GBPackMan wrote:otowntiger wrote:GBPackMan wrote:
The UK models had predicted it going much further south into Cuba, just inland from the southern shore before the turn, a much slower turn sending it into the gulf (several towards the panhandle) most runs, and over Cuba for a much longer duration.... It was always the westernmost outlier. It showed the trend much better overall but was a bit more "extreme" relating to far it would move outside of 48 hours, putting less weight on the trough and upper level shear.
I guess it depends on your definition of 'extreme' but it sure didn't wind up that far off in my opinion. When. All the models were still showing an east coast event, ukmet was taking Irma to Cuba and back north into sw Florida IIRC.
The real track ended up closer with UKMET and Euro than the others going 48-72 hours out, but with its westerly movement both were still consistently south and west of actual track. Once it made that northern turn, UK and Euro were consistently too far west and the UK model lost its accuracy at that point. For the westerly motion, it showed a trend but did not have the accuracy of other models. Some are excellent at 6-24 hours, some are better at 24-48, but accuracy for all of them degrades greatly beyond 48 hours, meaning you have to look at the trend, not actual positioning.
Other models did much better after that northern turn, as if some models can handle East/West interactions better, and others can handle north/south interactions better. After the turn GFS was much more spot on than the Euro/UK models that kept it out in the Gulf heading towards the panhandle.
Yes, from what I've noticed the UKMET is good for predicting general patterns and track of a TC 3+ days out where others may struggle. Euro seems to excel with strong ridging pushing a wave west across the Atlantic but struggles with the N turn while GFS seems to want to recurve something moving west too soon but when a storm does move north it excels. That's why the UKMET is interesting for Jose... it seems to do the best at picking out a general track in these "complex" setups even moreso than the Euro.
