ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

A large factor in the track will be how far west Jose goes when completing the loop. If the loop is tight, Bermuda could be in play. If it continues west for longer than expected, it could be a problem for the East Coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

You guys should go over to the Jose models thread. In for a surprise from the Ukmet...


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[BYG Jacob]

Jose is in warm water, however, he appears to be in moderate shear and has dry air around him, I would expect either flat or weakening intensity in the short term.

[Ptarmigan]

Florida might just get a double whammy.

I hope not.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is looking at the UKMET unfortunately a possible analog could be Jeanne 2004 but I certainly hope that doesn't happen

[1900hurricane]

Jose managed to wander a little too close to Irma's outflow now that Irma has considerably slowed its westward progression.

[supercane4867]

Jose looked really good this morning but quickly getting shredded by his big sister's outflow.

[YoshiMike]

Hopefully he looses his cool and dies down before he does anything major to anyone

[hurricaneCW]

The future of Jose is very uncertain but after billions in damage and lives lost from Harvey and Irma, the last thing we need is another threat.

[BYG Jacob]

Jose looked really good this morning but quickly getting shredded by his big sister's outflow.

Irma's outflow is ridiculous.

[BYG Jacob]

Hopefully he looses his cool and dies down before he does anything major to anyone

Irma is moving away from him and he has water warm enough to support him, he should make it until conditions become more favorable.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/906977988390121473



Brian L Kahn ✔ @blkahn
This satellite image of #Jose is *bonkers.* You can see white caps on waves thru the eye! https://www.flickr.com/photos/150411108 ... 328732093/ … Amazing work by @anttilip
4:29 PM - Sep 10, 2017

[Ken711]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 68.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue overnight, followed by a reduction in forward speed and a
turn toward the north on Monday. Jose is then forecast to move
slowly toward the east and southeast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).

[1900hurricane]

Jose is not looking too good right now. SATCON values have dropped way off.

[jdjaguar]

Jose is not looking too good right now. SATCON values have dropped way off.

Good!!

[1900hurricane]

NHC went 90 kt for 06Z, but I wouldn't be surprised if actual intensity is a little lower than that. SAB's DT was 4.5 (77 kt) at 0545Z and SATCON dropped to 78 kt for its most recent estimate at 0119Z, so I could see Jose as low as 75-80 kt at the moment.

[BYG Jacob]

Jose having a crazy intense convection blow up right now on sat.

[Buck]

Some very high cloud tops. Still fighting sheer from Irma, but fighting hard...

[BYG Jacob]

Some very high cloud tops. Still fighting sheer from Irma, but fighting hard...

Irma is clearing out, and then he should be okay.

By the way, what satellite is that from and how far back is their historical data? If you don't mind me asking.

[Buck]

Some very high cloud tops. Still fighting sheer from Irma, but fighting hard...

Irma is clearing out, and then he should be okay.

By the way, what satellite is that from and how far back is their historical data? If you don't mind me asking.

That is a NOAA GOES Floater. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html