ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

12z GFS 18hrs... @25 miles SE of 06z...

NW at 30H and deepening @ 919mb. Cat 5?

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 36hrs... SW of 06z... NHC is so good and the error was within their cone, but Irma looks to be shifting more W and I think the NHC will take an unfair pounding from uneducated public opinion, JMHO...

[joey]

12z GFS 18hrs... @25 miles SE of 06z...

NW at 30H and deepening @ 919mb. Cat 5?

now at 898 mb over fl wow

[Steve]

12z GFS 36hrs... SW of 06z... NHC is so good and the error was within their cone, but Irma looks to be shifting more W and I think the NHC will take a pounding from public opinion, JMHO...

I disagree. Look at the weather distribution. It's going to be bad 50 miles one way or the other.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

And I was wrong. Still intensifying at 42 hours about to landfall.

[SunnyThoughts]

Keys are going to be devistated if this run pans out. And man I hope that intensity is wayyy overdone

[adam0983]

Will palm beach county be spared now with the west shift of the models?

[Frank P]

GFS refuses to back off on those intensity levels... for Florida's sake (nothing personal against Cuba) gotta hope that the eye wall at least gets a good brush from the Cuba northern coast... and knocks those winds down somewhat... worse case scenario obviously is no significant land interaction with Cuba...

[Steve]

Will palm beach county be spared now with the west shift of the models?

I know you're nervous but just look at the model. What do you think?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

That's like 12ish hours in the Eastern Eyewall. It's not going to be pretty over in PB Co.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 66 hrs... Just SSW of 06z... Near Orlando

[PandaCitrus]

The average track forecast error in the 48 hour range is about 50 miles for the National Hurricane Center. If this verifies with Irma, it's going to either direct hit the south east florida coast or southwest Florida coast. Very unlikely the exact current tract will stay the same.

[miamijaaz]

Is Irma moving NNW at hours 60-72 on the latest GFS run?

[Blown Away]

Many EPS ensembles W of Peninsula, Continued W shift of GFS, and Euro likes to stay just W of GFS... It may be possible for Irma to go W of Florida...

[caneman]

Many EPS ensembles W of Peninsula, Continued W shift of GFS, and Euro likes to stay just W of GFS... It may be possible for Irma to go W of Florida...

That's my biggest fear. Everyone here in Tampa Bay expecting 70 to 80 and it slips on up thru Ft. Meyers or sarasota. Don't think anyone is prepared to that level

[SunnyThoughts]

Fla/Ga line at 78. Just to west of Jacksonville.

[Blown Away]

Is Irma moving NNW at hours 60-72 on the latest GFS run?

Yes, then NW after 72

[Steve]

Is Irma moving NNW at hours 60-72 on the latest GFS run?

Yeah on the map it is. Obviously it's flattened but it's at least West of due north if not NNW. It still has a western component in Southern Georgia at 84 hours as anticipated.

[Blown Away]

Nothing I've seen would make me think the NHC track won't shift W again at next advisory, especially if Euro does...

[adam0983]

Both coasts of Florida can get the eye of hurricane Irma due to wobbles and model error.

[Canelaw99]

This is a much bigger storm than Charley, even if it tracks a little closer to west coast like the Euro is showing the east coast of FL will still feel Cat 2-3 conditions, so I am by no way saying the east coast is off the hook.

Ya i am a bit confused by the east coast is better off talk, i show the official track going right through fortymile Bend which is 45 miles west of downtown Miami, if you cut the eye in radius in half that puts Miami 25 mils from the eye on the north east side.

Seems pretty bad scenario to me.

Pretty bad is much better than cat 4/5 bad. Yes there could be a wiggle but seeing western consensus is cathartic in a very bittersweet way for east coasters.

As someone riding it out in Homestead, it is extremely nice to see the eye possibly going further west as opposed to directly over my head!

[CronkPSU]

12z GFS 66 hrs... Just SSW of 06z... Near Orlando

I know the GFS is the outlier and overaggressive on strength but what kind of weakening did it have as it went near Orlando?