ATL: JOSE - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Watch the models shift more south and west...

[lando]

Next euro soon will
Be interesting, as well as ensembles. I put little faith in gfs but all faith in ukmet and euro. This could be a repeat of 2004

[TheStormExpert]

Watch the models shift more south and west...

Hopefully they don't! But that unfortunately has been the trend with many storms in this region this and last season.

[fendie]

12Z JMA track very similar to 12Z UKMET with a track thru the Bahamas and then North along the East Coast of FL.

12Z GFS path is similar to the 6Z with a recurve just North of the Bahamas and then a track North offshore the eastern seaboard with landfall the night of Wednesday September 20th around Ocean City/Atlantic City, NJ. The 6Z had the storm coming inland 200 miles SW earlier in the day on the 20th around Virginia Beach, VA.

12Z CMC makes a sharper turn out to see with a more Eastern component. Jose is a few hundred miles WNW of Bermuda the night of Wednesday the 20th.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS

[shaneomac]

I have a strong feeling this is going to come close to Maine/Nova Scotia.. Euro has been consistent with weakening the Atlantic ridge therefore gets caught in the trof moving in .. so more easterly track , while the gfs i think its to strong and having the ridge to strong in the Atlantic causing it come into the coast .. UK/jma has mind of its own "weal steering flow" causing it to stall then move into Bahamas ? i dont know i just dont buy that solution but i would go with a blend of Euro and GFS Euro has been doing good the past few storms in the medium/long range .

[BYG Jacob]

More models shifting south and west with some showing landfall on the U.S. Think we may end up to a similar situation with Irma where the models shift to the point that landfall is inevitable. It was nice of the force field to take the one year off where the Atlantic goes bananas.

[Exalt]

12Z GFS

Might be kinda like a stronger Irene..

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS

Well that's just great. Glad this is still a ways out.

[txwatcher91]

Anyone have the UK text output for this one? On the low res graphics this looks pretty powerful... possibly cat 5 when near FL...

[supercane4867]

12z UKMET

[RL3AO]

Comparing the 12z GFS to the 0z Euro.

Through 5 days, the GFS is a little further west, but synoptically the two models are mostly in agreement. By day 6, the GFS seems to have a stronger Azores ridge and a stronger ridge over the Great Lakes region. Euro is much faster with the central Canada trough in a week or so, leading to a turn out to sea. A complex situation so a lot can change. There does seem to be a hint at the synoptic pattern which supports something getting close to the Outer Banks and maybe the Northeast if the ridge over SE Canada builds in like the GFS shows.

[BYG Jacob]

12z UKMET

UKMET telling Florida they haven't had enough yet.

[txwatcher91]

Comparing the 12z GFS to the 0z Euro.

Through 5 days, the GFS is a little further west, but synoptically the two models are mostly in agreement. By day 6, the GFS seems to have a stronger Azores ridge and a stronger ridge over the Great Lakes region. Euro is much faster with the central Canada trough in a week or so, leading to a turn out to sea. A complex situation so a lot can change. There does seem to be a hint at the synoptic pattern which supports something getting close to the Outer Banks and maybe the Northeast if the ridge over SE Canada builds in like the GFS shows.

The UK agreeing with the GFS leads me to believe the Euro might start trending that way as well. The UK has done pretty well this year, at least with Irma and Harvey it did fairly well. The GEFS did shift west a good bit too with more members buying into the close to FL and OBX track. Probably won't have a good idea until Jose completes his loop in the next few days.

[Ken711]

Comparing the 12z GFS to the 0z Euro.

Through 5 days, the GFS is a little further west, but synoptically the two models are mostly in agreement. By day 6, the GFS seems to have a stronger Azores ridge and a stronger ridge over the Great Lakes region. Euro is much faster with the central Canada trough in a week or so, leading to a turn out to sea. A complex situation so a lot can change. There does seem to be a hint at the synoptic pattern which supports something getting close to the Outer Banks and maybe the Northeast if the ridge over SE Canada builds in like the GFS shows.

I think the Euro will shift east this 12Z run as you mention and come very close to the Outer Banks.

[smithtim]

I cannot believe I am sitting here watching GFS 00z run for Jose while my weather station at my house still is showing 50MPH gusts outside from Irma. This is surreal.

Amen brother this is just insanity, in all my years I can't remember anything as crazy as this season in Florida. It's like if you combined all we got in 04 then add in the 2005 season with Katrinas flooding in parrall to what we just saw with Harvey.

For the models and forecast I think Aric is spot on with Bahamas by weekend, let us just hope & pray for an OTS after...

[Aric Dunn]

I see the UKMET is sticking to its guns.. that's 4 runs in a row...

[jlauderdal]

12z UKMET

UKMET telling Florida they haven't had enough yet.

took the hurricane panels down but left them in stacks by the windows and doors, 6 weeks to go, power was out less than 24 hours, good test run for my generator

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro 48 hrs

[AxaltaRacing24]

72 hrs