ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HenkL]

AF307 3111A IRMA HDOB 18 20170910
212800 2611N 08155W 6975 02685 9467 +159 +152 336067 072 070 004 00
212830 2612N 08156W 6972 02694 9481 +155 +153 338067 069 071 015 00
212900 2613N 08157W 6968 02707 9496 +153 +153 345062 067 071 010 00
212930 2614N 08157W 6973 02715 9520 +153 +153 353063 064 071 010 00
213000 2615N 08158W 6965 02740 9548 +150 +150 001058 063 072 006 00
213030 2616N 08159W 6971 02744 9555 +145 //// 010055 063 068 009 05
213100 2617N 08200W 6972 02762 9572 +151 +151 020057 060 064 015 03
213130 2619N 08201W 6968 02775 9577 +150 +150 020058 059 066 009 00
213200 2620N 08202W 6973 02786 9587 +147 +147 023063 064 065 009 03
213230 2621N 08203W 6969 02800 9612 +142 //// 032060 062 061 005 01
213300 2622N 08204W 6971 02811 9621 +142 +142 038059 061 055 008 00
213330 2624N 08205W 6973 02816 9643 +139 //// 042053 055 053 006 01
213400 2625N 08206W 6974 02825 9644 +136 //// 043052 052 078 005 05
213430 2626N 08207W 6969 02821 //// +134 //// 044055 056 125 006 05
213500 2628N 08208W 6973 02815 //// +129 //// 045053 054 /// /// 05
213530 2629N 08209W 6971 02842 //// +122 //// 049050 051 /// /// 05
213600 2631N 08210W 6967 02847 //// +111 //// 055048 050 070 003 01
213630 2631N 08210W 6967 02847 //// +111 //// 056046 047 090 020 01
213700 2633N 08212W 6970 02869 9720 +134 +134 057046 046 093 015 00
213730 2635N 08214W 6965 02883 9731 +135 +135 064047 048 070 010 00

[Otown_Wx]

Might be an I-75 hurricane for Florida... Not good news for east coast of Central Florida.

Tom Terry just said that. That storm is moving due north ATM and if it don't start making a more west of north turn it will miss forecast point and come alot closer to Orlando

[d3v123]

Also - is the storm still going to make that north west turn? Would make a big difference to my location and I see it still says due north

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still here and have power... eye aiming right for my location. Should be interesting.

[AJC3]

142 mph gust seems quite high for a minimal cat 3 hurricane though. And that also assumes the stronger winds are over the Everglades.

Dry air entrainment in weakening hurricanes is subsident. It actually makes the convective downdrafts stronger. We've seen these many many times in Florida.

[syfr]

Just lost the Naples cam....

[PandaCitrus]

Aside from out to sea, this is probably the best case scenario other than it landfalling a little further south in the everglades.

It's going to quickly wind down in winds navigating the state rather than being on the cost creating storm surge havoc up the west coat in vulnerable areas.

Florida really, really, really got lucky. 4 days ago we were looking at a cat 5 185mph hurricane landfalling south of downtown miami and moving up to lake Okeechobee and orlando and Jacksonville. The amount of damage would have been unfathomable.

[NDG]

142 mph gust seems quite high for a minimal cat 3 hurricane though. And that also assumes the stronger winds are over the Everglades.

Dry air entrainment in weakening hurricanes is subsident. It actually makes the convective downdrafts stronger. We've seen these many many times in Florida.

Hi AJC3, do you those wind gusts the Euro and GFS forecast for the Orlando area of 80-100 mph could come to fruition? I am thinking it might be possible with the dry air coming in behind which could cause the downdrafts to carry those 125-150 mph winds at H85 down to the surface.

[mspencer]

Brett Adair showing what appears to be storm surge flooding in Naples
https://livestormchasing.com/map

[Craters]

Not funny. Un-doctored satellite image.



source: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-10

Tilt your head to the left while you're looking at this and it looks like an ewok from hell.

[BYG Jacob]

I love this country

 https://twitter.com/PaigeANjax/status/906984985927798784

[SkeetoBite]

Just lost the Naples cam....

