ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

I’m noticing recent IR frames show the convection expanding north... a sign shear might be letting up some too. Curious to see what the NHC disco says tonight...

[SouthDadeFish]

Recent microwave passes show the convection is still very asymmetric. There is essentially no convection upshear of the TC center. Jose is living life on the edge right now. I think the 00Z position was a bit south of the SAB fix, but I don't think it's at 26N yet. Close, but not there yet. I think the 18Z GFS has a fairly plausible solution with Jose. I like a track slightly SW of the 18Z GFS in the short-term, but with a similar end game. It's worthy of at least keeping an eye on though.

[Kingarabian]

Bastardi says the UKMET solution has credence and should be considered due to a ridge that is susceptible to pumping due to its location. He splits the difference between the UK and GFS/Euro solution.

[Aric Dunn]

well it is now beginning to pass the 36 hour postion to the south..

[ColdMiser123]

...JOSE LOOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...

11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 12
Location: 26.5°N 66.4°W
Moving: SE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[ColdMiser123]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

Recent microwave imagery has revealed that Jose has a fairly sturdy
structure, despite 20-25 kt of northerly shear. The hurricane has
a well-defined mid-level eye, and a 2241 UTC WindSat pass shows a
well-defined low-level circulation that is slightly eroded on the
northwest side. Since Dvorak final-T numbers are 4.0 from TAFB and
SAB, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, although it wouldn't be
surprising if the winds were a little stronger than that. Jose
could strengthen slightly during the next 12-24 hours while it
remains in a regime of northerly shear, and models like the HWRF
and HCCA support that thinking. After 24 hours, the shear is
expected to turn out of the west-northwest and west directions,
which are less likely to support intensification. Therefore, the
NHC official forecast follows the trend of the intensity consensus
(IVCN), showing Jose becoming a tropical storm on days 3 through 5.
The ECMWF shows Jose encountering significant westerly shear by day
5, so it's possible that NHC forecast may be a little high toward
the end of the forecast period.

The microwave data indicated that Jose's center is a little more
southeast than previously estimated, and the initial motion
estimate is now 125/8 kt. Jose is being pushed southeastward on
the back side of a large mid-latitude trough, but this trough will
soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to
its north. As a result, Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise
loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and
northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge.
Only the UKMET disagrees with this scenario by maintaining a
persistent ridge to the north, and that model is discounted at this
time. The NHC track forecast lies closest to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF for most of the forecast period, and it's only a bit
southwest of the previous forecast through day 3 to account for the
updated initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 26.5N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 25.3N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 25.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 27.3N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 30.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 32.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

[Aric Dunn]

well at least they acknowledged the SE motion.. probably more sse and likely at 26 n and dropping.

[fci]

Wesh 2 guarantees Jose will recurve and not be a threat to Florida or the US.

I look forward to, yet harass; your posts about WESH Mets statements.
If I recall they boldly said Irma was out to sea, then up the sound.
They change so consistently that it is comical.
The fact that they "guarantee" anything is doubly comical and blatantly dangerous.

[SouthDadeFish]

well at least they acknowledged the SE motion.. probably more sse and likely at 26 n and dropping.

NHC has this at 26.5N. I agree with it. The circulation is tilted, so the surface center is a bit N of the mid-level center.

[Sciencerocks]

well it is now beginning to pass the 36 hour postion to the south..

Within my personal opinion it will move a lot more westward compared to the gfs and other models as they're underestimating the ridging to the north once again. Don't know if it'll follow the ukmet yet but the Carolina's need to watch this carefully.

If it can move more under the anti-cyclone to the southwest the stronger this will maintain...This doesn't want to stay to the north within that strong northwesterly shear and that would mean a weaker system that would slip out to sea.

[Aric Dunn]

well at least they acknowledged the SE motion.. probably more sse and likely at 26 n and dropping.

NHC has this at 26.5N. I agree with it. The circulation is tilted, so the surface center is a bit N of the mid-level center.

Fair enough on it being tilted.

[otowntiger]

Wesh 2 guarantees Jose will recurve and not be a threat to Florida or the US.

I look forward to, yet harass; your posts about WESH Mets statements.
If I recall they boldly said Irma was out to sea, then up the sound.
They change so consistently that it is comical.
The fact that they "guarantee" anything is doubly comical and blatantly dangerous.

Don't believe what this guy is telling you what WESH mets are saying. I believe either he exaggerates,. misunderstands what has been said, combination of both or is deliberating trolling.

[fci]

Wesh 2 guarantees Jose will recurve and not be a threat to Florida or the US.

I look forward to, yet harass; your posts about WESH Mets statements.
If I recall they boldly said Irma was out to sea, then up the sound.
They change so consistently that it is comical.
The fact that they "guarantee" anything is doubly comical and blatantly dangerous.

Don't believe what this guy is telling you what WESH mets are saying. I believe either he exaggerates,. misunderstands what has been said, combination of both or is deliberating trolling.

Thank you for clarifying, being an Orlando resident.
He posts WESH all the time and I can't help but notice the wide range of solutions they supposedly present and how confidently he depicts that they say them. Glad to hear that his reporting appears inaccurate to one who knows.

[Aric Dunn]

recent convective pattern and curvature showing that if it was not below 26N it is now.. even tilted its on 26 or below..

[Aric Dunn]

Even tilted puts it at 26 north. mid level "eye' 25.85 ish

[1900hurricane]

Here is the recent METOP-B pass. Looks pretty tilted still. The mid-level center may have actually slid south away from the low level center a little bit compared to the recent Coriolis pass posted earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the recent METOP-B pass. Looks pretty tilted still. The mid-level center may have actually slid south away from the low level center a little bit compared to the recent Coriolis pass posted earlier.

that was a little over 2 hours ago.. the mid level is barely above 26. the low level probably 26.15 ish..

likely down to aroun 25.9 is..

[txwatcher91]

It’s a bit concerning that Jose is organizing like this with 20 to 25kts of shear...

[1900hurricane]

Here is the recent METOP-B pass. Looks pretty tilted still. The mid-level center may have actually slid south away from the low level center a little bit compared to the recent Coriolis pass posted earlier.

[image removed]

that was a little over 2 hours ago.. the mid level is barely above 26. the low level probably 26.15 ish..

likely down to aroun 25.9 is..

I am aware, but I figured the more recent METOP-A pass wasn't worth posting.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the recent METOP-B pass. Looks pretty tilted still. The mid-level center may have actually slid south away from the low level center a little bit compared to the recent Coriolis pass posted earlier.

[image removed]

that was a little over 2 hours ago.. the mid level is barely above 26. the low level probably 26.15 ish..

likely down to aroun 25.9 is..

I am aware, but I figured the more recent METOP-A pass wasn't worth posting.

yeah, not much help . but thanks