ATL: IRMA - Models

[Blizzard96x]

will rest go east like gfs this cazy hurr to track models

Gfs east sf
Cmc east again back to se fl

This is not true, CMC is way west.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The CMC is the most bipolar model I've ever seen.

you think would go far west? that mean miami see only ts wind if cms right

Depends on how silly the run gets. If it goes straight into FL then maybe, but if it goes far into the GOM then no.

[Steve]

HWRF mostly runs the coast of Cuba. It curves up soon (convex?) so west or wnw can still move close to the shoreline. It's turning up at 33 hours after smashing the Cuban coast for the 21 hours into the run began 7P.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

HMON out to 36 hours spends less time on the coast but swings pretty wide into the western Keys.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=36

[ALhurricane]

Our local met -who is at full alarm mode - said watch for possible Gulf entry... Said trough failed to erode ridge...

That's just crazy. The trough is just coming in.

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF maybe half a degree to the east through 39 hours.

[Steve]

Our local met -who is at full alarm mode - said watch for possible Gulf entry... Said trough failed to erode ridge...

That's just crazy. The trough is just coming in.

Probably was referring to the one in the East and not the reinforcement coming through Arkansas at the moment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif

[Jevo]

0z HWRF +42 back East from 18z... Not by much, but noticeable

Goes on to run up the spine of the state

[bella_may]

Which CMC are y'all looking at? The latest one I see takes it up the spine of Florida

[bamajammer4eva]

No Change in Navgem

[floridasun78]

HWRF mostly runs the coast of Cuba. It curves up soon (convex?) so west or wnw can still move close to the shoreline. It's turning up at 33 hours after smashing the Cuban coast for the 21 hours into the run began 7P.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

HMON out to 36 hours spends less time on the coast but swings pretty wide into the western Keys.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=36

missing part of run

[sponger]

Alright Euro is running. Hoping it does not follow the GFS EAST.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[PandaCitrus]

Euro at 24 hours is still on the Cuban coast!

[floridasun78]

Alright Euro is running. Hoping it does not follow the GFS EAST.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

look like west but not all out

[sponger]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=24

24 HR still hugging Cuba.

[FLpanhandle91]

That is quite the shift west so far... is it possible 00z Euro took the earlier dive into Cuba and ran with it a bit too much?

[Alyono]

slight SW shift from the EC. GFS shift can be ignored

[sponger]

Ridge is gone at 24, cleared to go North.

[PandaCitrus]

Wow, if this goes into the gulf and hits the panhandle and misses the entire Florida peninsula to the west. That would be something.

[tronbunny]

Euro at 24 hours is still on the Cuban coast!

Irma is south and west of the points from last 2 runs

[FLpanhandle91]

Wow, if this goes into the gulf and hits the panhandle and misses the entire Florida peninsula to the west. That would be something.

No evidence to suggest this.