ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

Anyone have a guess as to where the LLC is at? Best I can tell from visible, it looks like it's at the NW edge of the convection, but there is some spiral banding forming a bit further south which makes me wonder if it's reforming under the convective mass?

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Northwesterly shear continues to affect Jose, with exposed low cloud
lines over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Overall, the
system is a little less well-organized than it was 24 hours ago,
with less evidence of banding features. The intensity is kept at 65
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.
The global models continue to show significant shear over Jose for
the next several days, and this shear is forecast to become quite
strong by days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast shows a
little weakening in a couple of days, but it would not be surprising
to see Jose drop below hurricane status sooner than shown here.

Jose appears to be nearing the base of its anticipated anticyclonic
loop while drifting slowly southward. The cyclone is expected to
turn to the west and west-northwest over the next day or so. Later
in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid-
level high builds to the east-northeast. Jose is expected to move
through a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days. The official
track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the
middle of the reliable guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 25.3N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 25.1N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 25.4N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 30.3N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 33.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 36.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[txwatcher91]

Discussion from the NHC was a little disappointing. They didn't mention the possibility of a stronger system (as hinted at by the Euro and its ensembles) or mention the UK track either which lies just outside their cone.

[Aric Dunn]

Center looks to be sitting at 25.2 north and drifting south..

[hohnywx]

Discussion from the NHC was a little disappointing. They didn't mention the possibility of a stronger system (as hinted at by the Euro and its ensembles) or mention the UK track either which lies just outside their cone.

I realize the time frame is outside the 5-day cone but you would have thought there would be some mention of the large westward shift in the models.

[Fountainguy97]

Center looks to be sitting at 25.2 north and drifting south..

And every inch south translates exponentially downstream..

Jose still sustaining very deep convection. Notice the massive outflow to the south. Amazing how Jose can maintain convection like this under very heavy shear.

[txwatcher91]

Shear appears to be letting up... a nice surge of convection on the NW side now instead of a flattened look.

[Fountainguy97]

Shear appears to be letting up... a nice surge of convection on the NW side now instead of a flattened look.

Using shortwave IR u can rly see the faint outflow start to push out to the N and NE.

[aperson]

Shear appears to be letting up... a nice surge of convection on the NW side now instead of a flattened look.

Yeah, I'm seeing greatly improved symmetry in the CDO of the dvorak loop over the past 4 hours: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 131830.jpg

[Fountainguy97]

Shear appears to be letting up... a nice surge of convection on the NW side now instead of a flattened look.

Yeah, I'm seeing greatly improved symmetry in the CDO of the dvorak loop over the past 4 hours: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... starting_i
mage=2017AL12_4KMSRBDC_201709131830.jpg

Especially last few frames. Could be just this new hot tower firing though. Need to see if it can hold this symmetry or if it's just a temporary peak. Also noticing an "eye feature" popping out every few hours. Probably indication that the MLC is rly cranking.

[Aric Dunn]

below 25 north even with a tilt.

and still drifting south ish.. se east of the next forecast point..

[weathaguyry]

below 25 north even with a tilt.

and still drifting south ish.. se east of the next forecast point..

Wow, I might even say 24.8/24.9, every mile south it moves means a lot for future track

[wxmann_91]

East progression is more important than south progression. Seems inevitable it will get picked up by the trof initially. But if it's further west, could miss getting slingshotted out into the open Atlantic and get trapped under the building high in New England and eastern Canada.

[xironman]

Does not appear to be weakening

[AxaltaRacing24]

Does not appear to be weakening

Looks a heck of a lot like Joaquin structure wise.

['CaneFreak]

While it might just be a wobble and I might be tracking the MLC and not the LLC, I see some hints of a west movement this evening. The center I am tracking is wobbling and bouncing westward. Maybe 2 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

While it might just be a wobble and I might be tracking the MLC and not the LLC, I see some hints of a west movement this evening. The center I am tracking is wobbling and bouncing westward. Maybe 2 mph.

hard to tell with such a divergent upper environment. could just be convection trying to wrap around. just have to wait and see.

[JBCycloneStan]

At what point will Jose be affected by his own cooling effect on the waters in his wake? If he stalls out for too much longer, will his intensity hold? This one is quite an interesting specimen because of the meandering upper-level envrionment - hopefully, it doesn't make things interesting for the east coast of the CONUS.

[Ken711]

As this turns north what are the water temps in the modeled tracks? Would that be a limiting factor in how strong a hurricane is possible with Jose?

[ColdMiser123]

0z Best Track has this up to 70 KT