ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I cannot believe Pasch said that the UK is well south and west for unknown reasons

The reason is obvious. The UKMET is MUCH stronger

The next 48 hours will determine if Jose strikes the USA or remains well offshore

I found that to be a rather odd statement too...its been well diagnosed on this thread, maybe we should send pasch the link to the model and disco thread...setzer and phill ferro both say its definitely missing us...that seems unwise considering its not unreasonable to make a run at the east coast

I agree that it was premature for setzer and ferro to say this will miss us. The UKMET did an amazing job with Irma, and with Jose strengthening, we cannot ignore the UKMET. Based on the steering at the mid and upper levels posted by another member above, a strengthening Jose is more likely to follow the UKMET guidance over the other models.

[CrazyC83]

Is there an upper-level chart for the UKMET? I wonder what it is seeing the others aren't.

Regardless, it just gives us a bit of anxiety even when everyone else says we are safe.

[aperson]

Anyone got a link to a satellite w/ 5m or less refresh on the system? RAMMB-slider doesn't seem to be updating past 15:00 UTC for me.

Edit: Answered my own question: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[gatorcane]

It is definitely losing latitude, animated saved IR loops below. A lot of people in Florida have no idea this is out there as they do not have power still from Irma:

[Kingarabian]

Damn, that convective mass is rather large...


When can we get a plane to sample it?

[CrazyC83]

I agree, we need at least a G-IV flight in the western Atlantic to either get ready to prepare or to breathe easy.

[GCANE]

Just got F17 pass.
Rain rate off scale.
Resolution is bad, but maybe 3 hot towers.

[jlauderdal]

I cannot believe Pasch said that the UK is well south and west for unknown reasons

The reason is obvious. The UKMET is MUCH stronger

The next 48 hours will determine if Jose strikes the USA or remains well offshore

I found that to be a rather odd statement too...its been well diagnosed on this thread, maybe we should send pasch the link to the model and disco thread...setzer and phill ferro both say its definitely missing us...that seems unwise considering its not unreasonable to make a run at the east coast

I agree that it was premature for setzer and ferro to say this will miss us. The UKMET did an amazing job with Irma, and with Jose strengthening, we cannot ignore the UKMET. Based on the steering at the mid and upper levels posted by another member above, a strengthening Jose is more likely to follow the UKMET guidance over the other models.

craig setzer and john morlales are really good, i was very surprised he was so sure then he shows the spaghettis(they need to stop that asap) and there is the uk sitting there and he just blows it off, how can you just blow it off after it was so good with irma and sniffed out the run near cuba and the westward track...you either discuss the models in depth like we do here and we all know what has been good, what hasnt, if you are going to show the spaghetti so everyone understands but of course its tv they dont have time nor does the audience care so all i relly does is confuse the crap out of the average viewer, they arent educating anyone with the pasta models, it just confuses people..anyway, jose most likely not coming here but i dont think you go on air and just discount the ukmet completely

[jlauderdal]

I cannot believe Pasch said that the UK is well south and west for unknown reasons

The reason is obvious. The UKMET is MUCH stronger

The next 48 hours will determine if Jose strikes the USA or remains well offshore

I found that to be a rather odd statement too...its been well diagnosed on this thread, maybe we should send pasch the link to the model and disco thread...setzer and phill ferro both say its definitely missing us...that seems unwise considering its not unreasonable to make a run at the east coast

I agree that it was premature for setzer and ferro to say this will miss us. The UKMET did an amazing job with Irma, and with Jose strengthening, we cannot ignore the UKMET. Based on the steering at the mid and upper levels posted by another member above, a strengthening Jose is more likely to follow the UKMET guidance over the other models.

so alonyo posts and says will know in 2 days, that statement by alnoyo seems much more reasonable and accurate than miami mets just taking then nhc track and running with it out to sea...it is simiar in a sense to those houston mets on kprc that kept talking about dry air but the dry air was in the mid levels meanwhile we have tropical setup with tons of rain being produced in the lower levels, it poured for an entire day after they kept talking about dry air

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS doesn't show Jose dropping south of about 25N in the 36 to 48 hour window so hoping the current dive ends soon.

