ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

Tampa is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. Tampa has issued mandatory evacuations. Please don't spread false info.

Tampa is not forecast to have 10+ feet of storm surge or more that would result in a direct hit. People are thinking Miami and not this scenario.

Well you are surprised anyway, but those paying attention would have understood that the west track was possible due to the error cone.

[RL3AO]

Tampa is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. Tampa has issued mandatory evacuations. Please don't spread false info.

Tampa is not forecast to have 10+ feet of storm surge or more that would result in a direct hit. People are thinking Miami and not this scenario.

Peak impacts in Tampa are 60 hours away. They aren't even under warnings yet. The surge forecast will increase for Tampa now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the main reason the models keep trending west is an underestimate of the strength of the ridge in the short-term. Irma is farther west by the time it begins the turn, so the end location is farther west.

[tolakram]

Here's 72, looking at higher rez to see where ti comes ashore. Is weather.us plotted yet?

[Maineman]

Would also get more time over the hot waters of the Gulf in that scenario... not good!

What is the upper level environment like in that area on the ECMWF?

You could check yourself, see parameter list, click to zoom in

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sea-level-pressure/20170910-1800z.html

[tolakram]

Landfall east of Goodland, in the Cape Romano area, mostly parkland.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Tampa is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. Tampa has issued mandatory evacuations. Please don't spread false info.

Tampa is not forecast to have 10+ feet of storm surge or more that would result in a direct hit. People are thinking Miami and not this scenario.

Peak impacts in Tampa are 60 hours away. They aren't even under warnings yet. The surge forecast will increase for Tampa now.

Problem here is, it takes 72 hours to evacuate Pinellas county for level C and under. That is without there being little to no gas available and with hotel rooms expected inland.

[tolakram]

[pgoss11]

Here's 72, looking at higher rez to see where ti comes ashore. Is weather.us plotted yet?

Looks like Irma would stronger taking that route just west of Jacksonville with more time over water.

[Nimbus]

12Z Euro initial position and north Florida points are the same with the ending surface pressure about 966 mb up from 957 mb last run.

The excursion close to Cuba may be the cause and NHC is probably right about the SST in the straits.

[HurricaneBelle]

So in the end, despite coming in at the southern extreme of Florida further west, it's not that far off the 00Z run or the NHC track as it moves almost due north, perhaps a shade east of north, when with the 00Z it ran NNW.

[ronjon]

Ugh!!! This is not good...stop the west shifts now! I need to see the high resolution Euro...this is turning my stomach.

[jdjaguar]

Pay particular attention to the 5 pm discussion from NHC.
They will have digested this run as well as the latest GFS.

[adam0983]

What model called for hurricane Irma to move due west now.

[northjaxpro]

The west shift continues with the EURO. My goodness, the HP ridge was stout indeed. However, I still am holding on to my reasoning that Irma has effectively "pumped the ridge"which the models have apparently not been able to detect.

I would not be shocked if Irma emerges briefly into the extreme SE GOM off the SW tip of the peninsula as the north turn commences.

[tolakram]

UKM Insisted this would hit Cuba and come in west and once again many of us (including me) figured it was wrong. Let's see just how close to the UKM track it gets. The 12z numbers should be arriving soon, here is last nights track.

[NDG]

12z Euro shows 140 mph wind gusts over Marco Island and Naples.
102 mph wind gusts over Miami
120 mph wind gusts to Ft Myers
100 mph wind gust to Sarasota & St Pete area
110 mph wind gusts to Kissimmee
100-110 mph wind gusts to Orlando area
100 mph wind gusts to the entire east-central coast of FL
100-110 mph wind gusts to NE FL coast

[Maineman]

Ugh!!! This is not good...stop the west shifts now! I need to see the high resolution Euro...this is turning my stomach.

High resolution as it gets

Pressure

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/810-w-258-n/sea-level-pressure/20170910-2100z.html

Gusts

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/810-w-258-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-2100z.html

Direction and sustained speed

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/810-w-258-n/windspeed-barbs/20170910-2100z.html

[Maineman]

12z Euro shows 140 mph wind gusts over Marco Island and Naples.
102 mph wind gusts over Miami
120 mph wind gusts to Ft Myers
100 mph wind gust to Sarasota & St Pete area
110 mph wind gusts to Kissimmee
100-110 mph wind gusts to Orlando area
100 mph wind gusts to the entire east-central coast of FL
100-110 mph wind gusts to NE FL coast

Indeed

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/814-w-261-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-2100z.html

[JaxGator]

Here's 72, looking at higher rez to see where ti comes ashore. Is weather.us plotted yet?

Is Irma making a right hook there at the end? This run is just horrible for SW Florida, Tampa Bay and the Big Bend...