ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Eye has closed off


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 13:41:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°45'N 81°31'W (24.75N 81.5167W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 105kts (~ 120.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (67°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 154° at 118kts (From the SSE at ~ 135.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 933mb (27.55 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 121kts (~ 139.2mph) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) from the flight level center at 12:09:00Z

[SFLcane]

Folks it's tracked east of NHC path Dade and Broward experiencing 100mph...

[dukeblue219]

Dropsonde (transmitted after that vortex msg) hit the surface at 148mph folks...

[tolakram]

Guys I'm really scared. How sure are we that Irma may landfall south of Tampa? If we get surge my house is near sea level on Tampa Bay and I will lose everything. Someone please reassure me. Thank you in advance.

Are you in an evacuation zone?

He reported instead of replied:

Reported by Tampa Bay Hurricane « Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:02 am

I live in zone A, my street is 2 feet above sea level but the first floor of my house is elevated at 10 feet above sea level.

[AutoPenalti]

It's tracking east...

[ConvergenceZone]

Guys I'm really scared. How sure are we that Irma may landfall south of Tampa? If we get surge my house is near sea level on Tampa Bay and I will lose everything. Someone please reassure me. Thank you in advance.

It totally depends on where the landfall is. To lessen storms urge, we obviously want a storm that has landfall East of Tampa. Just keep an eye on the forecast, and most importantly, keep yourself safe!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Guys I'm really scared. How sure are we that Irma may landfall south of Tampa? If we get surge my house is near sea level on Tampa Bay and I will lose everything. Someone please reassure me. Thank you in advance.

Are you in an evacuation zone?

He reported instead of replied:

Reported by Tampa Bay Hurricane « Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:02 am

I live in zone A, my street is 2 feet above sea level but the first floor of my house is elevated at 10 feet above sea level.

I'm so sorry I apologize my mind is a mess
Thank you to everyone who replied!

[tolakram]

Guys I'm really scared. How sure are we that Irma may landfall south of Tampa? If we get surge my house is near sea level on Tampa Bay and I will lose everything. Someone please reassure me. Thank you in advance.

We want to make sure you are safe, and you have a shelter to go to. I can't comment on the surge, really not sure where Irma is going to go at this point.

[forecasterjack]

GOES16 WV showing dry air beginning to wrap into the western part of the circulation. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/848-w-267-n/satellit-water-vapor-superhd-15min.html#play

[TheStormExpert]

Still have power here in Palm Beach Gardens as there was even just a Tornado Warning which expired six minutes ago.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Guys I'm really scared. How sure are we that Irma may landfall south of Tampa? If we get surge my house is near sea level on Tampa Bay and I will lose everything. Someone please reassure me. Thank you in advance.

We want to make sure you are safe, and you have a shelter to go to. I can't comment on the surge, really not sure where Irma is going to go at this point.

Thank you for replying! I understand. My family and I evacuated to north Tampa near the University of South Florida for shelter.

[cjrciadt]

Dropsonde (transmitted after that vortex msg) hit the surface at 148mph folks...

[jlauderdal]

Conditions in Kendall:

John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 2m2 minutes ago

Gusting to 70 MPH. Will get worse


Also per John Morales a few minutes ago: 100 MPH gusts likely now for Miami high-rise buildings.

John also said the hurricane is overperforming due to the jog east

What does that mean? How can a Cat 4 storm "OVERperform???"

we will have higher winds in se florida versus what was thought 12 hours ago due to the track, even though a little bit east every mile counts

[tolakram]

Are you in an evacuation zone?

He reported instead of replied:

Reported by Tampa Bay Hurricane « Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:02 am

I live in zone A, my street is 2 feet above sea level but the first floor of my house is elevated at 10 feet above sea level.

I'm so sorry I apologize my mind is a mess
Thank you to everyone who replied!

Can you come into chat? Might get more help or at least folks to talk too there?

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=111692

[KBBOCA]

Well I'm back to storm tracking sooner than expected. Serious mechanical issue with my car..., so I'm not going anywhere right now...

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 4m4 minutes ago

#Irma's landfall pressure of 929 mb is tied with Lake Okeechobee (1928) for 7th lowest landfall pressure at time of US landfall on record.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906880724896063489

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeesh... this storm is still quite serious

951mb (Surface) 105° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph)

[KBBOCA]

NWS Miami‏Verified account @NWSMiami 15m15 minutes ago

9:49 AM: Wind gust of 82 mph was recorded at the #Miami International Airport (ITWS wind sensor). #Irma



Ryan Phillips - NBC6‏Verified account @RyanNBC6 17m17 minutes ago

Per @NWSMiami

Surge Update for Miami-Dade:
**3-5 ft lower Biscayne Bay**
**2-3 ft Atlantic Coast**

[miamijaaz]

Reports of a construction crane collapsing into a high rise in downtown Miami. Fox News just showed pictures and are verifying.

This is certainly worse so far in Miami than I think most people thought when the track shifted west.

[Weatherboy1]

Here in Jupiter, we lost power around 5 am. Had a couple of tornado warnings but thankfully (at least here), no actual touchdowns that I know of. Irma sure looks like she is done moving west of north at all, and that landfall is much more likely near Naples or even a bit further southeast. Could be a bit worse here on the east side of FL as a result but we will see. Stay safe all!

[GCANE]

Its hitting that ridge of high CAPE air I mentioned yesterday.
Can't get a reading now due to cloud cover.
Also, looks like a Theta-E ridge may be building between Irma and Tampa this afternoon.
Keeping an eye on this.