ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormsurf]

We evacuated from east Boca to St. Aug. What does anyone think the sustained winds for St. Aug/North Fla will be tonight?
Thanks!

[JarrodB]

We evacuated from east Boca to St. Aug. What does anyone think the sustained winds for St. Aug/North Fla will be tonight?
Thanks!

Currently we are at 51mph with gusts to 61mph in St Augustine. We could get close to hurricane over night if Irma goes a little more east in my amatuer opinion.

[rickybobby]

Still nothing here. I could have had a picnic today. Hopefully it doesn't get bad as they predicted.

[stormreader]

"The Great Florida Hurricane".... In the old days before official names for storms, they were sometimes given unique names to fit the impact. Even without perhaps the most extreme wind intensities, I think Irma could justifiably be called "The Great Florida Hurricane". Very unique storm in terms of size and track to be able to give hurricane force winds to both coasts and to the entire Fl peninsula. Maybe Donna did this. But it's pretty unusual.

[Cee22]

People here in Orlando are freaking out, they didn't think the winds were going to be this bad. I told as many people as possible not to believe many of the TV stations that were downplaying this storm early this morning, I told them 80-100 mph wind gusts possible and they thought I was crazy.

Same. we are in Melbourne and everyone was like “we don’t even need to board up our windows!” “We’re getting tropical storm winds!” BOOM.

If you prepare, the worst that could happen is you’re prepared. If you don’t prepare, then....

[NDG]

Sorry guys who want something worse- but it's not gonna happen. This storm is dying. And that's good.

Nobody wants it worst than what it is right now, some of us are having it worst than what it was forecasted because Irma has moved North all day long, that is the discussion that we are having. Irma by no means is dying out that quickly either, a hurricane that still has 942 mb pressure right now is nothing to downplay.

9:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 10
Location: 27.1°N 81.8°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[linnie]

Here in sarasota spotty cell service and no power and i can't radar to load. can anyone post a screen shot of a current rada. trying to see where the center is in relationship to me. also is it still moving north? i keep reading that the nhc says it will turn more west any idea of when? thanks in advance

[NDG]

We evacuated from east Boca to St. Aug. What does anyone think the sustained winds for St. Aug/North Fla will be tonight?
Thanks!

Last time I saw the models they were showing 80-90 mph wind gusts in NE coastal FL later tonight if not tomorrow morning.

[abajan]

We evacuated from east Boca to St. Aug. What does anyone think the sustained winds for St. Aug/North Fla will be tonight?
Thanks!

Please see my post above. Google tells me St Augustine has four zip codes (32080, 32084, 32085, 32095). Find out which yours is, enter it into the box and read the info at the Hazardous Weather Conditions links.

[JarrodB]

Still nothing here. I could have had a picnic today. Hopefully it doesn't get bad as they predicted.

She is not dying softly or quietly by any means. I am over 200miles from the center and getting storm force winds.

The pressure is too low for her to die quickly. Given the size, a large portion of the state will be experiencing strong tropical storm to hurricane conditions until tomorrow. Let's not forget the rain, flooding is a major concern.

[ava_ati]

I think it is pretty dang bad in St. Augustine. This expansive wind field is killer and I tried to tell all my friends they were in for a surprise tonight and they all tried to tell me it won't be that bad and we'll barely get any rain bands. Here I am with the dogs and family in a closet under the stairs. Still have power but we've gotten some 60+ gusts and I'm west of 95. Stay safe everyone!

[NDG]

Here in sarasota spotty cell service and no power and i can't radar to load. can anyone post a screen shot of a current rada. trying to see where the center is in relationship to me. also is it still moving north? i keep reading that the nhc says it will turn more west any idea of when? thanks in advance

[stormreader]

Sorry guys who want something worse- but it's not gonna happen. This storm is dying. And that's good.

Nobody wants it worst than what it is right now, some of us are having it worst than what it was forecasted because Irma has moved North all day long, that is the discussion that we are having. Irma by no means is dying out that quickly either, a hurricane that still has 942 mb pressure right now is nothing to downplay.

9:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 10
Location: 27.1°N 81.8°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Yes. It's not all about the extreme intensity at point of impact. Every storm is different. This big storm is probably giving hurricane force winds to more people and for a longer amount of time than perhaps any storm in history. Superstorm Sandy is in that category as a hybrid storm. But for a pure hurricane impacting population and geographical area this will go down in the all time records. Thus "The Great Florida Hurricane".

