ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

Where does it make landfall in the Keys? Hard to tell from the pics.

I think the hurricane depiction is close to the larger scale output though not exactly the same. Quite the run in the GFS bucking the 930s/940s trends of other models.

36 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=397

[weatherwindow]

Where does it make landfall in the Keys? Hard to tell from the pics.

Difficult to be precise given scaling problems...However as a resident, would suggest between Sugarloaf and Big Pine...I left for the storm...but Godspeed to the hard core that chose to ride It out....Rich

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12z GFS has Irma moving a bit faster, so landfall happens about 4 hours earlier than on the 6z run.

[jhpigott]

The 12z GFS has Irma moving a bit faster, so landfall happens about 4 hours earlier than on the 6z run.

Looks a touch E of the 6z run?

[fendie]

Where does it make landfall in the Keys? Hard to tell from the pics.

Difficult to be precise given scaling problems...However as a resident, would suggest between Sugarloaf and Big Pine...I left for the storm...but Godspeed to the hard core that chose to ride It out....Rich

12 GFS high-res landfalls just before 8 am EDT Sunday between Cudjoe Key, FL and Big Pine Key, FL.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Kudos to the Euro. It has done the best long range track projection with Iram, at least thus far.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12z GFS has Irma moving a bit faster, so landfall happens about 4 hours earlier than on the 6z run.

Looks a touch E of the 6z run?

It's hard to tell... because of the timing differences, it appears to be going almost a hair E of due N for a second, and then starts moving back N or N/NW. Both runs seem pretty similar except for timing.

[stormreader]

GFS for several runs now has gone with the idea that this storm will explosively deepen in the Straits once it leaves Cuba. Now, that 896 is probably overdone, but I hope everyone in the Keys and SW Florida is prepared and ready for a monster. I hope that doesn't pan out.

Also interesting is it maintains some strength into Georgia, too.

Seems like it must be exaggerated some..... but, this model run is in a very short time frame, compared to looking at forecast intensities for storms a week out. That fact, I think, increases its reliability. Not saying we'll get 896 mb's, but we could really get rapid intensification. I think we should expect that. Definitely look for top end Cat 4, anyway.

[MrJames]

UKMet shifted west a little to line up with the NHC track.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Irma following the forecast cone quite on point. Behaving as forecasted by the NHC. No real unpredictable movement.

[shawn6304]

Irma following the forecast cone quite on point. Behaving as forecasted by the NHC. No real unpredictable movement.

It is NE of NHC Track and even more NE of Euro

[dixiebreeze]

She appears to be almost OFF the coast of Citrus County N. of Tampa. Possible she could travel into the Panhandle? Reminds me somewhat of Elena who spun for three days just offshore of Cedar Key.

[MrJames]

12z Euro is running

[MrJames]

Slightly west at 24

[Big Easy Breeze]

Irma following the forecast cone quite on point. Behaving as forecasted by the NHC. No real unpredictable movement.

It is NE of NHC Track and even more NE of Euro

If she is in the cone, she is along the forecast track of the NHC.

[Nimbus]

She appears to be almost OFF the coast of Citrus County N. of Tampa. Possible she could travel into the Panhandle? Reminds me somewhat of Elena who spun for three days just offshore of Cedar Key.

Usually better to focus a little closer on the current position.
Will Irma reach 81W before crossing 24N?

[tolakram]

25N, 82W - 937MB via Weatherbell

[MrJames]

[AxaltaRacing24]

Run was too far south IMO. It had the storm in the middle of Cuba.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906579174139338752




Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
No change to the ECMWF forecast at 12z. Intensifying Hurricane #Irma right up to landfall. 928 mb suggests dangerous high-end Cat 4.
2:04 PM - Sep 9, 2017