ATL: IRMA - Models

[Palmcitycane]

I saw the latest runs of HWRF and GFS, thanks again for posting them. Did the UKMET run again this morning? Anyone have a link where to view it? Thank you.

This plot hasn't updated yet but you can see the 00 run here at the link below. Last check it was still showing the 12z run.



Click in the day buttons for UKM like I did here (blue D4 button)



https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Thanks Mark - much appreciated.

[Weatherboy1]

I know it's the NAM. But the 12Z model solution is about 20 miles further east throughout.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=seus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090912&fh=30url

The old BAM models (now TABs on this map) are also 20 miles or so east as of 12Z.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Yes these models are generally useless ... BUT the only worth may be as an early indicator of what the "real" models may/will do when they run in the next couple of hours. We will see.

[Nimbus]

The outflow from Irma pretty clearly outlines the trough position.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Big Easy Breeze]

The outflow from Irma pretty clearly outlines the trough position.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

It sure does. NHC is on point as usual. No surprises. Irma was not supposed to begin her turn, until today. She is following the model forecast positions from the NHC pretty much on point.

[Ntxw]

Model scores. AVNO = GFS

Canadian beat it at every timepoint. I said it 3 years ago, kind of regretted it, but I'll say it again. This is a software development problem, they need a new team. When you release a version that is worse than the last people usually get fired. Development - testing - validation - release.

https://i.imgur.com/8RRad19.png

ECMWF (Euro), for the varying periods, continues to lead the pack. Run per run may not be on exact, but performs better than most if not all other guidance overall. It has an impressive resume with Sandy, Joaquin amongst others. Track wise

[tolakram]

GFS 12z running

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Look at the pressure drop. You know I've doubted this for a while, but we shall see.

[floridasun78]

were were gfs take irma

[AdamFirst]

GFS continues to bomb it out on approach...sub-900 pressure

[Raebie]

Look at the pressure drop. You know I've doubted this for a while, but we shall see.

If that verifies, even a little bit, the Keys are about to have a very bad day.

[tolakram]

[floridasun78]

Look at the pressure drop. You know I've doubted this for a while, but we shall see.

gfs want bring good wind se coast too looking color

[tolakram]

[floridasun78]

Look at the pressure drop. You know I've doubted this for a while, but we shall see.

gfs want bring good wind se coast too looking color

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

12z run

[tolakram]

GFS total precip estimates

[Raebie]

Where does it make landfall in the Keys? Hard to tell from the pics.

[LAwxrgal]

GFS for several runs now has gone with the idea that this storm will explosively deepen in the Straits once it leaves Cuba. Now, that 896 is probably overdone, but I hope everyone in the Keys and SW Florida is prepared and ready for a monster. I hope that doesn't pan out.

Also interesting is it maintains some strength into Georgia, too.