ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9941 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:10 am

johngaltfla wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
I'm using the forecast 80W crossing at 23N as a benchmark for the current forecast, going to be a little rough for the Tampa bay area if the track swings even a little further west..
marathon, key west, naples, ft myers, sarasota, tampa bay all at risk of a direct hit or at least eyewall..this system isnt going west forever and will come back east at some point


Last Euro wind model has the eye passing over my house. I'll report in a month what it was like when I get power back. :double:
it was over my house too, hopefully we can get the eye at least 50 miles offshore then weaken the system by the time it gets to the panhandle, that would be good
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9942 Postby Laser30033003 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:17 am

with the models moving west for the last 2 days.....what is the likelihood of it moving west way west of Florida????
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9943 Postby MidnightRain » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:22 am

Laser30033003 wrote:with the models moving west for the last 2 days.....what is the likelihood of it moving west way west of Florida????

I would say close to 0%. The due west/WSW movement we've seen the past 24 hours was actually called by majority of the models. The turn is just going to be less abrupt than the models were indicating a few days ago, but today we should see Irma lift off the coast of Cuba more.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9944 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:23 am

Laser30033003 wrote:with the models moving west for the last 2 days.....what is the likelihood of it moving west way west of Florida????


Not likely as there's a pretty good wall in the way.

Image

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1600&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9945 Postby stormchazer » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:27 am

Is it possible that Jose's strength is causing the Ridge to build a bit furthest west than models yesterday forecast?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9946 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:31 am

stormchazer wrote:Is it possible that Jose's strength is causing the Ridge to build a bit furthest west than models yesterday forecast?



Dunno, not a met, but so far the forecast is pretty good, Irma just went a tad south of forecast, but not by much.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9947 Postby Jevo » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:36 am

To the naked eye she looks north of the 0z Euro plots. The model had it further inland at this point.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9948 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:38 am

6Z GFS

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9949 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:43 am

jlauderdal wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:marathon, key west, naples, ft myers, sarasota, tampa bay all at risk of a direct hit or at least eyewall..this system isnt going west forever and will come back east at some point


Last Euro wind model has the eye passing over my house. I'll report in a month what it was like when I get power back. :double:
it was over my house too, hopefully we can get the eye at least 50 miles offshore then weaken the system by the time it gets to the panhandle, that would be good


Believe it or not, that would be WORSE for us. That would put 150 mph+ wind gusts with 15 foot surge into our area. I'd prefer it go east of my house as the GFS model has it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9950 Postby Jevo » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:49 am

6z HMON is East of the other models with initial conus landfall around Big Pine Key and Secondary close to Everglades City

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9951 Postby opticsguy » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:54 am

Enjoying a night with the windows open in Dallas, usually a month before the normal Fall cool-down. There's a huge 700 MB high centered over OK that must be stronger than forecast a week ago when the sharp right turn was in all the models. I always wondered how all that momentum could be changed in a few hours.

Anyway, for doom stuff there's always the 3KM NAM that takes Irma just off the coast all the way to the FL panhandle. Imagine escaping S FL and having to bug out again.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_57.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9952 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:00 am

johngaltfla wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
Last Euro wind model has the eye passing over my house. I'll report in a month what it was like when I get power back. :double:
it was over my house too, hopefully we can get the eye at least 50 miles offshore then weaken the system by the time it gets to the panhandle, that would be good


Believe it or not, that would be WORSE for us. That would put 150 mph+ wind gusts with 15 foot surge into our area. I'd prefer it go east of my house as the GFS model has it.
you need to prepare for direct hit like i did...no sense trying to smooth out model differences
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9953 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:00 am

6z HWRF

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9954 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:11 am

jlauderdal wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:it was over my house too, hopefully we can get the eye at least 50 miles offshore then weaken the system by the time it gets to the panhandle, that would be good


Believe it or not, that would be WORSE for us. That would put 150 mph+ wind gusts with 15 foot surge into our area. I'd prefer it go east of my house as the GFS model has it.
you need to prepare for direct hit like i did...no sense trying to smooth out model differences


Way ahead of you. Freezing my last two blocks of ice this morning and looking good on food, water, batteries, and of course, beer.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9955 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:39 am

blp wrote:UKmet absolutely nailed it. Just like with Mathew last year.


blp,

You might be surprised, but the verifications 8-30 through 9-8 shows it trailing the European in periods 12, 48, 96 and 120 hours and slightly ahead at 24 hours. What is most surprising to me is that it only beat the Canadian (!) in 12, 24, 48 and 120 hours. CMC has been better at 72 and 96 hours. HWRF is better than the UK in 96 and 120 hours. NHC official track is ahead of the UK Met for all periods besides 48 and 72 hours. It did perform
very well vs TVCN in all periods but 12 hours. It's definitely done a good job, but the European had been doing the best from last Wednesday through yesterday at 12Z.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9956 Postby Big Easy Breeze » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:48 am

Bottom line is and as typical, pay attention to the official NHC forecast and not the "what if's", "it cannot", "on its way", "there it is", "on time" and any other phrase many in public forums like to use.

Be vigilant and smart.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9957 Postby Big Easy Breeze » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:52 am

Not sure of model forecast, but latest advisory has Irma moving west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9958 Postby Palmcitycane » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:42 am

I saw the latest runs of HWRF and GFS, thanks again for posting them. Did the UKMET run again this morning? Anyone have a link where to view it? Thank you.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9959 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:43 am

Model scores. AVNO = GFS

Canadian beat it at every timepoint. I said it 3 years ago, kind of regretted it, but I'll say it again. This is a software development problem, they need a new team. When you release a version that is worse than the last people usually get fired. Development - testing - validation - release.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9960 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:57 am

Palmcitycane wrote:I saw the latest runs of HWRF and GFS, thanks again for posting them. Did the UKMET run again this morning? Anyone have a link where to view it? Thank you.



This plot hasn't updated yet but you can see the 00 run here at the link below. Last check it was still showing the 12z run.

Click in the day buttons for UKM like I did here (blue D4 button)

Image

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
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