ATL: IRMA - Models

[LAwxrgal]

I have a question to ask, maybe a pro met or someone more knowledgeable than myself can chime in...

I've always heard that strong storms tend to 'create their own environment.' And the UKMet picked up on a 'delay' in the storm's northward turn before all the other models. Is Irma pumping the ridge above her? Or is the ridge simply stronger than originally forecast?

I'm just wondering and watching this storm, befuddled. Still a lot more to learn about these.

[Agua]

On IR I detect a recent, but decided, move north.

[BIGWIND]

Agua, I too just noticed a due north move over about the last 30 minutes.
Maybe just a wobble, maybe not.

[jdjaguar]

Euro and UKMET has consistently been south and now west of the actual track. Putting too much weight on one model and making suggestions as such means big trouble for those who listen and should it decide to make the right turn and head somewhere further east outside of your expected route. This is why there is the cone of uncertainty, so comments like "King Euro" do not contribute to the model discussion.
Will it make a slow swing and head NW for Pensacola? Possible but not likely (less than 5% as of the 5PM predictions from NHC). The next 24 hours are fairly well locked in, and the next 48 sees little movement outside of the expected track, within 30-40 miles (which could mean it stays off shore to stay strong and hammer the state harder or come inland and weakening much quicker being less of a problem for the north end of the state.

I'm not posting this to argue because other than caneman, I'm the last one to use the term you said did not contribute to the discussion. However, it has been better than the NHC at every point (12, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) for Irma over time spanning since August 30th. NHC has done great, I'm not knocking them. But in this particular case, reliance on the Euro up to a point would not have been a bad decision. Obviously that is not the case for every storm or even the future of Irma. That's not my point. But if you followed EC as your sole source for Irma, you'd generally know closer than any other source what's going to be up for the next 5 days (for the past 11 days).

Steve is right. I despise the term King Euro. Not because it's not good but because you're always better to go with the blend. The Euro also has misses so that term can lull people into a false sense of security or panic. However, I give credit where credit is due. The Euro, UKMET and TVCN have been pretty spot on with this system. The UKMET had the West trend well before the Euro. Having said all that..... you have to give credit where credit is due, IRMA has been shockingly well modeled by above modeling. In fact, I can't recall a storm so well modeled. Any one else? The NHC has also modeled this very well by knowing where and how to weight each model

Obviously a poor term I echoed.
Having never Used it before, I shall clearly never use it again.
It has had a dominant influence on my perception of the current storm, and I'll just leave it at that.

Peace and Godspeed

[NFLnut]

On IR I detect a recent, but decided, move north.

Agreed. I see it, too.

[GBPackMan]

Euro and UKMET has consistently been south and now west of the actual track. Putting too much weight on one model and making suggestions as such means big trouble for those who listen and should it decide to make the right turn and head somewhere further east outside of your expected route. This is why there is the cone of uncertainty, so comments like "King Euro" do not contribute to the model discussion.
Will it make a slow swing and head NW for Pensacola? Possible but not likely (less than 5% as of the 5PM predictions from NHC). The next 24 hours are fairly well locked in, and the next 48 sees little movement outside of the expected track, within 30-40 miles (which could mean it stays off shore to stay strong and hammer the state harder or come inland and weakening much quicker being less of a problem for the north end of the state.

I'm not posting this to argue because other than caneman, I'm the last one to use the term you said did not contribute to the discussion. However, it has been better than the NHC at every point (12, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) for Irma over time spanning since August 30th. NHC has done great, I'm not knocking them. But in this particular case, reliance on the Euro up to a point would not have been a bad decision. Obviously that is not the case for every storm or even the future of Irma. That's not my point. But if you followed EC as your sole source for Irma, you'd generally know closer than any other source what's going to be up for the next 5 days (for the past 11 days).

Steve is right. I despise the term King Euro. Not because it's not good but because you're always better to go with the blend. The Euro also has misses so that term can lull people into a false sense of security or panic. However, I give credit where credit is due. The Euro, UKMET and TVCN have been pretty spot on with this system. The UKMET had the West trend well before the Euro. Having said all that..... you have to give credit where credit is due, IRMA has been shockingly well modeled by above modeling. In fact, I can't recall a storm so well modeled. Any one else? The NHC has also modeled this very well by knowing where and how to weight each model

Past performance is not indicative of future movement. We should all know that by now, which is my entire point. Relying too much on a specific model or two that has done well over the past 2-3 days does not mean that reliability will continue, thus the cone of uncertainty.
That trough tracking east that is causing Jose to loop, and the stronger trough building over the central plains may pull/push Irma northeast across the state, either sending it into SC, or exiting into the Atlantic near Jacksonville.... thus why we watch multiple models, not just the 1 or two that have worked well the last few days.

[jdjaguar]

I'm not posting this to argue because other than caneman, I'm the last one to use the term you said did not contribute to the discussion. However, it has been better than the NHC at every point (12, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) for Irma over time spanning since August 30th. NHC has done great, I'm not knocking them. But in this particular case, reliance on the Euro up to a point would not have been a bad decision. Obviously that is not the case for every storm or even the future of Irma. That's not my point. But if you followed EC as your sole source for Irma, you'd generally know closer than any other source what's going to be up for the next 5 days (for the past 11 days).