[Hurricaneman]

Here near the Polk/lake county line and we're browning out, won't have electricity for long

[jdjaguar]

We evacuated from east Boca to St. Aug. What does anyone think the sustained winds for St. Aug/North Fla will be tonight?
Thanks!

Last time I saw the models they were showing 80-90 mph wind gusts in NE coastal FL later tonight if not tomorrow morning.

NHC website has peak gusts in the low 60s for the next 3 hours.. then Dropping back into the 50s until mid morning at my locale

[Michele B]

Here in sarasota spotty cell service and no power and i can't radar to load. can anyone post a screen shot of a current rada. trying to see where the center is in relationship to me. also is it still moving north? i keep reading that the nhc says it will turn more west any idea of when? thanks in advance

Venice, Sarasota,
The eye is almost due east of you (slightly south of due east, over Arcadia). Irma's forward movement toward the north means you will not get the eye.

That said, you have several more hours of heavy bands, steady, flowing into your area. Winds moving east to west.

When that shifts to more southerly, the worst will be over for you

[NDG]

Tom Terry from WFTV here in Orlando is going against the official NHC, he realizes that Irma is still moving almost due north so he is saying that at least Lake County & Polk County will see Cat 2 force winds tonight. Good for him, it takes guts to call it like it is.

[NDG]

We evacuated from east Boca to St. Aug. What does anyone think the sustained winds for St. Aug/North Fla will be tonight?
Thanks!

Last time I saw the models they were showing 80-90 mph wind gusts in NE coastal FL later tonight if not tomorrow morning.

NHC website has peak gusts in the low 60s for the next 3 hours.. then Dropping back into the 50s until mid morning at my locale

So far the models have been right.

[northjaxpro]

Will continue. Central to N Fl could be primed for tornadoes later tonight and in the pre dawn hours as the very low pressure hurricane slowly winds down. Interaction with the trough area will probably aid tornado development. Be on alert, because on occasion hurricanes can have serious type tornados. This storm will soon be broken into long and dangerously brutal squall lines filled with twisting storms.

We've already had numerous tornado warnings already issued by the NWS office in Jax from these rain bands moving on shore from the Atlantic especially across St. Johns and Flagler Counties in NE FL. I am not sure that any of these touched down.

Hi northjaxpro, enjoy your posts since they are 1) level headed and always seem rooted in good science and 2) somewhat applicable to Savannah...

Very interested in your thoughts...If Irma were to maintain it's northerly track...would NE Florida / SE Georgia benefit more from a weaker storm due to more time over land, or would we suffer more from a closer one?

As it stands now Savannah has been very calm...a few sprinkles, a couple of stiff breezes...

Hi GT Storm!! Great hearing from you and thanks for your kind words!! If Irma follows the UKMET model track, which is east of the NHC projected track, Savannah will see an increase in some rain and wind. The NHC track turnsa weakened Irma N/NW over North Central Florida, then up into western GA into Alabama. The NHC projected track, if it verifies, would indeed not give much weather to the Savannah area because Irma would be moving away from them.

[Michele B]

We've already had numerous tornado warnings already issued by the NWS office in Jax from these rain bands moving on shore from the Atlantic especially across St. Johns and Flagler Counties in NE FL. I am not sure that any of these touched down.

Hi northjaxpro, enjoy your posts since they are 1) level headed and always seem rooted in good science and 2) somewhat applicable to Savannah...

Very interested in your thoughts...If Irma were to maintain it's northerly track...would NE Florida / SE Georgia benefit more from a weaker storm due to more time over land, or would we suffer more from a closer one?

As it stands now Savannah has been very calm...a few sprinkles, a couple of stiff breezes...

If Irma follows the UKMET model track, which is east of the NHC projected track, Savannah will see an increase in some rain and wind. The NHC track turns Irma N/NW over North Central Florida, then up into western GA into Alabama. The NHC projected track, if it verifies, would indeed not give much weather to the Savannah area because Irma would be moving away from them.

Sorry if this repeats. I posted it and it went away!

If Irma tracks N/NW out of the state, the Panhandle will feel her effects, too. That means every county in FL will have been "touched" by Irma.

Impressive!