ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Keeping our shutters up until Jose decides what to do. Don't want to repeat this cycle next week if by some off chance it does come here.

Wish more people are like you and follow suit.

[jabman98]

Keeping our shutters up until Jose decides what to do. Don't want to repeat this cycle next week if by some off chance it does come here.

Makes sense. Maybe take down one if you just need a bit of light. Not as arduous to put up one as compared to the entire house.

I don't want Jose to hit anyone but FL is a bad scenario. People won't really have time to re-prepare.

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 69.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

[forecasterjack]

Jose's steering flow backs significantly with height. The stronger the storm is, the farther SW it will track and the greater threat it will post to the US. Link to free ECMWF data: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/wind-925mb/20170915-0600z.html change levels via menus left of image.

[1900hurricane]

This guy knows his microwave (cc: SouthDadeFish).

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/907358381152849920

[Aric Dunn]

anyone else notice the the very large upper high that has been slowly moving towards JOSE... you can already see it in the outflow from jose.. if that high slides any farther east jose wont have a shear problem anymore

['CaneFreak]

Yep. As Irma dissipates over the Southeastern US, this sets up the perfect pattern for yet another CONUS landfall. You have low heights over the mainland US, an upper high building in over the western Atlantic, and a massive ridge over the northwestern Atlantic. Hopefully, this will not impact the areas that have already been devastated. Good grief. Jose is definitely one to watch along the US East Coast.

anyone else notice the the very large upper high that has been slowly moving towards JOSE... you can already see it in the outflow from jose.. if that high slides any farther east jose wont have a shear problem anymore

[Aric Dunn]

you know.. I am curious how much this shear will actually drive the circ farther south... as the convection builds south so shall the center follow.. combined with the ridging ? maybe all the models are underestimating the southerly motion.

[tgenius]

you know.. I am curious how much this shear will actually drive the circ farther south... as the convection builds south so shall the center follow.. combined with the ridging ? maybe all the models are underestimating the southerly motion.

Aric, we don't want that here in Miami, already enough damage done by Irma! What chance do you give for Jose to come this way?

[Ken711]

you know.. I am curious how much this shear will actually drive the circ farther south... as the convection builds south so shall the center follow.. combined with the ridging ? maybe all the models are underestimating the southerly motion.

What's the maximum intensity you think Jose could achieve assuming it stays north of the Bahamas? This isn't a future major I hope.

[Aric Dunn]

you know.. I am curious how much this shear will actually drive the circ farther south... as the convection builds south so shall the center follow.. combined with the ridging ? maybe all the models are underestimating the southerly motion.

Aric, we don't want that here in Miami, already enough damage done by Irma! What chance do you give for Jose to come this way?

To early to say.. going off models. only about 20 percent have a track more to the sw.

[Aric Dunn]

you know.. I am curious how much this shear will actually drive the circ farther south... as the convection builds south so shall the center follow.. combined with the ridging ? maybe all the models are underestimating the southerly motion.

What's the maximum intensity you think Jose could achieve assuming it stays north of the Bahamas? This isn't a future major I hope.

north seems weaker..

[NotSparta]

you know.. I am curious how much this shear will actually drive the circ farther south... as the convection builds south so shall the center follow.. combined with the ridging ? maybe all the models are underestimating the southerly motion.

What's the maximum intensity you think Jose could achieve assuming it stays north of the Bahamas? This isn't a future major I hope.

Probably 155mph, I don't see Jose getting above that again

[aperson]

Really explosive convection on Jose at the moment. It's maxing out the temperature on GOES-16 IR: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider



Edit: Looks really impressive on geocolor too. It's starting to get that striated pattern that I see in the CDO of intense systems.

[1900hurricane]

Deep convection appears to be largely shear driven, somewhat like In-fa '15 late in its life. The shear has largely gutted Jose's core. NHC dropped to 75 kt for 00Z, but I'm skeptical that Jose is even a hurricane right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Deep convection appears to be largely shear driven, somewhat like In-fa '15 late in its life. The shear has largely gutted Jose's core. NHC dropped to 75 kt for 00Z, but I'm skeptical that Jose is even a hurricane right now.

very divergent at the moment..

also the low level structure is pretty intact and could easily be supporting 75kt.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017

Jose remains resilient in the face of 25 kts of northeasterly shear,
with a new burst of deep convection near the center giving the
system a slightly better satellite presentation over the last couple
of hours. Even so, the convection is pulsing, and satellite based
intensity estimates support lowering the initial intensity estimate
to 75 kt for this advisory.

Due to some uncertainty as to the center location, the initial
motion for this advisory is approximated to be 045/05 kts. Latest
round of forecast guidance is consistent with the ongoing forecast
philosophy, with Jose expected to complete an anticyclonic or
clockwise loop over the next 3 days. A mid-level ridge to the
southeast of Jose will shift west then northwest of Jose, leading to
a southeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the ridge
shifts to the north of the cyclone, Jose will briefly stall before
resuming a more typical track toward the west and northwest on days
4 and 5. Even with such a complex track expected to evolve, there is
good agreement amongst most of the model guidance. The latest
official forecast is very close to the previous one, nudged only
slightly northward toward the FSSE and other consensus members, but
left of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. UKMET and its ensemble
mean continue to be on the southwest side of the guidance cone, and
these outliers therefore have little impact on the official
track forecast at this time.

The shear that Jose is encountering is associated with an
upper-level ridge centered to the northwest, and even as this
feature weakens the next day or so, moderate shear is forecast
persist as Jose remains over 29C water. These conflicting inputs are
expected to lead to little change in intensity through day 3, with
some potential for Jose to intensify toward the end of the forecast
period as shear relaxes as Jose moves away from its own cold
wake. The latest intensity forecast is of low confidence at this
time due to the above factors and keeps Jose a hurricane through the
forecast period, and closely resembles SHIPS and IVCN intensity
guidance.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami will resume issuance of
advisories for Jose at the next forecast cycle. Thanks to the
Weather Prediction Center, NWS Forecast offices, supporting staff
and many participating partners for ensuring a successful continuity
of operations during the past several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 27.1N 69.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 27.5N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 27.1N 67.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 25.4N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 27.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 29.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard/Roth/Sisko

[emeraldislenc]

Can someone show the graphics from the 11 pm advisory for some reason it will not refresh

[Aric Dunn]

That is some serious sustained very very deep convection..

[cycloneye]

Can someone show the graphics from the 11 pm advisory for some reason it will not refresh