is likely way over done.

It'd have 3 days to ramp back up if that actually played out.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#134 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:40 pm

Canadian massive West shift into Bahamas

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#135 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:41 pm

Jose is the gatekeeper and holds the key. If he hangs around then it will leave the door open. If he leaves then it slams the door shut.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#136 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 pm

SFLcane wrote:I'd bet major disruption if it goes over Haiti so GFS is likely way over done.


There was major disruption from Hispaniola:

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#137 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 pm

Why do i get the feeling we are going in for an IRMA take 2? Bad feeling about this one for Florida sake lets hope not.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#138 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 pm

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Canadian run ends almost mirror image of GFS right near JAX


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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#139 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:45 pm

Canadian...

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#140 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:52 pm

SFLcane wrote:I'd bet major disruption if it goes over Haiti so GFS is likely way over done.

It's possible, depending on how large the storm it is when it hits Hispaniola (the smaller, the faster it will bounce back).

Setup and GFS track reminds me a bit of Hugo shifted a bit west. That area of NE FL/GA is very surge prone with the shape of the coastline in that area. 0Z GFS would be an absolute nightmare.
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