HDGator wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:HDGator wrote:
I believe it's just one more symptom of the communication problem that NHC and NWS has with the general public. One of their worst enemies is the forecast track line. Everyone pays attention to the line as a line. When it's forecast to be 100 miles away, I'm obviously safe. Whenever tv mets get on the air their first words are "We have a new forecast track and it's shifted...".
I bet if you had a conversation with the 98% of the population in central Florida that are surprised tonight they would say "But I thought the hurricane was staying in the GOM". For some reason, the fact that they've been under a hurricane warning and told to expect potential hurricane conditions was completely ignored.
I guarantee this communication problem will be a prime topic of conversation when these winds die down. NHC and NWS will defend their statements as perfectly clear while a surprised and damaged population will scream for their heads. The only saving grace will be that it will be months before they get power back to write an email to their legislator and they'll be pissed with the power company (FPL, Duke, etc.) more than the weather forecasters and tv mets.
No one in the state should have been surprised. Except for the western Panhandle, most of the state has been under a hurricane warning. Only a few counties (mainly around Pensacola) have not been in any tropical headlines.
Yes, I agree and that is my point. The message is clear to everyone that can read and understand what a hurricane warning means. But the average Joe just doesn't get it. How many people do you think took down or never put up their shutters on the east coast of Florida and have endured 80-90mph gusts all afternoon? As soon as the line shifted from the east coast to the west coast, the all clear was sounded for the east coast. Anyone who took a glance at this beast's wind field still expected a very damaging storm on the east coast. But the average Joe never got the message.
All valid points but missing the key realistic thing about public....
They have to blame someone other than themselves.
In areas that did not get storm surge as expected, they will blame the NHC for creating chaos for nothing, in areas getting hammered that were not "on the line" NHC will get blamed. No matter how detailed and accurate the NHC is they will get blamed somehow because the general public does not want to be responsible for themselves.
Is Irma pulling a Fay? Is that deep convection trying to wrap around the center lifting north from the Everglades region? Is Irma trying to strengthen?