Still there, winds shifted too

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/2TRywcaNHMV

[HenkL]

AF307 3111A IRMA HDOB 19 20170910
213800 2636N 08215W 6973 02883 9741 +134 +134 067046 048 065 015 00
213830 2638N 08216W 6975 02886 9742 +136 +136 065051 053 053 013 00
213900 2639N 08217W 6970 02898 9733 +137 //// 066050 052 061 006 01
213930 2641N 08218W 6973 02900 9740 +138 +138 067049 051 061 008 00
214000 2642N 08219W 6967 02913 9749 +138 +138 076050 051 061 008 00
214030 2644N 08220W 6967 02911 9757 +138 +138 082056 060 056 016 03
214100 2646N 08221W 6966 02919 9775 +134 +134 079068 076 059 024 00
214130 2647N 08222W 6975 02912 9790 +131 +131 071076 081 059 024 03
214200 2649N 08223W 6958 02940 9789 +125 +125 068068 071 057 022 03
214230 2650N 08225W 6972 02931 9772 +128 +125 071066 068 061 013 00
214300 2652N 08226W 6969 02947 9794 +120 //// 071066 068 057 007 05
214330 2653N 08227W 6973 02941 9811 +120 //// 068071 073 058 007 05
214400 2655N 08228W 6972 02947 9806 +128 //// 068066 070 055 009 01
214430 2656N 08229W 6972 02952 9803 +129 +129 069062 065 057 006 00
214500 2658N 08230W 6971 02960 9808 +127 //// 069063 065 055 006 01
214530 2659N 08232W 6970 02962 9814 +118 //// 076069 073 057 004 01
214600 2701N 08233W 6978 02962 9825 +116 //// 075076 078 056 004 01
214630 2702N 08234W 6970 02972 9837 +112 //// 074074 076 055 003 01
214700 2704N 08235W 6969 02977 9841 +114 //// 076074 076 055 004 01
214730 2705N 08237W 6973 02979 9842 +125 //// 074070 073 055 006 01

(NNW along the coast, direction towards Sarasota)

[Rail Dawg]

Reporting live from Naples.

Anyone see my 3-legged dog on CNN?

Too funny.

The eye was beautiful.

Lasted about 45 minutes but now the wind is picking up from the west.

CNN said 140mph recorded so we should see almost that again.

And the surge.

I'll report live let you know what's going on.

[AJC3]

142 mph gust seems quite high for a minimal cat 3 hurricane though. And that also assumes the stronger winds are over the Everglades.

Dry air entrainment in weakening hurricanes is subsident. It actually makes the convective downdrafts stronger. We've seen these many many times in Florida.

Hi AJC3, do you those wind gusts the Euro and GFS forecast for the Orlando area of 80-100 mph could come to fruition? I am thinking it might be possible with the dry air coming in behind which could cause the downdrafts to carry those 125-150 mph winds at H85 down to the surface.

80-100 MPH? Yes! Especially, the longer short term motion (355-360 according to radar) keeps up.

[NWgeorgiastormdawg]

Excellent TV coverage on live YouTube from NBC2 and ABC7 who joined together. Showed storm surge coming onto 5th avenue in Naples. Just search for NBC2 on youtube

[Bocadude85]

We are getting pounded with hurricane force gusts, have been for hours now. Lots of tree damage and no power. Everyone stay safe.

[MacTavish]

Just lost the Naples cam....

Its back up. Ive been watching it since before the eyewall arrived. amazing footage.

[stormreader]

Aside from out to sea, this is probably the best case scenario other than it landfalling a little further south in the everglades.

It's going to quickly wind down in winds navigating the state rather than being on the cost creating storm surge havoc up the west coat in vulnerable areas.

Florida really, really, really got lucky. 4 days ago we were looking at a cat 5 185mph hurricane landfalling south of downtown miami and moving up to lake Okeechobee and orlando and Jacksonville. The amount of damage would have been unfathomable.

Don't mean to be morbid, but I believe there is a significant tornado threat for central and north Fl tonight and tomorrow. Frictional effects, very low pressure readings, storm event still unfolding.

[SouthFLTropics]

We are getting pounded with hurricane force gusts, have been for hours now. Lots of tree damage and no power. Everyone stay safe.

Stay safe Boca...Business is picking up here in PSL as well.