ATL: IRMA - Models

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tallywx
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9881 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:00 am

Key West hit this run.
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PandaCitrus
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9882 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:01 am

No evidence yet but every euro shifts west. It's the trend.

At 48 hours, it looks like it's off the coast around Ft. Myers or a landfall? I need to see higher res.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9883 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:02 am

Image

Bad run for Naples/Cape Coral
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9884 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:02 am

T+48 slightly offshore (West) of Naples wow.
Last edited by tallywx on Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9885 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:03 am

West Coast landfall!


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=48
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9886 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:03 am

Still off the coast. Tremendous surge potential on the east side and higher winds. Bad. Everyone needs to hope Cuba takes Irma down to a Cat 3 and she can't recover.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9887 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:03 am

PandaCitrus wrote:Wow, if this goes into the gulf and hits the panhandle and misses the entire Florida peninsula to the west. That would be something.


News here said tonight that models showed the N Gulf is protected by upper level system so it has to go east of that
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9888 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:04 am

Bad run for Naples/Cape Coral[/quote]

Yep, horrific. Another West shift and Tampa could be in trouble.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9889 Postby joey » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:04 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Image

Bad run for Naples/Cape Coral


is that still looking bad for se fl at that stage
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9890 Postby Jevo » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:04 am

I think at the most you may see a .5 shift in track either way.. Storm core is back over the water. I'm eager to see if it makes the first forecast point. We have no clue which model verifies until the turn begins... Wobble watching has become turn watching.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9891 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:05 am

Most of the intensification is occurring after it hits Key West in the EC run
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9892 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:05 am

so look good for east coast not getting heart of storm
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9893 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:05 am

Eye looks to come in around Captiva Island. T+54 has the eye over Sarasota. This is a significant shift west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9894 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:06 am

floridasun78 wrote:so look good for east coast not getting heart of storm


Except now Key West-Naples-Ft.Myers-Sarasota all get the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9895 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:07 am

Center passes over Tampa and Crystal River and just east of Perry. Farthest west run yet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9896 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:07 am

And surge values are going to go way up 15+ feet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9897 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:08 am

direct hit on Tampa
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9898 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:08 am

tallywx wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:so look good for east coast not getting heart of storm


Except now Key West-Naples-Ft.Myers-Sarasota all get the eyewall.


Yep. Miami is a large metro area, but the angle of approach on this coast would be much worse in regards to surge and the strongest winds of the storm being on shore.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9899 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:08 am

Good Lord. This is the worst case scenario for the west coast of Florida.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9900 Postby psyclone » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:10 am

Alyono wrote:direct hit on Tampa

OMG...I am gravely concerned about these west shifts
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