Steve is right. I despise the term King Euro. Not because it's not good but because you're always better to go with the blend. The Euro also has misses so that term can lull people into a false sense of security or panic. However, I give credit where credit is due. The Euro, UKMET and TVCN have been pretty spot on with this system. The UKMET had the West trend well before the Euro. Having said all that..... you have to give credit where credit is due, IRMA has been shockingly well modeled by above modeling. In fact, I can't recall a storm so well modeled. Any one else? The NHC has also modeled this very well by knowing where and how to weight each model

Past performance is not indicative of future movement. We should all know that by now, which is my entire point. Relying too much on a specific model or two that has done well over the past 2-3 days does not mean that reliability will continue, thus the cone of uncertainty.
That trough tracking east that is causing Jose to loop, and the stronger trough building over the central plains may pull/push Irma northeast across the state, either sending it into SC, or exiting into the Atlantic near Jacksonville.... thus why we watch multiple models, not just the 1 or two that have worked well the last few days.

I follow the NHC guidance.
Which has Jacksonville outside of the cone at present.
You are a real peach, I didn't miss your implication.

[NFLnut]

Past performance is not indicative of future movement. We should all know that by now, which is my entire point. Relying too much on a specific model or two that has done well over the past 2-3 days does not mean that reliability will continue, thus the cone of uncertainty.
That trough tracking east that is causing Jose to loop, and the stronger trough building over the central plains may pull/push Irma northeast across the state, either sending it into SC, or exiting into the Atlantic near Jacksonville.... thus why we watch multiple models, not just the 1 or two that have worked well the last few days.

You're correct on the models. This has always been so. Models that did good last year, or three years ago may not perform as well the next year. Every year, the people in charge of each model regroup and try to figure out what was wrong/right and how to juice it up for the following year. This has always been the case. And always will be the case. Still, a number of the models have their quirks, but the science is getting much, much better. And some models do better days out, and others do better within hours. That is why the NHC is so good at figuring out the weight they should put upon each model within different time frames.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM with a slight shift east:

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM 21 hours, decidedly more east:

[Steve]

I said the same thing Pack. It was just a little buried in there. Not only season to season or storm to storm but run to run even, you never know with models.

Some of the early models are out. We're getting close to landfall, so it's a good time to test the suspect HRRR again. It goes out to 18 hours and is sort of NNW and offshore of SW FL in 18 hours. I haven't been following it at all because we haven't been close to landfall. Here is the latest run valid 00Z.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

NAM 00Z at 19 hours is landfalling in SW Florida. So there's a contrast among the mesoscale models on the southern extreme of their ranges.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z NAM 21 hours, decidedly more east:

This one proves the NAM cant even forecast 20 hrs out.

[caneman]

I'm not posting this to argue because other than caneman, I'm the last one to use the term you said did not contribute to the discussion. However, it has been better than the NHC at every point (12, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) for Irma over time spanning since August 30th. NHC has done great, I'm not knocking them. But in this particular case, reliance on the Euro up to a point would not have been a bad decision. Obviously that is not the case for every storm or even the future of Irma. That's not my point. But if you followed EC as your sole source for Irma, you'd generally know closer than any other source what's going to be up for the next 5 days (for the past 11 days).

Steve is right. I despise the term King Euro. Not because it's not good but because you're always better to go with the blend. The Euro also has misses so that term can lull people into a false sense of security or panic. However, I give credit where credit is due. The Euro, UKMET and TVCN have been pretty spot on with this system. The UKMET had the West trend well before the Euro. Having said all that..... you have to give credit where credit is due, IRMA has been shockingly well modeled by above modeling. In fact, I can't recall a storm so well modeled. Any one else? The NHC has also modeled this very well by knowing where and how to weight each model

Past performance is not indicative of future movement. We should all know that by now, which is my entire point. Relying too much on a specific model or two that has done well over the past 2-3 days does not mean that reliability will continue, thus the cone of uncertainty.
That trough tracking east that is causing Jose to loop, and the stronger trough building over the central plains may pull/push Irma northeast across the state, either sending it into SC, or exiting into the Atlantic near Jacksonville.... thus why we watch multiple models, not just the 1 or two that have worked well the last few days.

A couple days? Try for more than a week the model accuracy has been incredible. There is hardly any cone of uncertainty now as it relates to models. Most models are now just about stacked on each other

[Steve]

LOL D. But it's in a battle of the lightweights with the HRRR. Those are all that are going until the GFS starts running.

[Weatherboy1]

That trough in the Gulf is really diving ... How will Irma make much more westward progress? Is the dramatic slowdown in forward progress a sign of an impending turn? Just wondering ...

[artichoke]

Caneman I'd say there has been considerable model error. The spaghetti has all stuck together, but it's moved together too i.e. all been wrong together.

[caneman]

Caneman I'd say there has been considerable model error. The spaghetti has all stuck together, but it's moved together too i.e. all been wrong together.

Wrong answer. Go back in this thread to model verification. Euro and UKMET had it practically nailed since a week or so ago

[bordot]

Sure has been quiet in here. Sorry for the silly question, but what time does the next Euro start?

[CronkPSU]

Sure has been quiet in here. Sorry for the silly question, but what time does the next Euro start?

GFS in the next 30 minutes, Euro starts its run at 1:45

[Steve]

GFS agreeing with Alyono hitting a 15 mb drop first 12 hours (from 8PM EDT).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=143