ATL: JOSE - Models

[jlauderdal]

Wasn't UKMET also the one that forecasted Harvey correctly?

And weren't they also the first model to predict Irma hitting Cuba? I may be wrong, that's why I'm wondering, haha.

That blue line has been deadly accurate lately. It better be wrong this time...Its been the leader of trends with Matt Harvey and Irma. Untill it flips out to sea my shutters stay up.

My shutters are down but staying outside by the windows until late october

[hohnywx]

NAVGEM has Jose hitting NJ next week.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro kills it in the mid levels by 72 hours.. keeps it a weak shallow system which is why it likely is out to sea..

I think the models will start trending west if jose continues to be deeper.

[plasticup]

Pretty sure that is 6 runs in a row. The seperation grows between all the models and ukmet.

The thing i just noticed is the ukmet intialized it further ese from the nhc 11am position. Which is where i pegged the center earlier. It has been moving ese for at least 8 hours

Any insight into why there is such a massive discrepancy?

[Steve]

Pretty sure that is 6 runs in a row. The seperation grows between all the models and ukmet.

The thing i just noticed is the ukmet intialized it further ese from the nhc 11am position. Which is where i pegged the center earlier. It has been moving ese for at least 8 hours

Any insight into why there is such a massive discrepancy?

Yeah. He speculated on the last page that it's initialized farther SE than the NHC and some of the other models.

The thing i just noticed is the ukmet intialized it further ese from the nhc 11am position. Which is where i pegged the center earlier. It has been moving ese for at least 8 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty sure that is 6 runs in a row. The seperation grows between all the models and ukmet.

The thing i just noticed is the ukmet intialized it further ese from the nhc 11am position. Which is where i pegged the center earlier. It has been moving ese for at least 8 hours

Any insight into why there is such a massive discrepancy?

Yeah. He speculated on the last page that it's initialized farther SE than the NHC and some of the other models.

The thing i just noticed is the ukmet intialized it further ese from the nhc 11am position. Which is where i pegged the center earlier. It has been moving ese for at least 8 hours

Also just 2 posts ip..

[AutoPenalti]

I think the UKMET may be on to something.

[Ken711]

I think the UKMET may be on to something.

I hope not. We need a break this season after Harvey and Irma.

[Ken711]

NAVGEM has Jose hitting NJ next week.

So does the CMC.

[txwatcher91]

I think the UKMET may be on to something.

I think so too. It's hard to get center fixes but my best guess based on visible, it seems this is sliding ESE right now and wrapping up quite nicely. It has that "fist" look to it that many times precedes periods of fast intensification.

[gatorcane]

Boy I hope the UKMET is wrong here. We were really pounded by Irma here in SE Florida with so many people out of power and lots of tree damage along with some structural damage here and there. Obviously it could have been a lot worse but another storm so soon would really not be good.

[brghteys1216]

According to the chart in this tweet, UKMET even outperformed the NHC official forecast with Irma from 120-36 hours out. Definitely worth noting.

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/907639590453956609

[jonj2040]

According to the chart in this tweet, UKMET even outperformed the NHC official forecast with Irma from 120-36 hours out. Definitely worth noting.

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/907639590453956609

On hour 0 some of the models already show error does that mean that they initialized incorrectly?

[shaneomac]

I cant see UK being right this time , its literally every model against it .. but still week away . but i dont see this going into florida but still a long ways to go tho but the likely scenario is out to sea

[hohnywx]

I cant see UK being right this time , its literally every model against it .. but still week away . but i dont see this going into florida but still a long ways to go tho but the likely scenario is out to sea

Be careful with statements like that...we also saw two models come WAY west at 12z (CMC and NAVGEM).

[Aric Dunn]

And its pretty clear from satellite the shear is not weakening jose. If anything he looks much better amd also not heading straight east. More ese..

[Kazmit]

A bit of an eastward shift today from most of the models.

[sma10]

And its pretty clear from satellite the shear is not weakening jose. If anything he looks much better amd also not heading straight east. More ese..

I guess the short-term trend to watch for over the next 12-18 hours would be if Jose gains an even more pronounced southern motion. If by tomorrow afternoon the system is south of 25N on a S or SSW heading, the UK may be on to something.

[hohnywx]

A bit of an eastward shift today from most of the models.

This is just a map of the GFS ensembles.

[txwatcher91]

I wonder if we see the models start shifting more to the west tonight... the center appears to be drifting to the ESE now and not east like most models had shown would happen. Should be interesting to see..