[northjaxpro]

The UKMET is a solid model. It has performed quite well in recent years with Joaquin, Matthew and now Irma.

I would not be quick to dismiss what this model is suggesting, as some of the experts (Morales, Setzer) I see are doing. I hope the other models are right, but I am feeling a bit nauseous about the UKMET right now and its solution. I pray that the UKMET is wrong.

[gatorcane]

Here is another loop. It is losing latitude quickly. Looks more like SSE or SE:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

Here is another loop. It is losing latitude quickly. Looks more like SSE or SE:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

yes at this rate it will be below 25 north by 5am..

you should open your loops but with colored IR and make a gif of the first image and the last.. very apparent..

also its current motion sure does look like that blue line right now... I mean compare current motion with the other models.. .. hmmm

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Wow, now that's a hot tower.

Jose is wasting no time with diurnal convective maximum approaching. Going to be interesting to see what it pulls off tonight with better rotation given the explosive convection all throughout last night.

I keep hearing about the diurnal cycle of convection but in what parts of the day are the peaks exactly? I had heard convection peaks in the morning, but that doesn't sound right. Seems to peak in the evening?

[aperson]

Wow, now that's a hot tower.

Jose is wasting no time with diurnal convective maximum approaching. Going to be interesting to see what it pulls off tonight with better rotation given the explosive convection all throughout last night.

I keep hearing about the diurnal cycle of convection but in what parts of the day are the peaks exactly? I had heard convection peaks in the morning, but that doesn't sound right. Seems to peak in the evening?

My understanding is that convective potential peaks on land in the mid-afternoon and peaks in the ocean in the early morning. This can create a pressure gradient that causes sea breezes along land-ocean boundaries, and it also seems to be part of the cause of convection flaring up shortly after sundown in tropical cyclones.

[txwatcher91]

Wow, now that's a hot tower.

Jose is wasting no time with diurnal convective maximum approaching. Going to be interesting to see what it pulls off tonight with better rotation given the explosive convection all throughout last night.

I keep hearing about the diurnal cycle of convection but in what parts of the day are the peaks exactly? I had heard convection peaks in the morning, but that doesn't sound right. Seems to peak in the evening?

With a TC it typically peaks in the early morning when the temperature differential between the ocean and atmosphere high up are greatest. During the day that lessens and convection is a bit harder to maintain, especially in a developing TC or one over marginal water.

[NotSparta]

Wow, now that's a hot tower.

Jose is wasting no time with diurnal convective maximum approaching. Going to be interesting to see what it pulls off tonight with better rotation given the explosive convection all throughout last night.

I keep hearing about the diurnal cycle of convection but in what parts of the day are the peaks exactly? I had heard convection peaks in the morning, but that doesn't sound right. Seems to peak in the evening?

Peaks in the morning, bottoms out in the evening. It's much more pronounced in twaves (some of which would lose convection at DMIN to replace it at dmax) but systems such as Jose can be affected by it too

[joey]

18Z GFS doesn't show Jose dropping south of about 25N in the 36 to 48 hour window so hoping the current dive ends soon.

Maybe it going to dive further south to Cuba then make the turn possible ? Thanks

[Patrick99]

I'm still taking this seriously as a possibility. It's losing latitude and is already in a location where it would not be a climatological stretch for it to make a run at Florida.

It would really be a nightmare even if this just got close. History isn't exactly lacking examples of a similar location in the Atlantic getting another hit in the same season, though.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Jose is wasting no time with diurnal convective maximum approaching. Going to be interesting to see what it pulls off tonight with better rotation given the explosive convection all throughout last night.

I keep hearing about the diurnal cycle of convection but in what parts of the day are the peaks exactly? I had heard convection peaks in the morning, but that doesn't sound right. Seems to peak in the evening?

With a TC it typically peaks in the early morning when the temperature differential between the ocean and atmosphere high up are greatest. During the day that lessens and convection is a bit harder to maintain, especially in a developing TC or one over marginal water.

Makes sense. I was thinking evening (~5-6 pm) because that's when I see thunderstorms but that's over land. I guess it's different over sea.