ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Shell Mound]

The 00:00 UTC European ensemble mean now shows a path over the Dry Tortugas and to the west of the peninsula before landfall near St. Marks.

That is a significant westward shift indeed, putting the entire west coast between the western Keys and Cedar Key on the northeast side.

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensembles continue their westward trend:


GFS ensembles are widespread:

[txrok]

What the .... ?????
What's this going into GoM stuff?
seriously?

Ukmet

No pretty crayon work bet still V/effective. The turn will come latter today (Sat)

[brghteys1216]

GFS west of it's 00z run.

[blp]

UKmet absolutely nailed it. Just like with Mathew last year.

[KWT]

Of course the GFS would be west...I'm not sure I've seen a storm that has always been west of where the last forecast predicted it to be!

[brghteys1216]

Landfall at roughly 42 hours


This run is also nasty for Tampa and Orlando.

[Michele B]

Just woke up to this?!?!?

It's Donna again.

It's Charlie again.

If it comes up the west coast like this, it'll come up the Peace River again. It's what they do. It's the warm water of the Peace River. It sucks them in like bees to honey.

[jlauderdal]

Of course the GFS would be west...I'm not sure I've seen a storm that has always been west of where the last forecast predicted it to be!

with all the data sampling going on it just proves how difficult and dynamic the atmosphere is especially around these systems....we have seen this with ridging so many times with the hurricanes, once they get moving west you almost cant bet against it until you actually see it turn..its interesting that they can accurately determine the break in the ridge with all the planes flying and balloons

[Maineman]

ECMWF 00z again a devastating outlook for the keys. Spaghetti ensemble for Keys, example Key West

Gusts

https://weather.us/forecast/4160812-key-west/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

Cape Coral:

Gusts

https://weather.us/forecast/4149962-cap ... wind-gusts


Works for any place worldwide or menu parameter. Sorry for loading time, will go away next week.

[Jevo]

Good morning model watchers... Waking up and looking at the overnights and feeling cautiously optimistic about the future of my roof as a Southeast Floridian and concerned for my neighbors in the Keys and on the west coast. I'd like to see them kick out a little more West, but based on synoptics right now that may not be realistic. I ventured into the storm discussion page and it apparently has turned into opinion thunderdome... I'll stay over here for now Waiting on the 6z's to start rolling in after the GFS

[Jevo]

6z HWRF +30 is a scary scenario.. Initial CONUS landfall in the lower Keys and Key West

[jlauderdal]

Good morning model watchers... Waking up and looking at the overnights and feeling cautiously optimistic about the future of my roof as a Southeast Floridian and concerned for my neighbors in the Keys and on the west coast. I'd like to see them kick out a little more West, but based on synoptics right now that may not be realistic. I ventured into the storm discussion page and it apparently has turned into opinion thunderdome... I'll stay over here for now Waiting on the 6z's to start rolling in after the GFS

no reason to think roofs are flying off in se florida except possibly in tornados...there have already been a few trees down in se florida but that is to be expected especially as rains increase with wind..good work by the ukmet sniffing out this westward jaunt...euro been good too..each storm is different folks, the american model will have its day in the sun but that will have to wait

[bamajammer4eva]

Here are the trend of 00z EURO ensembles over the past four days. Unfortunately they are shifting steadily west across GA putting more and more of GA into the bad side of Irma. Heaviest rain, strongest winds and tornado threat occurs to the right of the track. Also note that the farther west it trends the stronger it ends up inland since it has longer over water.

[Nimbus]

Good morning model watchers... Waking up and looking at the overnights and feeling cautiously optimistic about the future of my roof as a Southeast Floridian and concerned for my neighbors in the Keys and on the west coast. I'd like to see them kick out a little more West, but based on synoptics right now that may not be realistic. I ventured into the storm discussion page and it apparently has turned into opinion thunderdome... I'll stay over here for now Waiting on the 6z's to start rolling in after the GFS

no reason to think roofs are flying off in se florida except possibly in tornados...there have already been a few trees down in se florida but that is to be expected especially as rains increase with wind..good work by the ukmet sniffing out this westward jaunt...euro been good too..each storm is different folks, the american model will have its day in the sun but that will have to wait

I'm using the forecast 80W crossing at 23N as a benchmark for the current forecast, going to be a little rough for the Tampa bay area if the track swings even a little further west..

[jlauderdal]

Good morning model watchers... Waking up and looking at the overnights and feeling cautiously optimistic about the future of my roof as a Southeast Floridian and concerned for my neighbors in the Keys and on the west coast. I'd like to see them kick out a little more West, but based on synoptics right now that may not be realistic. I ventured into the storm discussion page and it apparently has turned into opinion thunderdome... I'll stay over here for now Waiting on the 6z's to start rolling in after the GFS

no reason to think roofs are flying off in se florida except possibly in tornados...there have already been a few trees down in se florida but that is to be expected especially as rains increase with wind..good work by the ukmet sniffing out this westward jaunt...euro been good too..each storm is different folks, the american model will have its day in the sun but that will have to wait

I'm using the forecast 80W crossing at 23N as a benchmark for the current forecast, going to be a little rough for the Tampa bay area if the track swings even a little further west..

marathon, key west, naples, ft myers, sarasota, tampa bay all at risk of a direct hit or at least eyewall..this system isnt going west forever and will come back east at some point

[Jevo]

06z HWRF +45 Secondary CONUS landfall solution

[johngaltfla]

no reason to think roofs are flying off in se florida except possibly in tornados...there have already been a few trees down in se florida but that is to be expected especially as rains increase with wind..good work by the ukmet sniffing out this westward jaunt...euro been good too..each storm is different folks, the american model will have its day in the sun but that will have to wait

I'm using the forecast 80W crossing at 23N as a benchmark for the current forecast, going to be a little rough for the Tampa bay area if the track swings even a little further west..

marathon, key west, naples, ft myers, sarasota, tampa bay all at risk of a direct hit or at least eyewall..this system isnt going west forever and will come back east at some point

Last Euro wind model has the eye passing over my house. I'll report in a month what it was like when I get power back.