ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HenkL]

Recon observations west and south of Naples:

URNT15 KNHC 102037
AF307 3111A IRMA HDOB 12 20170910
202800 2619N 08223W 6980 02889 //// +129 //// 034037 038 061 003 01
202830 2618N 08221W 6977 02888 //// +128 //// 030038 039 061 002 05
202900 2617N 08220W 6971 02890 9722 +131 //// 032041 043 064 004 01
202930 2616N 08218W 6969 02889 9738 +137 +137 034042 044 061 008 00
203000 2615N 08216W 6969 02878 9728 +128 //// 034046 048 058 005 01
203030 2615N 08214W 6975 02864 //// +125 //// 033048 049 057 005 01
203100 2614N 08213W 6969 02862 //// +130 //// 028048 050 055 002 05
203130 2613N 08211W 6975 02847 //// +128 //// 030050 052 056 004 01
203200 2612N 08209W 6971 02844 //// +122 //// 028053 054 056 004 01
203230 2611N 08208W 6971 02835 9655 +128 //// 030055 056 057 006 01
203300 2610N 08206W 6963 02830 9651 +137 //// 024055 056 057 006 01
203330 2609N 08204W 6966 02815 9636 +133 //// 019057 058 061 006 01
203400 2608N 08203W 6973 02785 9606 +136 //// 020063 066 063 008 01
203430 2608N 08201W 6964 02773 9581 +147 +147 020067 069 066 009 00
203500 2607N 08159W 6966 02746 9560 +149 +149 016060 066 069 012 00
203530 2606N 08157W 6987 02682 9528 +149 //// 005057 062 075 012 01
203600 2606N 08155W 6957 02689 9476 +146 //// 355060 063 079 010 01
203630 2606N 08153W 6965 02655 9417 +165 +159 355057 063 080 010 00
203700 2606N 08151W 6982 02607 9378 +180 +153 000046 051 070 007 00
203730 2606N 08149W 6949 02637 9362 +180 +154 004021 044 066 003 03

AF307 3111A IRMA HDOB 13 20170910
203800 2606N 08147W 6980 02578 9350 +167 +159 193001 010 068 003 05
203830 2606N 08145W 6973 02583 9349 +163 +162 149004 006 /// /// 05
203900 2604N 08144W 6968 02582 //// +149 //// 194005 007 /// /// 05
203930 2603N 08144W 6967 02578 //// +136 //// 258010 016 /// /// 05
204000 2601N 08144W 6957 02611 //// +163 //// 280024 027 /// /// 05
204030 2559N 08144W 6975 02596 9360 +179 +163 280037 041 /// /// 03
204100 2557N 08144W 6964 02634 9377 +177 +159 272058 064 /// /// 03
204130 2555N 08144W 6984 02646 9428 +165 +156 269074 079 069 000 03
204200 2554N 08144W 6948 02727 9464 +170 +138 275083 086 069 000 03
204230 2552N 08144W 6977 02713 9494 +168 +138 269089 091 067 000 00
204300 2550N 08144W 6981 02737 9532 +157 +139 261092 093 065 001 00
204330 2549N 08144W 6963 02779 9558 +141 +139 256087 090 064 002 01
204400 2547N 08144W 6977 02777 9591 +137 +134 254085 086 062 001 01
204430 2546N 08144W 6970 02800 9606 +140 +126 252084 086 060 001 00
204500 2544N 08144W 6967 02818 9626 +132 +128 250083 085 055 001 00
204530 2543N 08144W 6970 02827 //// +126 //// 248078 081 054 000 01
204600 2541N 08143W 6967 02839 //// +127 //// 243077 077 052 001 01
204630 2540N 08143W 6974 02839 //// +125 //// 245077 079 048 001 01
204700 2538N 08143W 6978 02846 //// +124 //// 245075 076 046 001 05
204730 2537N 08143W 6963 02869 //// +120 //// 248073 075 042 002 01

[stormreader]

And as stated by others above, there were probably higher gusts just to the east of Naples. In the center of the NE quadrant.

