ATL: IRMA - Models

[jlauderdal]

I'm using the forecast 80W crossing at 23N as a benchmark for the current forecast, going to be a little rough for the Tampa bay area if the track swings even a little further west..

marathon, key west, naples, ft myers, sarasota, tampa bay all at risk of a direct hit or at least eyewall..this system isnt going west forever and will come back east at some point

Last Euro wind model has the eye passing over my house. I'll report in a month what it was like when I get power back.

it was over my house too, hopefully we can get the eye at least 50 miles offshore then weaken the system by the time it gets to the panhandle, that would be good

[Laser30033003]

with the models moving west for the last 2 days.....what is the likelihood of it moving west way west of Florida????

[MidnightRain]

with the models moving west for the last 2 days.....what is the likelihood of it moving west way west of Florida????

I would say close to 0%. The due west/WSW movement we've seen the past 24 hours was actually called by majority of the models. The turn is just going to be less abrupt than the models were indicating a few days ago, but today we should see Irma lift off the coast of Cuba more.

[tolakram]

with the models moving west for the last 2 days.....what is the likelihood of it moving west way west of Florida????

Not likely as there's a pretty good wall in the way.



https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1600&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[stormchazer]

Is it possible that Jose's strength is causing the Ridge to build a bit furthest west than models yesterday forecast?

[tolakram]

Is it possible that Jose's strength is causing the Ridge to build a bit furthest west than models yesterday forecast?

Dunno, not a met, but so far the forecast is pretty good, Irma just went a tad south of forecast, but not by much.

[Jevo]

To the naked eye she looks north of the 0z Euro plots. The model had it further inland at this point.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS

[johngaltfla]

marathon, key west, naples, ft myers, sarasota, tampa bay all at risk of a direct hit or at least eyewall..this system isnt going west forever and will come back east at some point

Last Euro wind model has the eye passing over my house. I'll report in a month what it was like when I get power back.

it was over my house too, hopefully we can get the eye at least 50 miles offshore then weaken the system by the time it gets to the panhandle, that would be good

Believe it or not, that would be WORSE for us. That would put 150 mph+ wind gusts with 15 foot surge into our area. I'd prefer it go east of my house as the GFS model has it.

[Jevo]

6z HMON is East of the other models with initial conus landfall around Big Pine Key and Secondary close to Everglades City

[opticsguy]

Enjoying a night with the windows open in Dallas, usually a month before the normal Fall cool-down. There's a huge 700 MB high centered over OK that must be stronger than forecast a week ago when the sharp right turn was in all the models. I always wondered how all that momentum could be changed in a few hours.

Anyway, for doom stuff there's always the 3KM NAM that takes Irma just off the coast all the way to the FL panhandle. Imagine escaping S FL and having to bug out again.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_57.png

[jlauderdal]

Last Euro wind model has the eye passing over my house. I'll report in a month what it was like when I get power back.

it was over my house too, hopefully we can get the eye at least 50 miles offshore then weaken the system by the time it gets to the panhandle, that would be good

Believe it or not, that would be WORSE for us. That would put 150 mph+ wind gusts with 15 foot surge into our area. I'd prefer it go east of my house as the GFS model has it.

you need to prepare for direct hit like i did...no sense trying to smooth out model differences

[tolakram]

6z HWRF

[johngaltfla]

it was over my house too, hopefully we can get the eye at least 50 miles offshore then weaken the system by the time it gets to the panhandle, that would be good

Believe it or not, that would be WORSE for us. That would put 150 mph+ wind gusts with 15 foot surge into our area. I'd prefer it go east of my house as the GFS model has it.

you need to prepare for direct hit like i did...no sense trying to smooth out model differences

Way ahead of you. Freezing my last two blocks of ice this morning and looking good on food, water, batteries, and of course, beer.

[Steve]

UKmet absolutely nailed it. Just like with Mathew last year.

blp,

You might be surprised, but the verifications 8-30 through 9-8 shows it trailing the European in periods 12, 48, 96 and 120 hours and slightly ahead at 24 hours. What is most surprising to me is that it only beat the Canadian (!) in 12, 24, 48 and 120 hours. CMC has been better at 72 and 96 hours. HWRF is better than the UK in 96 and 120 hours. NHC official track is ahead of the UK Met for all periods besides 48 and 72 hours. It did perform
very well vs TVCN in all periods but 12 hours. It's definitely done a good job, but the European had been doing the best from last Wednesday through yesterday at 12Z.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Bottom line is and as typical, pay attention to the official NHC forecast and not the "what if's", "it cannot", "on its way", "there it is", "on time" and any other phrase many in public forums like to use.

Be vigilant and smart.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Not sure of model forecast, but latest advisory has Irma moving west.

[Palmcitycane]

I saw the latest runs of HWRF and GFS, thanks again for posting them. Did the UKMET run again this morning? Anyone have a link where to view it? Thank you.

[tolakram]

Model scores. AVNO = GFS

Canadian beat it at every timepoint. I said it 3 years ago, kind of regretted it, but I'll say it again. This is a software development problem, they need a new team. When you release a version that is worse than the last people usually get fired. Development - testing - validation - release.

[tolakram]

I saw the latest runs of HWRF and GFS, thanks again for posting them. Did the UKMET run again this morning? Anyone have a link where to view it? Thank you.

This plot hasn't updated yet but you can see the 00 run here at the link below. Last check it was still showing the 12z run.

Click in the day buttons for UKM like I did here (blue D4 button)



https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/