ATL: IRMA - Models

[opticsguy]

6Z NAM still to the east.

[NDG]

bastardi went west to the upper keys, lets see how the next gfs does and of course euro run ensembles...even if stays west on the models i dont trust that it cant come back east, wobbles and these can do strange things as they approach landflall..another thing is cuba interaction...lots of unknowns....i realize to some people we are splitting hairs but in SE florida literally every mile makes a difference for us as to whether we lose roof tiles or lose roofs

I think today's 12z Euro run will be it, close to the final landfall in southern FL, it has been doing really well in its 48 hr forecast. But it will be interesting if it ends up where it was showing landfall across SW FL a few days ago in its medium to long range forecast.

yes, then it becomes wobble watching...hopefully we can get some land interaction with cuba and knock it down a category

Even if she makes landfall that northern side of central Cuba is not Mountainous at all and it will be for only a few hours, then it will have 14-16 hrs over the FL Straights before making landfall in S FL to strengthen more over upper 80s SSTs and light shear, also its outflow will be tapping into the UL trough over the NE US to help it re-intensify.

[caneman]

6Z NAM still to the east.

NAM has proven to be more than unreliable and shouldn't even be used for entertainment purposes

[SkeetoBite]

0Z Euro run

My greatest fear for the past few days.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Fl on avg coast to coast is 160 miles wide. 40 mile wide eye means that 1/4th of FL Penn will be in eyewall conditions on the journey north if math is?right....or close to right..

[caneman]

Fl on avg coast to coast is 160 miles wide. 40 mile wide eye means that 1/4th of FL Penn will be in eyewall conditions on the journey north if math is?right....or close to right..

Let than than that. From Tampa to Cape Canaveral only 120 miles. Naples to Miami I believe only 60 to 80 miles

[tolakram]

6z HWRF

[caneman]

0Z Euro run

My greatest fear for the past few days.

Agreed,
Most systems that hit Florida only affect about a 1/3rd of the state. This will affect nearly all or 75 to 80 percent.

[SkeetoBite]

Fl on avg coast to coast is 160 miles wide. 40 mile wide eye means that 1/4th of FL Penn will be in eyewall conditions on the journey north if math is?right....or close to right..

Ignoring the narrowing at southern Florida, the minimum distance is 102.7 air miles from the Gulf coast of Crystal River Preserve State Park to Ormond Beach, just north of Daytona Beach.

So, yeah.

Edit: This should probably be in the discussion thread though. Things will get real hectic in here in a few hours.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is the 3km NAM known for over-deepening storms? I would assume so...I know the 12km is notorious for being bad with anything that's not synoptics. FWIW, 3km scrapes the coast with a monster after deepening Irma to <900mb in the Straights.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=389

[tolakram]

Is the 3km NAM known for over-deepening storms? I would assume so...I know the 12km is notorious for being bad with anything that's not synoptics. FWIW, 3km scrapes the coast with a monster after deepening Irma to <900mb in the Straights.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=389

The NAM is not designed for topical storms but good for upper air and land based convection.

[NDG]

Wind gusts forecast by last night's Euro, even though it shifted westward with the strongest winds forecasted over the middle Keys and west of Miami all of SE FL will get wind gusts over 100 mph, with western Miami getting 120 mph wind gusts. As it tracks north over north central & north FL it starts expanding with the strongest winds over the coastal areas with over 110 mph wind gusts. Very interesting transformation & events as it gets to this area for sure.

[opticsguy]

NAM has proven to be more than unreliable and shouldn't even be used for entertainment purposes

There were a few gulf systems in the past the the NAM did pretty well on. IIRC it was pretty good with Sandy also. It's good entertainment, especially since the models come out 3 hours earlier than the GFS.

[tolakram]

The "06z" plots

[gatorcane]

Decent shift west for the 12Z:

[NDG]

And to think that just 24 hrs ago people on the west coast of FL were thinking that they had dodge a bullet. Long live the King!

[ava_ati]

[quote="NDG"]Wind gusts forecast by last night's Euro, even though it shifted westward with the strongest winds forecasted over the middle Keys and west of Miami all of SE FL will get wind gusts over 100 mph, with western Miami getting 120 mph wind gusts. As it tracks north over north central & north FL it starts expanding with the strongest winds over the coastal areas with over 110 mph wind gusts. Very interesting transformation & events as it gets to this area for sure.

i.imgur.com/CThAlfG.gif
https://i.imgur.com/cXe2J3A.gif

Where do you get those gust maps from?

[Jevo]

6Z NAM still to the east.

NAM has proven to be more than unreliable and shouldn't even be used for entertainment purposes

The NAM 48 hours out is a rock star at 500mb... Storm tracking, I agree its not the one to watch.

[Jevo]

As someone on the SE coast of Florida I was less concerned yesterday with a path directly up our coast than I am now... If the NHC or even the Euro verifies the wind forecast puts all of populated metro SE Florida in Hurricane force winds for most of Sunday daytime

[caneman]

6Z NAM still to the east.

NAM has proven to be more than unreliable and shouldn't even be used for entertainment purposes

The NAM 48 hours out is a rock star at 500mb... Storm tracking, I agree its not the one to watch.

It hasn't been thus far