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 102056
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 10/20:38:00Z
B. 26 deg 06 min N
081 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2546 m
D. 80 kt
E. 270 deg 5 nm
F. 019 deg 69 kt
G. 277 deg 12 nm
H. 939 mb
I. 15 C / 3039 m
J. 18 C / 3028 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 3111A IRMA OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 93 KT 168 / 16 NM 20:43:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 045 / 9 KT

[stormreader]

And as stated by others above, there were probably higher gusts just to the east of Naples. In the center of the NE quadrant.

So I'm suspecting that absolute top level winds moved in just south of Marco Island, and continued just east of Naples.

[skillz]

Might be an I-75 hurricane for Florida... Not good news for east coast of Central Florida.

[NDG]

Naples is getting absolutely roasted, and that's from the weaker (west) eyewall...

Naples is in the northern eyewall. Officially, Irma is listed as a Cat 3 at landfall, but I haven't seen any evidence of that status in the recent recon mission. Could well be a Cat 2. That wind on TWC looked to be Cat 1.

On the previous Recon, they did not sampled the NE quadrant before they headed back to Biloxi, they came in through the SW quadrant measured the eye's pressure and went out the NW quadrant, by that time convection was intensifying in the NE quadrant.

Edit to add: The SW quadrant had weakened considerable ever since making landfall in the Keys.

[stormreader]

Naples still in eye, last I checked. There waiting for the oncoming surge there now, as the winds come off the gulf with the passage of the eye.

[HenkL]

AF307 3111A IRMA HDOB 14 20170910
204800 2535N 08143W 6976 02866 //// +121 //// 247070 072 042 001 01
204830 2534N 08143W 6970 02879 //// +120 //// 249068 071 040 001 05
204900 2532N 08143W 6970 02883 //// +120 //// 248068 069 039 001 01
204930 2531N 08143W 6967 02894 //// +121 //// 252069 071 039 001 05
205000 2529N 08143W 6974 02888 //// +125 //// 253073 075 038 002 01
205030 2528N 08143W 6971 02898 //// +125 //// 253077 077 040 001 01
205100 2526N 08143W 6969 02910 //// +125 //// 252075 076 041 001 01
205130 2525N 08143W 6966 02912 //// +127 //// 254077 079 041 000 01
205200 2523N 08143W 6974 02911 //// +130 //// 255078 080 041 001 05
205230 2521N 08143W 6970 02918 9742 +131 +128 256080 080 039 001 01
205300 2520N 08142W 6970 02922 9745 +132 +127 254080 080 039 002 03
205330 2518N 08142W 6975 02921 9750 +129 +125 252078 080 041 000 01
205400 2517N 08142W 6968 02933 //// +121 //// 251077 077 041 000 05
205430 2515N 08142W 6974 02933 //// +118 //// 252074 077 041 000 01
205500 2514N 08142W 6970 02939 //// +117 //// 254074 075 043 001 01
205530 2514N 08142W 6970 02939 //// +114 //// 258081 088 046 000 01
205600 2511N 08142W 6968 02951 //// +111 //// 258088 090 046 000 01
205630 2509N 08142W 6978 02944 9800 +118 +096 256090 092 046 000 00
205700 2508N 08142W 6962 02974 9816 +110 +098 257090 090 046 000 03
205730 2507N 08140W 6971 02968 9814 +116 +100 251091 092 /// /// 03

[bob rulz]

There's several trees down in the stream from the Naples webcam. That post is absurd.

[brghteys1216]

Looks like she's gonna take the eastern side of the cone.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Naples still in eye, last I checked. There waiting for the oncoming surge there now, as the winds come off the gulf with the passage of the eye.

Can someone please keep posting that surge graph, or give me a link?

[skillz]

The GFS seems to have been spot on....

