What is going on and what does this mean for the models? Will the stall allow more time for the trough to break up the ridge and allow Irma to move east sooner than expected?
https://twitter.com/ChrisSuchanKCTV/status/906363792895987712
ATL: IRMA - Models
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PandaCitrus
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.09.2017
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 77.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2017 0 22.3N 77.1W 921 97
1200UTC 09.09.2017 12 22.5N 79.2W 940 85
0000UTC 10.09.2017 24 23.0N 80.6W 940 84
1200UTC 10.09.2017 36 23.9N 81.3W 933 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 48 25.8N 81.8W 922 90
1200UTC 11.09.2017 60 28.3N 82.1W 950 69
0000UTC 12.09.2017 72 31.5N 83.0W 971 55
1200UTC 12.09.2017 84 34.2N 84.8W 992 27
0000UTC 13.09.2017 96 35.9N 87.8W 998 17
1200UTC 13.09.2017 108 35.5N 89.7W 1002 13
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.09.2017
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 77.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2017 0 22.3N 77.1W 921 97
1200UTC 09.09.2017 12 22.5N 79.2W 940 85
0000UTC 10.09.2017 24 23.0N 80.6W 940 84
1200UTC 10.09.2017 36 23.9N 81.3W 933 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 48 25.8N 81.8W 922 90
1200UTC 11.09.2017 60 28.3N 82.1W 950 69
0000UTC 12.09.2017 72 31.5N 83.0W 971 55
1200UTC 12.09.2017 84 34.2N 84.8W 992 27
0000UTC 13.09.2017 96 35.9N 87.8W 998 17
1200UTC 13.09.2017 108 35.5N 89.7W 1002 13
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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
PandaCitrus wrote:What is going on and what does this mean for the models? Will the stall allow more time for the trough to break up the ridge and allow Irma to move east sooner than expected?
https://twitter.com/ChrisSuchanKCTV/status/906363792895987712
Did he mean Cuba THEN Florida, or Cuba THAN Florida?
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The Enthusiast
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Alyono wrote:MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.09.2017
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 77.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2017 0 22.3N 77.1W 921 97
1200UTC 09.09.2017 12 22.5N 79.2W 940 85
0000UTC 10.09.2017 24 23.0N 80.6W 940 84
1200UTC 10.09.2017 36 23.9N 81.3W 933 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 48 25.8N 81.8W 922 90
1200UTC 11.09.2017 60 28.3N 82.1W 950 69
0000UTC 12.09.2017 72 31.5N 83.0W 971 55
1200UTC 12.09.2017 84 34.2N 84.8W 992 27
0000UTC 13.09.2017 96 35.9N 87.8W 998 17
1200UTC 13.09.2017 108 35.5N 89.7W 1002 13
The UKMET takes it up thru Tampa. I assume this has the same data from NOAA?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
caneman wrote:Alyono wrote:MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.09.2017
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 77.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2017 0 22.3N 77.1W 921 97
1200UTC 09.09.2017 12 22.5N 79.2W 940 85
0000UTC 10.09.2017 24 23.0N 80.6W 940 84
1200UTC 10.09.2017 36 23.9N 81.3W 933 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 48 25.8N 81.8W 922 90
1200UTC 11.09.2017 60 28.3N 82.1W 950 69
0000UTC 12.09.2017 72 31.5N 83.0W 971 55
1200UTC 12.09.2017 84 34.2N 84.8W 992 27
0000UTC 13.09.2017 96 35.9N 87.8W 998 17
1200UTC 13.09.2017 108 35.5N 89.7W 1002 13
The UKMET takes it up thru Tampa. I assume this has the same data from NOAA?
the data is available to all of the models
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Local SFL Mets mentioning GFS shift
(The original question is if he thinks SE FL will get hurricane force sustained winds)
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906371229510197253
(The original question is if he thinks SE FL will get hurricane force sustained winds)
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906371229510197253
Last edited by Jevo on Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
floridasun78 wrote:will rest go east like gfs this cazy hurr to track models
Gfs east sf
Cmc east again back to se fl
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
U.K. met seems a "smidge" east. Seems to eat less of Cuba, and also a hair more east of key west.
Also has t up to 940 on its Cuba exit and back down to 920 near landfall.
With this set up I could really see the water, the outflow, everything helping her rally for the big finale tomorrow night. It's going to be a long night tomorrow night in the keys and south Florida.
Edit:If she keeps a core
Also has t up to 940 on its Cuba exit and back down to 920 near landfall.
With this set up I could really see the water, the outflow, everything helping her rally for the big finale tomorrow night. It's going to be a long night tomorrow night in the keys and south Florida.
Edit:If she keeps a core
Last edited by PTPatrick on Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Jevo wrote:Local SFL Mets mentioning GFS shift
(The original question is if he thinks SE FL will get hurricane force sustained winds)
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906371229510197253
wfor weather man saw new gfs too
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Jevo wrote:Local SFL Mets mentioning GFS shift
(The original question is if he thinks SE FL will get hurricane force sustained winds)
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906371229510197253
Doubtful. The GFS has had a terrible right bias with this system. The UKMET model which has been one of the more accurate shows no such thing. We'll see what Euro says. Ukmet is,exactly the same as 12 hours ago when near Tampa
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extraqueso
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
PTPatrick wrote:U.K. met seems a "smidge" east. Seems to eat less of Cuba, and also a hair more east of key west.
Also has t up to 940 on its Cuba exit and back down to 920 near landfall.
With this set up I could really see the water, the outflow, everything helping her rally for the big finale tomorrow night. It's going to be a long night tomorrow night in the keys and south Florida.
Edit:If she keeps a core
more like a denouement than a finale
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
joey wrote:floridasun78 wrote:will rest go east like gfs this cazy hurr to track models
Gfs east sf
Cmc east again back to se fl
Where did you get CMC ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
CMC with a HUGE west shift. Looks to be west of key west. Only through 30 hrs has come in, however
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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:joey wrote:floridasun78 wrote:will rest go east like gfs this cazy hurr to track models
Gfs east sf
Cmc east again back to se fl
Where did you get CMC ?
12z take it close to dade here run https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Alyono wrote:CMC with a HUGE west shift. Looks to be west of key west. Only through 30 hrs has come in, however
i do not that far west but who know
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
floridasun78 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:joey wrote:
Gfs east sf
Cmc east again back to se fl
Where did you get CMC ?
12z take it close to dade here run https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
That's old 12z
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
floridasun78 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:joey wrote:
Gfs east sf
Cmc east again back to se fl
Where did you get CMC ?
12z take it close to dade here run https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
I enjoyed that pin balling absurdity! Now up another night waiting on the Euro.
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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:The CMC is the most bipolar model I've ever seen.
you think would go far west? that mean miami see only ts wind if cms right
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