ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

The NHC 11:00 PM report is going to be very interesting.

[AutoPenalti]

Something just feels off, I never had a hunch like this before.


Nevertheless, I'm prepared, I was able to assess the damage from Irma and we only lost a couple of branches and our canopy that was built. Our power was somehow only partially turned off. A/C was turned off and some of our appliances are turned off.

[CrazyC83]

I'm still taking this seriously as a possibility. It's losing latitude and is already in a location where it would not be a climatological stretch for it to make a run at Florida.

It would really be a nightmare even if this just got close. History isn't exactly lacking examples of a similar location in the Atlantic getting another hit in the same season, though.

How does this compare to Jeanne?

[Aric Dunn]

its down to 26 north now.. dropping SSE ..

[jlauderdal]

The UKMET is a solid model. It has performed quite well in recent years with Joaquin, Matthew and now Irma.

I would not be quick to dismiss what this model is suggesting, as some of the experts (Morales, Setzer) I see are doing. I hope the other models are right, but I am feeling a bit nauseous about the UKMET right now and its solution. I pray that the UKMET is wrong.

if they are going to just go with the nhc track im fine with that but dont show the pasta plots,to be fair they dont have time to explain the nuances, performance, etc of the different model runs so why show them in the first place...we have 6 weeks to go and more hurricanes have hit florida in october than any other month

[jlauderdal]

Something just feels off, I never had a hunch like this before.


Nevertheless, I'm prepared, I was able to assess the damage from Irma and we only lost a couple of branches and our canopy that was built. Our power was somehow only partially turned off. A/C was turned off and some of our appliances are turned off.

if people arent prepared after dealing with irma i dont know what it will take...everyone has had plenty of practice except all the people in gas lines today, if you filled up before the storm why would you need gas, nothing has been open since friday, makes no sense and i didnt see people filling cans for their generators, it was their cars

[joey]

Anyone know how far is Jose from Miami fl thanks

[aperson]

its down to 26 north now.. dropping SSE ..

Looks like about 25.95N 66.45W to me but I'm bad at this. That would put it farther south than the last Euro got in 48h and GFS in 24h.

[txwatcher91]

I keep hearing about the diurnal cycle of convection but in what parts of the day are the peaks exactly? I had heard convection peaks in the morning, but that doesn't sound right. Seems to peak in the evening?

With a TC it typically peaks in the early morning when the temperature differential between the ocean and atmosphere high up are greatest. During the day that lessens and convection is a bit harder to maintain, especially in a developing TC or one over marginal water.

Makes sense. I was thinking evening (~5-6 pm) because that's when I see thunderstorms but that's over land. I guess it's different over sea.

Yeah the air temp stays fairly constant over the openocean and doesn’t increase 20 to 30 degrees like it does over land. Stronger hurricanes though don’t see much of an effect it’s usually just the tropical storms, developing systems and weak hurricanes that see the biggest benefit.

[NJWxHurricane]

its down to 26 north now.. dropping SSE ..

Looks like about 25.95N 66.45W to me but I'm bad at this. That would put it farther south than the last Euro got in 48h and GFS in 24h.

easy there definitely not that low yet bud

[sma10]

its down to 26 north now.. dropping SSE ..

As a simple point of reference, the most recent UK run places Jose at 25.4 66.1 at 8am tomorrow morning.

[Aric Dunn]

FRom 3 hours ago..

very good structure given the environment is supposed hostile. now its down pushing past 26 north welll ahead of time and farther west..

its also probably around 90 mph..

[Aric Dunn]

its down to 26 north now.. dropping SSE ..

As a simple point of reference, the most recent UK run places Jose at 25.4 66.1 at 8am tomorrow morning.

that is very possible.

[txwatcher91]

FRom 3 hours ago..

very good structure given the environment is supposed hostile. now its down pushing past 26 north welll ahead of time and farther west..

its also probably around 90 mph..

Looks like it’s trying to close off an eyewall... some very intense convection on the SE side and impressive considering the supposedly hostile conditions it’s in.

[Ken711]

Isn't the GFS lower than the Euro at 24 and 48 hours, and also closer to the mid-Atlantic coast.

[Fountainguy97]

One thing that is now really noticeable is how quick Jose is. Jose is already at the 24 hour plots for some models (a few even 48 hr). Is it a logical assumption that the quicker speed lends to a UK Solution just for the reason that it can push further south under these steering currents?

If this is the case. UK has it in the bag. Unless Jose completely stops moving for 24-36hrs

[storm_in_a_teacup]

With a TC it typically peaks in the early morning when the temperature differential between the ocean and atmosphere high up are greatest. During the day that lessens and convection is a bit harder to maintain, especially in a developing TC or one over marginal water.

Makes sense. I was thinking evening (~5-6 pm) because that's when I see thunderstorms but that's over land. I guess it's different over sea.

Yeah the air temp stays fairly constant over the openocean and doesn’t increase 20 to 30 degrees like it does over land. Stronger hurricanes though don’t see much of an effect it’s usually just the tropical storms, developing systems and weak hurricanes that see the biggest benefit.

Why does it have little effect on the stronger ones? There's simply not much more they can grow in intensity?

[ColdMiser123]

Definitely getting a Joaquin vibe in terms of overall satellite appearence.

Mostly as a result from northerly shear.

[txwatcher91]

Makes sense. I was thinking evening (~5-6 pm) because that's when I see thunderstorms but that's over land. I guess it's different over sea.

Yeah the air temp stays fairly constant over the openocean and doesn’t increase 20 to 30 degrees like it does over land. Stronger hurricanes though don’t see much of an effect it’s usually just the tropical storms, developing systems and weak hurricanes that see the biggest benefit.

Why does it have little effect on the stronger ones? There's simply not much more they can grow in intensity?

My assumption based on what I’ve read is that a stronger hurricane is able to sustain deeper convection much easier whereas a wave and developing TC tend to pulse up and down. A hurricane typically will have a nice CDO and won’t pulse up and down which is why the dmax has less of a noticeable affect.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

FRom 3 hours ago..

very good structure given the environment is supposed hostile. now its down pushing past 26 north welll ahead of time and farther west..

its also probably around 90 mph..

Looks like it’s trying to close off an eyewall... some very intense convection on the SE side and impressive considering the supposedly hostile conditions it’s in.

He's trying his best. A real determinator.