[katheria]

wish I knew the locatiopn of that cam

Highway 41 and mooring line drive

[forecasterjack]

Just your average stream of a dozen+ hook echoes streaming into a single county in FL (Brevard) https://weather.us/radar-us/brevard/reflectivity/KMLB.html#play YIKES!

[Shell Mound]

Okay, maybe my perception is based on my reminiscence of the damage following both eyewall passages in Wilma, whereas Naples has yet to experience the rear or southern quadrant, which could explain the relatively minor damage compared to Wilma's aftermath, which featured not just a few shallow-rooted trees uprooted, but also larger trees and branches snapped, roofing tiles blown off at many sites, and similarly intense scenes on a widespread scale. I do not see that yet in the footage. I do see some trees uprooted, but not many, and surrounding royal palms and other trees show very little, if any, foliage damage. And I never said the storm surge isn't dangerous. I was only referring to the wind aspect.

Anyway, let's wait to hold this discussion until well after the damage has been cleaned up.

[Stangfriik]

Tornado sirens going off constantly in winter springs. Daughter and her mother are in an apartment there but ok. Damage already reported from tornado

[HenkL]

AF307 3111A IRMA HDOB 15 20170910
205800 2508N 08138W 6967 02972 9811 +119 +103 250088 091 /// /// 03
205830 2510N 08138W 6978 02950 9802 +120 +102 251087 088 /// /// 03
205900 2512N 08137W 6963 02957 9789 +121 +109 251084 087 043 001 03
205930 2514N 08136W 6976 02936 //// +117 //// 247082 084 046 000 01
210000 2515N 08134W 6972 02936 //// +121 //// 243074 079 047 000 01
210030 2517N 08133W 6970 02934 9766 +126 +122 240075 076 046 001 00
210100 2519N 08131W 6977 02926 //// +121 //// 238079 080 044 001 05
210130 2520N 08129W 6971 02936 //// +120 //// 240082 083 041 001 05
210200 2519N 08126W 6975 02933 //// +124 //// 240081 081 041 000 01
210230 2518N 08124W 6967 02947 //// +125 //// 241082 083 044 000 05
210300 2517N 08122W 6971 02950 9782 +127 +124 242082 083 043 000 05
210330 2517N 08120W 6964 02959 9785 +127 +122 240085 086 /// /// 03
210400 2517N 08118W 6971 02954 9788 +123 //// 236086 087 046 000 01
210430 2516N 08115W 6970 02960 //// +121 //// 236087 087 047 000 05
210500 2516N 08113W 6974 02962 //// +121 //// 234086 088 046 001 05
210530 2517N 08110W 6969 02970 //// +120 //// 232083 085 /// /// 05
210600 2519N 08111W 6971 02959 //// +123 //// 234081 082 046 001 05
210630 2520N 08112W 6972 02955 //// +124 //// 234078 080 050 000 01
210700 2522N 08113W 6970 02951 9781 +128 +124 233076 077 049 000 00
210730 2523N 08114W 6970 02947 9777 +128 +125 232076 077 047 000 00

(west of Shark River Island)

[cjrciadt]

Mild gusts starting here

[wx247]

I know a lot of attention is on Florida right now, but just got this tweet from the US Virgin Islands and the earlier damage caused by Irma. Wow.

 https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/906674272701173761

[KWT]

Naples is getting absolutely roasted, and that's from the weaker (west) eyewall...

Naples is in the northern eyewall. Officially, Irma is listed as a Cat 3 at landfall, but I haven't seen any evidence of that status in the recent recon mission. Could well be a Cat 2. That wind on TWC looked to be Cat 1.

Yeah, my experience (based on alot of winter storms in the UK that can pump out 80-100mph gusts at times) and it was IMO mainly around the 90mph mark, there was a couple of minutes where the wind probably went to 100-105mph but as you say it was probably cat-1 winds on TWC by in large.