ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Jose looks much more organized this morning, with an eye starting to become apparent on visible satellite imagery:

[GCANE]

DMAX Hot Tower fired at 10:45Z on 26N.
Scat, IR, & 85GHZ all centered at 26N.
Looks like its all spinning together now.

[GCANE]

Overshooting tops on the increase

[CrazyC83]

I would have to suspect we have Hurricane Jose once again?

[Happy Pelican]

Damn. Jose needs to go OTS. That's about all I've got right now.

[Sanibel]

Edit

[Ken711]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

Satellite images indicate that a ragged eye is trying to form with
Jose, although microwave data show that any eyewall features are
broken. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose is close to becoming a
hurricane again, but since an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
will be there in a couple hours, it is best to leave the wind speed
60 kt for now. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for
intensification, as water vapor images show a noticeable improvement
in outflow compared to yesterday. The light-shear window should be
short lived, since southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by
all models on Sunday. Thus some intensification is shown up to
that day, with a gradual weakening forecast after the weekend due to
decreasing SSTs and shear. Little change was made to the previous
intensity forecast.

Jose has turned northwestward overnight at about 8 kt. A west-
northwest to northwest motion is forecast through tomorrow while the
storm moves around the southwestern periphery of a west Atlantic
ridge. Jose is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and continue in
that direction through Tuesday as it moves between the ridge and a
small trough over the southeastern United States. Model guidance
remains in fairly good agreement with the track of Jose, although
the GFS-based guidance is a lot faster than the UKMET or ECMWF
models. The new forecast is about the same as the previous one,
near the corrected-consensus guidance. It is important to note that
the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225
miles, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is currently forecast to pass well
east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-
force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could
approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north
along the U.S. east coast, it is too soon to determine if any other
direct impacts from Jose will occur. Interests along the U.S. east
coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress
of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 26.5N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 27.1N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 29.1N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 30.4N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 33.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 36.1N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

[txwatcher91]

FWIW, the HRRR has done quite well with short term trends of hurricane track this year. It did well with Harvey's landfall location and pinpointed the coastal scrape of Irma along Cuba's coast. Right now it's taking Jose a bit further west than most models do, to about 74W by the end of its run. I'm curious to see if it does well again with things as this is a fairly complex setup and it may not do as well. Jose is looking really good right now with recent microwave passes indicate good banding and convection wrapping around the entire circulation.

[clipper35]

I think the nhc is under playing the intensity outlook, I will go out on a limb and say that jose will get to 105mph before it weakens.

[GCANE]

New tower firing off right on the CoC.
Should clear out the eye after the cirrus settles out.

[GCANE]

All stacked up
26.5N 69.5W

[GCANE]

[txwatcher91]

Recon found extrap pressure around 982 and surface winds 65kts in the NW quad, should justify an upgrade to a hurricane I would think. Center is roughly near 26.7N and 69.6W best I can estimate.

[JBCycloneStan]

Is it just me or is this the year of weak/complex steering current? Harvey, Irma, now Jose. A little worrisome that the NHC is continuing to shift the forecast west. I'm also worried damaging sheer and extratropical transition are unlikely to occur before it could make landfall (possibly as a Cat 2?).

[GCANE]

Just got a drop in the eyewall.
68 knots at the surface.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 16:44:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°43'N 69°45'W (26.7167N 69.75W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)

L. Eye Character (Undecoded): SPIRAL BAND
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)

[GCANE]

[txwatcher91]

Looks like we have an 80mph hurricane then based on the NW eyewall drop. There might even be stronger winds in the NE quad too.

[GCANE]

Looks like we have an 80mph hurricane then based on the NW eyewall drop. There might even be stronger winds in the NE quad too.

Going to be interesting what the next fix will be.
Looks like to me on MIMIC-TPC, it was heading straight west last few frames.

[txwatcher91]

Looks like we have an 80mph hurricane then based on the NW eyewall drop. There might even be stronger winds in the NE quad too.

Going to be interesting what the next fix will be.
Looks like to me on MIMIC-TPC, it was heading straight west last few frames.

I'm watching that too. The HRRR has this moving pretty much straight W or WNW the next 18 hours while the GFS and other models quickly turn this NW. The HRRR did exceptionally well with picking up on Irma's eye riding along the coast of Cuba, it actually showed that happening when other models didn't, so I'm curious to see how well the HRRR handles the expected N turn.