ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

Damn. Those ensembles really like the reverse fade toward Tallahassee. I thought most would come up farther east through the state instead of the NE Gulf. The ensembles as a whole seem to be kind of far west for the operational result. They'll drift back or operational will follow. Ordinarily I'd say a hurricane in the Gulf before or at the peak of the season moving NW or NNW would probably intensify. I don't have the data, so that's anecdotal from my observations and experience only. However, the unique situation with Irma is that if the ECMWF Ensembles are right, it goes the other way. This is due to the trough to Irma's west. Between that trough, Irma probably still a Cat 1 (if that's what yellow on the ensembles indicates) and the high pressure to its north, I could see 35-50 winds well to the the mouth of the river if they verified.

GFS would bring at least tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions across most of NE FL already as you can see on the 48 hours through 54 hours runs. It also spreads way more rain into hours 42 through 72. You'd think the GFS would have gales pretty far west into the Gulf as well. I haven't looked at the windfields for Day 2-3 on either EC or GFS, I'm speculating based on the pressure shown in the runs and expanding isobars.

42
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

48
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

54
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

[p1nheadlarry]

12z Euro Ensembles

So a west shift is continuing, looks like Panama City Beach is now in the cross-hairs.

It does have a ceiling as far west as it can go on the coast, but they're probably just at the limit. Did not think this was going to happen, even when this was a possibility 5 days ago.

[JPmia]

Yeah, these west shifts are becoming a little concerning for the folks in the Panhandle I would imagine.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 00 -> 18:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 24:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS a bit more east than the 12z @ landfall:

[tolakram]

Closer versions.



Landfall trend

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 24 -> 42:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Landfall between Marco Island & Everglades City... @20 mile E shift from 12z... After moving E of Tampa and little W of 12z from there...

[tolakram]

Apparently there's an article on arstechnica where someone got a hold of the Albany error plots and slagged the GFS (well deserved, as I've stated before) but also the NHC for not being as accurate as the euro. I find that a little maddening since the only reason NHC lagged behind, IMO, is due to their slow response when a model starts swinging around.

The Euro has by far the best performance of any model this time but during Matthew, in a similar location, it had a few runs where it kept going left inland, something that never materialized. Put this article into the hands of a kid who's mad he didn't get hit with a hurricane and you get a bad result.

Don't ask me how I know.

[bamajammer4eva]

I notice it looks like in the Euro plots above that even if it turned that far west, it should be weakening at least a little on approach probably from shear. Here is another view of Euro mean

[jdjaguar]

Apparently there's an article on arstechnica where someone got a hold of the Albany error plots and slagged the GFS (well deserved, as I've stated before) but also the NHC for not being as accurate as the euro. I find that a little maddening since the only reason NHC lagged behind, IMO, is due to their slow response when a model starts swinging around.

The Euro has by far the best performance of any model this time but during Matthew, in a similar location, it had a few runs where it kept going left inland, something that never materialized. Put this article into the hands of a kid who's mad he didn't get hit with a hurricane and you get a bad result.

Don't ask me how I know.

King Euro

[GBPackMan]

Euro and UKMET has consistently been south and now west of the actual track. Putting too much weight on one model and making suggestions as such means big trouble for those who listen and should it decide to make the right turn and head somewhere further east outside of your expected route. This is why there is the cone of uncertainty, so comments like "King Euro" do not contribute to the model discussion.
Will it make a slow swing and head NW for Pensacola? Possible but not likely (less than 5% as of the 5PM predictions from NHC). The next 24 hours are fairly well locked in, and the next 48 sees little movement outside of the expected track, within 30-40 miles (which could mean it stays off shore to stay strong and hammer the state harder or come inland and weakening much quicker being less of a problem for the north end of the state.

[Steve]

Euro and UKMET has consistently been south and now west of the actual track. Putting too much weight on one model and making suggestions as such means big trouble for those who listen and should it decide to make the right turn and head somewhere further east outside of your expected route. This is why there is the cone of uncertainty, so comments like "King Euro" do not contribute to the model discussion.
Will it make a slow swing and head NW for Pensacola? Possible but not likely (less than 5% as of the 5PM predictions from NHC). The next 24 hours are fairly well locked in, and the next 48 sees little movement outside of the expected track, within 30-40 miles (which could mean it stays off shore to stay strong and hammer the state harder or come inland and weakening much quicker being less of a problem for the north end of the state.

I'm not posting this to argue because other than caneman, I'm the last one to use the term you said did not contribute to the discussion. However, it has been better than the NHC at every point (12, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) for Irma over time spanning since August 30th. NHC has done great, I'm not knocking them. But in this particular case, reliance on the Euro up to a point would not have been a bad decision. Obviously that is not the case for every storm or even the future of Irma. That's not my point. But if you followed EC as your sole source for Irma, you'd generally know closer than any other source what's going to be up for the next 5 days (for the past 11 days).

