ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

As this turns north what are the water temps in the modeled tracks? Would that be a limiting factor in how strong a hurricane is possible with Jose?

once you get north of the latitude the SSTS drop to the 60 and 70's so weakening would happen fast. unless baroclinically enhanced or moving fast..

[galaxy401]

Jose is quite the vigorous storm. Refusing to give up in the shear. What does the shear outlook look for Jose? Hearing mixed forecasts with the models on that.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah so the next 24-48 hours are crucial. The storm will be in the best environment that it will see in the next 24-48 hours as it moves underneath that upper ridge. After that time, shear begins to increase and SSTs off of the Mid-Atlantic drop fast north of the Gulf Stream. So if this is going to affect the US, it needs to strengthen quickly and get pretty strong so that the trough can pull it closer to the coast. Otherwise, its out to sea. That's why the GEFS members that are strong are closer to the coast and impact land and the weaker ones get deflected offshore.

Jose is quite the vigorous storm. Refusing to give up in the shear. What does the shear outlook look for Jose? Hearing mixed forecasts with the models on that.

['CaneFreak]

So automatically you can throw out over half of the GEFS ensembles. LOL. Its strengthening not weakening. Good catch!

0z Best Track has this up to 70 KT

[txwatcher91]

According to a recent microwave pass, the center is wrapping up nicely now and stacking... it’s no longer at the edge of the convection. A stronger storm goes more to the west.

[ColdMiser123]

So automatically you can throw out over half of the GEFS ensembles. LOL. Its strengthening not weakening. Good catch!

0z Best Track has this up to 70 KT

Thanks. Pressure also down to 985 mb with the 0z Best Track.

[Aric Dunn]

According to a recent microwave pass, the center is wrapping up nicely now and stacking... it’s no longer at the edge of the convection. A stronger storm goes more to the west.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/oPCbHZc.png[/mg]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/roZm3X3.png[img]

The latitude is interesting too.

new (sort of )

[BYG Jacob]

According to a recent microwave pass, the center is wrapping up nicely now and stacking... it’s no longer at the edge of the convection. A stronger storm goes more to the west.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/oPCbHZc.png[/mg]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/roZm3X3.png[img]

The latitude is interesting too.

new (sort of )

Below 25 N? He really booked it south, I wouldn't be shocked to see him at cat 2/3 within the next couple of days and make landfall.

[txwatcher91]

Aric, that’s some impressive banding and it appears by IR that shear is no longer as strong... this could really wrap up tonight and be a category 2 by lunch tomorrow if the shear continues to relax. The GFS has this weakening significantly tonight which appears to be way off the mark. Interestingly, it’s following the UK and it’s ensembles the best so far...

[Ken711]

According to a recent microwave pass, the center is wrapping up nicely now and stacking... it’s no longer at the edge of the convection. A stronger storm goes more to the west.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/oPCbHZc.png[/mg]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/roZm3X3.png[img]

The latitude is interesting too.

new (sort of )

Below 25 N? He really booked it south, I wouldn't be shocked to see him at cat 2/3 within the next couple of days and make landfall.

Hope not.

[BYG Jacob]

The latitude is interesting too.

new (sort of )

Below 25 N? He really booked it south, I wouldn't be shocked to see him at cat 2/3 within the next couple of days and make landfall.

Hope not.

That goes without saying.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Deep convection appears to have expanded out over the estimated
location of the low-level center a bit during the past few hours,
and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt based on a blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS
ADT. Overall, the intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with
moderate shear expected to persist for the next 2-3 days and then
increase further late in the period. Slow weakening is expected
during the first 24 to 36 hours, followed by little change in
intensity during the rest of the forecast period. By day 5, a
mid-level trough will likely be supporting Jose with some baroclinic
energy to maintain the cyclone's intensity in an environment of
higher shear and slightly cooler waters. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/03, as Jose
now appears to be moving slowly westward. A building subtropical
ridge to the east of Jose will become the dominant steering
mechanism through much of the forecast period, with some influence
from the above-mentioned upper-level trough by day 5. This pattern
should cause Jose to gradually turn poleward during the next 72
hours, with a northward to north-northeastward motion expected by
days 4-5. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the
previous one at 48 and 72 hours, but is otherwise similar and lies
roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough
surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 25.2N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 27.0N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 28.0N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 30.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 33.7N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 36.6N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Aric Dunn]

They answered their own "uncertain" motion with the expansion of convection.. I dont see any west motion yet.

[BYG Jacob]

They answered their own "uncertain" motion with the expansion of convection.. I dont see any west motion yet.

I don't see any motion in any direction at the moment

[txwatcher91]

They answered their own "uncertain" motion with the expansion of convection.. I dont see any west motion yet.

It seems odd to me that they're forecasting it to weaken fairly quickly when IR is showing increased organization and lower shear... It's obvious the shear is dropping off and the CIMSS analysis shows that it's close to entering less than 15kts of shear... No mention of the UKMET solution either which continues to be disappointing. If they're going to discount it, I'd like to see some explanations as to why..

[Alyono]

They answered their own "uncertain" motion with the expansion of convection.. I dont see any west motion yet.

It seems odd to me that they're forecasting it to weaken fairly quickly when IR is showing increased organization and lower shear... It's obvious the shear is dropping off and the CIMSS analysis shows that it's close to entering less than 15kts of shear... No mention of the UKMET solution either which continues to be disappointing. If they're going to discount it, I'd like to see some explanations as to why..

they're forecasting weakening because LGEM says so

[Happy Pelican]

Is it me, or do the advisories seem to be a bit "side stepping" in terms of language?

[Aric Dunn]

COnvection still firing in nearly the same location along that eastern eyewall.. if anything that band has slid a little farther south.. the convection expanding west is just that expanding becasue just off to the west the shear drops of a lot so the upper outflow has expanded into that area..

50 images..
IR channel 4

pretty easy to see.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html


very close to the center of the upper ridge

[txwatcher91]

COnvection still firing in nearly the same location along that eastern eyewall.. if anything that band has slid a little farther south.. the convection expanding west is just that expanding becasue just off to the west the shear drops of a lot so the upper outflow has expanded into that area..

50 images..
IR channel 4

pretty easy to see.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html


very close to the center of the upper ridge

[img]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF[/img

Also, the 00z GFS places the center of an anticyclone over Jose by 18z tomorrow which is why it’s showing it strengthening to a cat 2 or 3. IF that did happen, Jose would see much less shear than NHC says and we’d see a cat 2 or 3 no doubt.

[txwatcher91]

Is it me, or do the advisories seem to be a bit "side stepping" in terms of language?

It’s not just you. They seem to be avoiding the hard questions and acting like this is no threat to land anywhere.