ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[BZSTORM]

I heard earlier that they are doing evacs by air.

that's good to hear, yesterday it was one dive boat ferrying ppl .

I have heard that we got everyone out of Barbuda with the help of Venezuelan cargo planes! Crazy that they were the ones to help with all that's going on there!

Wishing you all he best for next 48 hrs, keep safe, glad that some of you still have internet and yes helping hand can often come from unlikely sources.

[Nimbus]

Looks like Jose is finally turning more NW in time to miss Puerto Rico.

[AubreyStorm]

Looks like turning a huge change to west. PR will watch this very closely again.

[Extratropical94]

Center pass upcoming. They are flying SW-NE, so from the weakest to the strongest part of the storm.

[Ken711]

Is suppose to make a loop? Hope there's a trough that will ultimately sweep it OTS.

[galaxy401]

Jose appears to be weakening now. Cloud tops warming and eye is becoming less defined. Looks like we won't know it's peak intensity.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if the final BT will find those data reasonable from earlier and upgrade Jose to cat 5?

[Extratropical94]

Why do the communication issues with the AF planes always happen exactly one HDOB short of the center pass?
Both Jose and Irma are 'stuck' a few miles before the eye now.

[Extratropical94]

I wonder if the final BT will find those data reasonable from earlier and upgrade Jose to cat 5?

I guess they will. The wording in the discussion sounded as if they were pretty much certain it was stronger than 130 kts at some point.

Center pass upcoming. They are flying SW-NE, so from the weakest to the strongest part of the storm.

I stand corrected. They did a SW-SE pass.

[Gustywind]

BE SAFE AND DRY all my friends in the Leewards but especially for those who lived in the Northern Leewards!



000
WTNT32 KNHC 082352
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
800 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

...POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 JOSE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 58.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near
latitude 16.7 North, longitude 58.8 West. Jose is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin overnight and
continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of
Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based observations from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within
the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday
morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday
night.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple
of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Extratropical94]

Now they did a NE-NW pass and found these:

003030 1643N 05903W 6978 02672 9470 +162 +016 030069 073 107 003 03
003100 1644N 05904W 6970 02718 9528 +142 +027 034081 083 132 000 03
003130 1645N 05905W 6954 02780 9614 +104 +042 042098 105 142 011 00
003200 1647N 05906W 6953 02853 9719 +071 +039 049123 134 139 049 03
003230 1648N 05907W 7031 02815 9807 +054 +021 043119 134 /// /// 03

Darn close to cat.5. Probably was one earlier.

[Sciencerocks]

With smrf above 136 knots it probably is still one.

[Extratropical94]

With smrf above 136 knots it probably is still one.

I hope they amend the 00Z best track data to 140 just so we don't have to wait until the TCR is released.

[MrStormX]

With smrf above 136 knots it probably is still one.

I hope they amend the 00Z best track data to 140 just so we don't have to wait until the TCR is released.

You and me both.

[Extratropical94]

With smrf above 136 knots it probably is still one.

I hope they amend the 00Z best track data to 140 just so we don't have to wait until the TCR is released.

You and me both.

12L JOSE 170909 0000 16.7N 58.8W ATL 135 938

Aww come on, that's even worse than keeping it at 130.

[supercane4867]

12L JOSE 170909 0000 16.7N 58.8W ATL 135 938

Aww come on, that's even worse than keeping it at 130.

That's just pure sad....

[Sciencerocks]

I hope they amend the 00Z best track data to 140 just so we don't have to wait until the TCR is released.

You and me both.

12L JOSE 170909 0000 16.7N 58.8W ATL 135 938

Aww come on, that's even worse than keeping it at 130.

Based on what data do they go 135knt? They'd have to exclude the smrf data.

[supercane4867]

You and me both.

12L JOSE 170909 0000 16.7N 58.8W ATL 135 938

Aww come on, that's even worse than keeping it at 130.

Based on what data do they go 135knt? They'd have to exclude the smrf data.

Likely due to the fact that he's rapidly weakening already. A post-season upgrade to CAT5 is guaranteed in this case.

[Hammy]

12L JOSE 170909 0000 16.7N 58.8W ATL 135 938

Aww come on, that's even worse than keeping it at 130.

Based on what data do they go 135knt? They'd have to exclude the smrf data.

Likely due to the fact that he's rapidly weakening already. A post-season upgrade to CAT5 is guaranteed in this case.

Happened with Edouard in 2014 and Danny in 2015 too--the planes got there as they were weakening, so they went 5-10kt higher post-season.

[Yellow Evan]

is 142 knots SFMR all of a sudden not grounds for a Cat 5?