[jdjaguar]

Euro and UKMET has consistently been south and now west of the actual track. Putting too much weight on one model and making suggestions as such means big trouble for those who listen and should it decide to make the right turn and head somewhere further east outside of your expected route. This is why there is the cone of uncertainty, so comments like "King Euro" do not contribute to the model discussion.
Will it make a slow swing and head NW for Pensacola? Possible but not likely (less than 5% as of the 5PM predictions from NHC). The next 24 hours are fairly well locked in, and the next 48 sees little movement outside of the expected track, within 30-40 miles (which could mean it stays off shore to stay strong and hammer the state harder or come inland and weakening much quicker being less of a problem for the north end of the state.

I'm not posting this to argue because other than caneman, I'm the last one to use the term you said did not contribute to the discussion. However, it has been better than the NHC at every point (12, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) for Irma over time spanning since August 30th. NHC has done great, I'm not knocking them. But in this particular case, reliance on the Euro up to a point would not have been a bad decision. Obviously that is not the case for every storm or even the future of Irma. That's not my point. But if you followed EC as your sole source for Irma, you'd generally know closer than any other source what's going to be up for the next 5 days (for the past 11 days).

Thanks Steve.
I perhaps should have elaborated as you so eloquently did.

The euro has been pulling west for the past 7 days I have been tracking

[KWT]

Worth noting the GFS is quicker than the Euro suite of ensembles, it already has it leaving Florida, whilst the 12z ensembles have it near Tampa lattitude, thats probably why the ECM models are further west due to it not picking up the trough connection till a little later.

[ChucktownStormer]

Seems like we've been waiting on this northward turn forever. Every day it's "any moment now." This storm is stubborn as hell.

[caneman]

Euro and UKMET has consistently been south and now west of the actual track. Putting too much weight on one model and making suggestions as such means big trouble for those who listen and should it decide to make the right turn and head somewhere further east outside of your expected route. This is why there is the cone of uncertainty, so comments like "King Euro" do not contribute to the model discussion.
Will it make a slow swing and head NW for Pensacola? Possible but not likely (less than 5% as of the 5PM predictions from NHC). The next 24 hours are fairly well locked in, and the next 48 sees little movement outside of the expected track, within 30-40 miles (which could mean it stays off shore to stay strong and hammer the state harder or come inland and weakening much quicker being less of a problem for the north end of the state.

I'm not posting this to argue because other than caneman, I'm the last one to use the term you said did not contribute to the discussion. However, it has been better than the NHC at every point (12, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) for Irma over time spanning since August 30th. NHC has done great, I'm not knocking them. But in this particular case, reliance on the Euro up to a point would not have been a bad decision. Obviously that is not the case for every storm or even the future of Irma. That's not my point. But if you followed EC as your sole source for Irma, you'd generally know closer than any other source what's going to be up for the next 5 days (for the past 11 days).

Steve is right. I despise the term King Euro. Not because it's not good but because you're always better to go with the blend. The Euro also has misses so that term can lull people into a false sense of security or panic. However, I give credit where credit is due. The Euro, UKMET and TVCN have been pretty spot on with this system. The UKMET had the West trend well before the Euro. Having said all that..... you have to give credit where credit is due, IRMA has been shockingly well modeled by above modeling. In fact, I can't recall a storm so well modeled. Any one else? The NHC has also modeled this very well by knowing where and how to weight each model

[Steve]

Seems like we've been waiting on this northward turn forever. Every day it's "any moment now." This storm is stubborn as hell.

Read the NHC's storm-specific discussions 4 times a day when they come out. They are always good with what's been happening and will always correct something if a storm does something else. I didn't see anyone say "any moment now" every day. That's impatience coming out of you. I'm not trying to be a ****, I'm just saying that no one on here, no model and no authority will be perfect on timing and evolution all the time. Not singling you out, but Facebook-type creep seems to ooze in when people get impatient. There are generalities and usually no perfect answers. If you can cite a credible source that has been saying "any moment now" I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt which I'm doing anyway since it's your first post. You're not mad about some aspect of Irma, are you?

[LAwxrgal]

I have a question to ask, maybe a pro met or someone more knowledgeable than myself can chime in...

I've always heard that strong storms tend to 'create their own environment.' And the UKMet picked up on a 'delay' in the storm's northward turn before all the other models. Is Irma pumping the ridge above her? Or is the ridge simply stronger than originally forecast?

I'm just wondering and watching this storm, befuddled. Still a lot more to learn about these.