ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

It's stating to go down hill here with the combination of the Nor' Easter and Irma's rainbands coming up from the south. And we had a tornado warning around Cresent Beach near the St. John's- Flagler county line south of St. Augustine.

Very odd to me, it sounds like we are getting worse conditions here than they are in Orlando at this point in time, from the reports I've seen here.

Yeah, I'm not down playing anything. Just a heavy drizzle. No wind, no heavy rain.

Over here is Avalon Park , SE Orlando and it just got crazy...rain getting harder and harder every few minutes and then just had a super cell come through

[WeatherGuesser]

Been gone all morning .... what happened in the Keys?

[johngaltfla]

Eyewall looking good on radar and sadly, lookin stronger. I don't know how much longer I'll have power/internet as we're getting 45-60 mph gusts now and I will be saving my phone power for the evening and overnight.

[Ptarmigan]

Irma is still a very dangerous hurricane, but Florida better thank their lucky stars she veered into Cuba first, otherwise they would be staring at a strengthening cat 5.

A major tropical cyclone as large as Irma is terrible period. Cat 4 or Cat 5 it still equally destructive.

Exactly. A large hurricane is dangerous because they produce higher storm surge. Tampa Bay Area is at most risk.

[KBBOCA]

Was afraid of pix like this showing up. Lord have mercy. Folks walking in Tampa Bay...

 https://twitter.com/codonnell_Times/status/906935564208889856




Chris O'Donnell‏ @codonnell_Times

People calling this a once-in-a-lifetime chance to walk out from Bayshore Blvd. #TBTIrma

[stormreader]

Mark Sudduth‏Verified account @hurricanetrack

Brief video discussion featuring our longtime friend and colleague Mike Watkins from Oakland Park Florida...

https://youtu.be/hPHZskPNFyE

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/906927313442439168

He did mention that the western eyewall structure seems to have rebuilt itself in later frames. Definitely no weakening at this time, to say the least.

[Steve]

Post fail.

[NDG]

12z Euro shifted a little to the east.

[BYG Jacob]

Irma is still a very dangerous hurricane, but Florida better thank their lucky stars she veered into Cuba first, otherwise they would be staring at a strengthening cat 5.

A major tropical cyclone as large as Irma is terrible period. Cat 4 or Cat 5 it still equally destructive.

Exactly. A large hurricane is dangerous because they produce higher storm surge.

Again, I acknowledged Irma is a very dangerous hurricane, my point is she would be much more dangerous if she hadn't hit Cuba.

[stormreader]

Eyewall looking good on radar and sadly, lookin stronger. I don't know how much longer I'll have power/internet as we're getting 45-60 mph gusts now and I will be saving my phone power for the evening and overnight.

Its been my impression for a couple of hours now that visually the storm looks stronger than when it went through the keys.

[KBBOCA]

Brian Entin‏Verified account @BrianEntin 3m3 minutes ago

3/4 of Miami-Dade county is without power. @wsvn #HurrcaneIrma

[PTPatrick]

So I'm starting to think surges north of Naples will almost definately underperform. This is just not an optimal angle to pile up and bring in surge above there. Sure the water will come back around and be higher than where it started but I have trouble seeing the epic surge for points north verifying. Which is a good thing. Only time will tell. If you look at donna there was also surge in Naples and Marco but I can't find reports of epic surge north of there. I should say tho, it doesn't take huge surge to do damage in many of these areas as they have not really been built up to mitigate it. Much of the peninsula below the big bend just really takes a perfect storm to create humongous surge because of coastal topography and the typical angle of approach. Back home in Mississippi and really across the northern gulf , the big surges are never preceded by water pushing out. It just comes in, and then in some more and then in some more and then boom it comes in all at once.

[KBBOCA]

NWS Miami‏Verified account @NWSMiami 5m5 minutes ago

1:56 PM: Destructive winds of 115+ mph moving into #MarcoIsland now and to #Naples shortly. Storm surge to abuptly come! Shelter in place.

[tallywx]

12z Euro shifted a little to the east.

By 10 miles or so through Cedar Key. Then 5-10 miles west thereafter. Actually passes the center directly over Tallahassee now at T+30h. Surprised to see that.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon I have limited access getting hamered good in wesstchester. Any reorganization out of key largo have a house there on a canal

[KBBOCA]

NWS Miami‏Verified account @NWSMiami 2m2 minutes ago

***Fast-moving tornado just reported at Fort Lauderdale International Airport moving NW crossing I-595!** #Irma

[jdjaguar]

Very similar to pre-tsunami. I didn't realize waters receded that much due to hurricanes.
Prayers for all

They most often don't. This is offshore flow ahead of the storm on west and SW facing bays, inlets and rivers. It would have been the opposite coming up along the east coast of Florida where the flow north of the storm would have been out of the east and an onshore flow. Once the storm passes, flow around the backside of the storm out of the SW puts the water back in.

We have been watching numerous tv broadcast channels out of Miami and SW Florida. Worst reports I've heard was that some of the keys were overwashed. Most of the local news reports are showing downed trees and waterless bays and canals. There was some discussion of water in Miami Beach as well. Watch out for the eyewall approaching the coast. Looks like some of the most prolonged weather since last night has been over in Ft Lauderdale on the east coast - nothing terrible reported there but nonstop.

That makes sense. thanks for the explanation.

[Steve]

Aric,

You looking for on the ground people's livestreams or TV stations? I haven't found much good on the private accounts but there is a list of active chasers 2 or 3 pages back someone posted off the storm chasers network.

TV:

WPTV WPB
https://youtu.be/aXDKzccIOa0

ABC 7 out of Ft. Meyers
https://youtu.be/dV2z7tGeVoI

Fox 4 Naples/Ft Meyers
https://youtu.be/LW0SQviKXoQ

There are many others.

[Janie2006]

They call it the "opportunity of a lifetime". I call it the opportunity for an early trip to the afterlife. Evidently they aren't taking this seriously.

[johngaltfla]

12z Euro shifted a little to the east.

It had GFS envy.